TAJIKISTAN - DAS GEORGE KROL'S MEETINGS WITH TAJIK

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001401 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018 TAGS: EAID ECON EINV PREL PHUM PGOV TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN - DAS GEORGE KROL'S MEETINGS WITH TAJIK CIVIL SOCIETY, BUSINESS, AND THE MEDIA REF: DUSHANBE 1370 Classified By: AMBASSADOR TRACEY A. JACOBSON, 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: During his three-day visit to Tajikistan, DAS Krol met with representatives of local businesses and foreign investors, international donors, civil society, and journalists. He visited the U.S.-funded bridge to Afghanistan at Nizhniy Pyanj, and Food for Peace-funded agricultural training and rural poverty relief programs. Donors, business, and civil society leaders still did not see much progress in economic or political liberalization in Tajikistan, were worried about the impact of the international financial crisis on Tajikistan's undiversified economy, and differed markedly from the President in their views of Tajikistan's economic prospects and governmental performance. End Summary. Civil Society and Business -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At a November 10 roundtable discussion held at the embassy, civil society representatives raised serious concerns about the government's ability and willingness to promote civil and political rights. They noted that the country's legislative framework, including regulations on NGO registration, was not up to international standards. Important draft laws, including one on violence against women, were stuck somewhere in the legislative process. Journalists engaged in self-censorship; they understood that some subjects, such as in-depth reporting on President Rahmon and his inner circle, were off limits. Government officials had little or no accountability, which allowed corruption to flourish and the investment climate to deteriorate. Law enforcement agencies were out of control, and most people were unaware of their rights. The government had no coherent social policy; young people saw no prospects for the future, and respect for women's rights was deteriorating. Two years of rising prices and stagnant wages had started to take their toll on President Rahmon's reputation, but the country's deteriorating economic situation meant citizens were more concerned about survival and less about agitating for basic reforms. ¶3. (SBU) On November 11 DAS Krol lunched with business representatives, who voiced concerns similar to those of the civil society representatives. They noted that many initiatives from the top of the government were slowed, or simply disappeared at the mid-levels. For example, tax inspectors were attempting to revive tax inspections on which the President had declared a two-year moratorium. While there seemed to be political will at the top to improve the investment climate, this did not translate into action at lower levels. At a regional level, they recounted the difficulties of moving goods across borders, making Tajikistan a very expensive and hard-to-access place to invest. Press Conference -------------- ¶4. (SBU) At a November 11 press conference, two topics piqued reporters' interest - what Barack Obama's win might mean for United States policy in general and Tajikistan in particular, and; how Krol would respond to criticism (raised earlier that day at the conference on Central Asia and Afghanistan) that failed U.S. policies in Afghanistan had resulted in resurgence of the Taliban and drug trafficking. About 30 Qresurgence of the Taliban and drug trafficking. About 30 journalists representing Tajik, Russian, American, and British media packed the press hall to get the scoop. ¶5. (SBU) Krol told the journalists he had discussed "everything under the sun" during his 2 1/2 hour meeting with President Rahmon (septel),i.e., Afghanistan, prospects of the Obama presidential administration, preparations for the upcoming winter in Tajikistan, and the development of Tajik society and state institutions. Krol noted that in the course of his discussion with President Rahmon there had been differences of opinion about the pace and approach to developing democratic institutions and values. One journalist asked for clarification on this point - Krol replied that the United States and Tajikistan had different ideas about the pace and approach to building democratic institutions in Tajikistan, but the two governments were in general agreement on principles, which was why they had a good dialogue. ¶6. (SBU) When asked to comment on the "worsening" situation in Afghanistan, Krol said that there were clear connections between drug trafficking and terrorism that the Taliban exploited to destabilize the government. He said the United States, along with Central Asian countries, Europe, China, Russia, and Iran needed to work together to "stem the tide" of opium production and trafficking, and noted that 18 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces were now poppy free. Responding to a question about reconciliation, he said if the GOA chose to include Taliban, the Taliban first had to lay down their arms and recognize the constitutional order. ¶7. (SBU) Krol urged those present not to expect sharp changes in U.S. efforts in Central Asia, noted the President-elect's personal experience outside the United States and the Vice-President-elect's strong foreign policy experience, and said the economic development of Central Asia "would be hard to consider" without including Iran, which had historical, political, cultural ties to the region. But Iran in turn had to understand that it must work responsibly with other international partners and not in isolation; we would "expect changes from Iran." IFI Situation -------------- ¶8. (C) On November 11, DAS Krol met with representatives of international financial institutions (IFIs),donors, and non-profit organizations to discuss development and the economy in Tajikistan. While government officials have publicly played down any local fallout from the world financial crises, in part because of Tajikistan's relatively undeveloped and insulated banking sector, several of those DAS Krol spoke to voiced concern. Chiara Bronchi of the World Bank said that the Minister of Economic Development and Trade admitted to her privately that he was "worried" about the situation, fearing that remittances from Tajiks working abroad, particularly in Russia, would decline as a result of the economic slowdown. Rudy Schoch of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation said a government official told him that remittances are already slowing: while on the whole fund transfers into the country have been 70% higher this year than last, for the month of October the difference was only 20%. Luc Moers of the IMF added that low cotton commodity prices could bring down export revenue, further exacerbating conditions here. Representatives of the IFI and donor communities said the government had been appropriately focused on energy over the coming winter, although, as in every year, there would be serious rationing across most of the country (reftel). All agreed, however, that there had been almost no attention paid to food security. ¶9. (SBU) The next day DAS Krol and Ambassador visited the U.S.-funded bridge between Afghanistan and Tajikistan at Nizhniy Pyanj. Tajik authorities had yet to move into newly-built customs and border processing facilities adjacent to the bridge, preferring instead to work in a dusty lot off to one side of the complex. (Embassy suspects they have not occupied the new facilities because the various Tajik Qoccupied the new facilities because the various Tajik government agencies have not yet agreed on bribe-taking modalities there). But 150 to 200 trucks per day crossed the bridge, most from Afghanistan into Tajikistan. In the afternoon, DAS Krol visited two USAID-funded projects run by Save the Children in the Khatlon region. Beneficiaries expressed their gratitude to DAS Krol for U.S. assistance with cash and wheat seed distribution, training in canning and preserving, and health promotion. During the visits DAS Krol and the Ambassador fielded questions from journalists not only about U.S. involvement in these projects but also about the change in administration in Washington. ¶10. (C) Comment: The comments of all DAS Krol's interlocutors sharply contrasted with the optimistic speechifying President Rahmon inflicted on Krol, showed the wide gap in perceptions of the situation between the government leadership and local business and civil society leaders. Winter power rationing began last month with areas of the country outside Dushanbe getting only six to seven hours of electricity per day. The criticisms from civil society representatives about media self-censorship, were not disproven at the press conference; although journalists here do not hesitate to question foreign officials about their assessments of the state of democracy in Tajikistan, in the Embassy's experience local journalists are rarely, if ever, willing to raise the same questions with their own government officials. End Comment. ¶11. (U) DAS Krol cleared this message. JACOBSON