BAD NEWS CONTINUES FOR IRISH PRIME MINISTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000625 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV IE SUBJECT: BAD NEWS CONTINUES FOR IRISH PRIME MINISTER REF: (A) DUBLIN 577 AND PREVIOUS (B) DUBLIN 400 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The government of Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen has suffered a surge of bad news in recent weeks. Declining public support, uncertain relations with the European Union stemming from Ireland's defeat of the Lisbon Treaty, and challenges to his leadership continue to beleaguer him. Though no one is suggesting that Cowen's coalition government is imperiled - at least for the moment - more bad economic news lies on the horizon and the public appears increasingly restive as a result of Ireland's economic downturn and rising unemployment. Cowen will need to navigate a careful tack in coming weeks to avoid further erosion of his authority and credibility. End summary. -------------- Public Support for Government Dives Sharply -------------- ¶2. (U) As Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Brian Cowen continues to struggle with the global financial crisis, his recent austerity budget, rising unemployment, and the fall-out of Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty in June 2008 (Ref A),a new Irish Times poll finds that he has rapidly lost public support in recent months. Conducted on November 10 and 11, the poll determined that support for the government has fallen to 18 percent, a drop of 28 points since the last Irish Times poll in June 2008 - and the government's lowest level since the Irish Times began polling in the early 1980s. Satisfaction with Cowen has fallen by 21 points to 26 percent, while satisfaction with Cowen's Fianna Fail party has fallen 15 points to 27 percent. According to the poll, the opposition party Fine Gael now enjoys the support of 34 percent of those polled - a seven-point lead over Fianna Fail and the first time ever that an Irish Times poll found Fine Gael more popular than Fianna Fail. Fine Gael's leader Enda Kenny was found to be more popular than Cowen. -------------- Lisbon Treaty Fall-Out Continues -------------- ¶3. (U) The Irish Government was angered by comments made by Czech President, Vaclav Klaus, on September 11 during a state visit to Ireland. Following a meeting with Cowen, Klaus declared he was under the impression that Ireland was not in a hurry to find a solution to the Lisbon Treaty referendum defeat. Foreign Minister Micheal Martin described Klaus' comments as "ridiculous and inappropriate." The Irish were also annoyed by Klaus' decision to attend a dinner in his honor on September 11, hosted by anti-Lisbon Treaty campaigner Declan Ganley, who Klaus compared to a dissident fighting Soviet oppression. The government is downplaying the public row and insists that the spat will not damage relations between Dublin and Prague. (Note: The Czech Republic is one of only two other EU member states that have not ratified the Lisbon Treaty. The Czech Republic takes over the six-monthly rotating presidency of the EU in January 2009. End note.) ¶4. (U) Meanwhile, Ganley has set up his Libertas movement (Ref B) as a pan-European political party and established a structure to raise money. The Companies Registration Office in Dublin has acknowledged receipt of registration documents for The Libertas Party Ltd. and the Libertas Foundation Ltd., based at Ganley's home address in Tuam, County Galway. The establishment of the two entities will enable Ganley to run candidates in next June's European Parliament elections should he choose to do so. Libertas continues to travel through Europe, speaking to potential candidates. Members of French Eurosceptic party, Mouvement pour la France (MPF),have reportedly indicated their willingness to stand as candidates for Libertas in the June European Parliament election. -------------- The Demise of the Progressive Democrats -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On November 8, members of the Progressive Democratic (PD) Party voted to wind-up the party after 23 years of existence. The party's two members of Parliament, Health Minister Mary Harney and Noel Grealish, are expected to continue to support the Fianna Fail/Green coalition government. Harney will remain an independent Member of Parliament, while Grealish is likely to join Fianna Fail. The party was founded in 1985 by former Fianna Fail member Des O'Malley, advocating fundamental tax reform, a clear distinction between church and state, and a peaceful approach to problems in Northern Ireland. Formerly, part of the governing coalition with Fianna Fail following the 1997 and 2002 elections, only two PD Members of Parliament were elected in the 2007 general election. (Comment: It is ironic that the PD party has collapsed amid similar DUBLIN 00000625 002 OF 002 political and economic circumstances that fostered its creation in the 1980s. However, the party is now too weak to offer political leadership and its demise is unlikely have any significant impact on the current government. End comment.) -------------- Brian Cowen's Authority Further Challenged -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On November 13, Cowen's leadership of Fianna Fail was further challenged when Fianna Fail member of Parliament Jim McDaid refused to support the Government in a vote in Parliament. McDaid, a medical doctor by profession, automatically lost Fianna Fail party privileges as a result of his failure to support the Government's effort to scrap a Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination program for 12-year-old girls (because of the cost). He could be asked to leave the party. In October, Fianna Fail Member of Parliament Joe Behan resigned from the party and independent Member of Parliament Finian McGrath withdrew his support of Fianna Fail in protest at health and education cutbacks announced in the austerity Budget. Nonetheless, McDaid and Behan are likely to support the Government in future, less controversial votes. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In spite of the surge of additional bad news over the past few weeks, Cowen's government still holds a comfortable majority in the Parliament. No one is suggesting - for the moment - that his coalition is in trouble. Nonetheless, with more bad economic news lying on the horizon, an increasingly restive public, and uncertain relations with the European Union, Cowen will need to navigate a careful tack in coming weeks to avoid further erosion of his authority and credibility. Pierce