POLITICAL NOTES FROM DURBAN AND CAPE TOWN

UNCLAS DURBAN 000057 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: POLITICAL NOTES FROM DURBAN AND CAPE TOWN ANC is Confident in KwaZulu Natal ¶1. (SBU) African National Congress (ANC) Provincial chairperson and Provincial Minister for Finance and Economic Development Dr. Zweli Mkhize told Consul General and P/E Assistant in an introductory call in late September that he was confident that the ANC would win 60 percent of the vote in upcoming provincial elections in KwaZulu Natal (KZN). He attributed the anticipated success at the polls to the ANC's superior record of service delivery in the province, in a range of areas. Dr. Mkhize claimed that intra-party unity in the province was good and even relations with the opposition Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) were positive. He would not comment on the widely-held expectation that he would succeed Sibusiso Ndebele as Premier of KZN or even receive a national Cabinet portfolio, demurely noting, 'the ANC first must focus on winning the election.' (Comment: We consider a sacking of Ndebele as unlikely in KZN province, as the ANC will need to rely on all party elements for support in order to win the elections. End comment.) Analysts are Critical ¶2. (SBU) Meanwhile, two POLITICAL analysts from the University of KZN voiced disappointment in the ANC's record of service delivery in the province, highlighting problems with education, policing and infrastructure. They told CG and P/E Asst in a late September meeting that they were not convinced the ANC would win the election, and confided that some diehard ANC supporters in KZN were so discouraged that they would likely not vote at all. Although intrigued by the rumors of a split in the ANC, neither thought such a development would occur before 2009 elections or that it would decrease ANC's support significantly. IFP Strategizes--at Provincial and National Level ¶3. (SBU) Reverend Musa Zondi of the IFP told CG and P/E Asst on October 3 that his party has a realistic shot at winning the province back in 2009. The IFP, which has a strong support base in rural areas, will highlight the failure of the ANC to provide services and infrastructure in certain rural districts. Rev. Zondi acknowledged that the ANC had gained support in KZN since it came into power in 2004, based on greater service delivery in some rural settings. He also confirmed that Ms. Zanele Magwaza Msibi will be the IFP's candidate for the KZN premiership. (Comment: Rev. Zondi, who represents the moderates in the IFP, lost out to Ms. Msibi in the intra-IFP nomination process; she had the backing of Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, who is a traditionalist/hardliner. This choice is surprising, considering the male-dominated cultural traditions within the hardline camp of the party; and although she might do the bidding of Buthelezi, she does not a have strong public profile and could have a hard time wooing voters to the IFP. End comment). ¶4. (SBU) As part of its election campaign commencement, Chief Buthelezi launched the party's voter registration campaign on Saturday, October 4. (Comment: The early start of the election campaign indicates the IFP's seriousness about winning the province. It can also be seen as IFP's strategic response to the Independent Electoral Commission's announcement that KZN is the province with the highest number of unregistered voters. End comment.) ¶5. (SBU) Cape Town Econoff met with IFP MP Eric Lucas on 26 September. Lucas said the IFP is working through its election strategy at the moment, and is currently employing a local consultant to help map out the road ahead. The party is most focused on its traditional KZN heartland, though it sees opportunities for growth in Gauteng, Free State, and Mpumalanga. Still, Lucas noted 10 percent of the national vote probably would be the best case scenario. Money, per usual, is a big problem, and complicated by the fact that Durban businesses--long a key source of support--are throwing their lot behind Jacob Zuma. The party is focused on trying to bring in younger voters, though Lucas worries whether the party leadership is sufficiently responsive on this issue. He thinks the party needs new blood in Parliament, though it's unclear how much of a turnover in the IFP ranks there will be. Many older MPs who should go balk at the R5000 per month pension, which they do not think is enough. ¶6. (SBU) Post collaborated with CG Cape Town and Embassy Pretoria POLITICAL Section on this message. DERDERIAN