GEORGIA ON THEIR MIND: TAJIK MEDIA REACTS CAUTIOUSLY TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001107 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL KMDR KPAO TI SUBJECT: GEORGIA ON THEIR MIND: TAJIK MEDIA REACTS CAUTIOUSLY TO ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA ¶1. (U) Summary: The Tajik media, in its coverage of Russian actions in Georgia, has mainly copied Russian media reports, or offered local opinion on the meaning of the dispute for Central Asia. As could be expected, it has not criticized Russia, and has instead focused heavily on the role of the United States and multilateral organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States in the dispute. Television news has either played down the incident or broadcast one-sided reporting by Russian stations. End summary. ¶2. (U) No Tajik newspaper has a correspondent in Georgia, so all reporting from Georgia consisted of reprints directly from Russian newspapers. As the conflict wore on, the spot reporting dropped from about 90% to 50% of local coverage, with the rest of Georgia-related articles devoted to local analysis and speculation on how the dispute would affect Tajikistan and the region in general. JUST THIS SWEET OLD COLD WAR SONG ¶3. (U) Newspapers relied heavily on interviews and roundtables with local pundits, including members of the government. The experts overwhelmingly cited the United States' influence in Georgia as a cause of the conflict. Many pointed to evidence of a "new cold war" between Russia and the United States, and cited the proposed missile defense shield in Europe and the expansion of NATO to include Georgia and Ukraine as catalysts for the conflict. One former Radio Free Liberty/Radio Europe reporter wrote that the conflict was a "dream" of the "imperialistic" United States, but cautioned that Russia might attack a Central Asian country in a similar fashion. ¶4. (U) Russian opinion dominated the media, particularly television and radio, which carried statements by Russia's United Nations Ambassador live. Local news continued to devote most of its airtime to the doings of President Rahmon, with occasional Russian reports from Georgia. The Tajik edition of Argumenti I Fakti featured a front page photo illustration of President Sakashvilli nursing at the breast of Condoleezza Rice - this in a society where baring your knees is risque. OTHER ARMS REACH OUT TO ME... ¶5. (U) On the eve of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Dushanbe, many journalists and commentators predicted that the Georgia situation would change the tone of the organization's discussions, and some urged SCO countries to express their support for Russia's actions during the summit. ¶6. (U) Commentators made much of Georgia's withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States, which inspired a debate as to the organization's relevance. Some editorialists blamed the Commonwealth for not mediating the dispute earlier, but many commentators said that this proved its worthlessness as a mechanism for addressing disputes between member states. Newspapers argued that Russia now would pressure former CIS states to decide whether "they are with Russia or with the United States." ¶7. (SBU) Possibly in response to events in Georgia, the Government of Tajikistan made a point of showing SCO members that it had other friends too. In the week before the summit the Government quickly agreed to hold two signing ceremonies for USG grant assistance in the areas of border security and energy resource development. The Minister of Foreign Affairs personally attended one ceremony, offering champagne (and strong press coverage) to celebrate the event. The other ceremony also featured television coverage and Ministerial attendance. ...BUT THE ROAD LEADS BACK TO YOU ¶7. (U) While most reports stopped short of expressing full support Q7. (U) While most reports stopped short of expressing full support for Russia's actions, many commentators pointed to Tajikistan's historical and contemporary ties to Russia as too important to sacrifice in an ideological debate. One Parliamentarian told a reporter that former Soviet republics should not only accept Russia's assistance, but should actively promote and defend Russia's interests in tough situations. Several commentators said that Tajikistan would face a "choice" between Russia and the United States, and they were unanimous in their opinion that Russia was the only choice. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: The Tajik media interpret Georgia's fate as a warning to other former Soviet states who get too close to the United States. With the SCO summit looming over Dushanbe, the events in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have inspired speculation in the press about the "right" path for Tajikistan and its neighbors - that is, a path that will appease Russia, but leave some room for maneuver. End comment. DUSHANBE 00001107 002 OF 002 JACOBSON