IRISH WILL RECOGNIZE KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 000081 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV OSCE EI SUBJECT: IRISH WILL RECOGNIZE KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE, BUT WILL NOT BE FIRST IN LINE REF: A. STATE 14284 ¶B. STATE 13716 ¶C. DUBLIN 43 Classified By: Pol/Econ Section Chief Ted Pierce; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) POLOFF delivered demarche (Ref B) on February 13, 2008 to Jim Kelly, Director, Europe and UN Coordination Division, Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA). Kelly reiterated the statements of DFA Political Director Rory Montgomery on January 18 (Ref C) that Ireland, without question, would recognize Kosovo's independence, but would not be among the first tranche of countries to do so. Saying that Ireland regretted the issue had not been resolved through agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, Kelly noted that Ireland would waste no time in recognizing Kosovo, but needed to proceed in a measured and deliberate manner. Among other things, Kelly said, the actual declaration of independence would need to be made before recognition could be considered by Cabinet. (Note: Recognition will not require approval of the full Parliament. End note.) ¶2. (C) Kelly stated that Ireland would be working hard within EU corridors to achieve the "maximum common approach" to the issue rather than accepting the "lowest common denominator approach." He predicted that 22 of the 27 Member States would eventually recognize independence, listing Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Spain as possible hold-outs and Cyprus as firmly opposed. Kelly said that Ireland's goals in Kosovo were to minimize turbulence and instability following independence; offer attractive economic stimulus packages to both Kosovo and Serbia; and deal with Kosovo's independence in the overall context of EU initiatives (including a possible Stabilization and Association Agreement with Serbia),rather than as an extraordinary step. ¶3. (C) Regarding the invocation of the Berlin Mechanism, Kelly agreed with the USG assessment and predicted that Serbia would not be able to garner sufficient support in OSCE to initiate the process. FOLEY