IRISH STUDY IDENTIFIES REASONS FOR LISBON TREATY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000513 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EI SUBJECT: IRISH STUDY IDENTIFIES REASONS FOR LISBON TREATY DEFEAT REF: DUBLIN 431 DUBLIN 00000513 001.2 OF 002 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. The Government of Ireland has released the results of research it commissioned to establish the reasons behind the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the Irish electorate in a referendum on June 12, 2008. Topping the list of voters' concerns were fears that adopting the Treaty might result in loss of influence for Ireland, an increase in the corporate income tax (and loss of foreign direct investment),an abandonment of Ireland's traditional neutrality, the loss of a full-time EU Commissioner, potential changes in the abortion law (away from its pro-life stance),the possibility of Irishmen being conscripted into an European army, and loss of workers' rights. Moreover, the research showed that at least 40 percent of those voting 'No' did so because they felt they did not have enough information in the run-up to the election. Foreign Minister Michael Martin's call today for the Irish "to work together to address the challenges facing Ireland in Europe in the wake of the referendum result," acknowledges the tough job facing the Government of Ireland. End summary. -------------- The Government's View of the EU -------------- ¶2. On September 8, Minister for European Affairs Dick Roche told a German diplomatic audience that the results of the referendum were a "deep disappointment" to the Irish Government and should not be interpreted as suggesting that the Irish people have suddenly become euro-skeptic. He pointed out that an April 2008 Eurobarometer survey showed that 73 percent of Irish people believed that EU membership has been a good thing, while only 6 percent thought it has been bad. He stressed that Ireland did not want to be "at odds" with its EU partners and highlighted the "positive and constructive EU stance" taken by successive Irish governments. He said that the Government was engaged in careful and serious analysis of the referendum's outcome and its implications in order to devise a national way forward. He cautioned that there would be no easy solutions. ¶3. Roche summarized the situation facing the Irish, saying that the Lisbon Treaty was the product of many years of hard work involving compromises and concessions, and that the 24 Member States who have ratified the Treaty did so because 
they thought it was the best deal that could be achieved for their own countries and the Union. (He predicted that all 26 Member States would ratify the Treaty by year's end, leaving Ireland as the only holdout.) Roche went on to say that there is no great opposition to the Treaty across Europe and that there is no appetite in Europe for renegotiation of the Treaty. He said he regretted that Ireland seemed to be aligned with people and organizations that "see the EU as anathema, who reject the very basis on which the EU is built, who deny its wonderful achievements and who desire to replace it with something weaker." He declared that this was not in Ireland's interest. ¶4. Invoking similarities among EU Member States, Roche said that important lessons from the referendum were that the EU has failed to communicate what the Union does in clear and coherent language, and that the people of Europe do not understand the basic functioning of the EU. He proposed that the EU devise a user-friendly narrative to describe the EU that "speaks to the heart of its citizens as well as to their minds and wallets." He pointed out that the highly detailed, technical, and lengthy Treaty document was "unreadable," which had left the document open to deliberate misrepresentation and misinterpretation by 'No' campaigners. -------------- The 'No' Arguments that Carried the Day -------------- ¶5. On September 10, Minister for Foreign Affairs Michael Martin unveiled the results of research commissioned by the Irish Government to establish the reasons behind the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the Irish electorate in a referendum on June 12, 2008. The research indicated that the Irish electorate was worried that adopting the Treaty might result in loss of influence for Ireland, an increase in the corporate income tax (and subsequent loss of foreign direct investment) and an abandonment of Ireland's traditional neutrality. Martin revealed that voters were also concerned about losing a full-time EU Commissioner, potential changes in the abortion law (away from its pro-life stance),the DUBLIN 00000513 002.2 OF 002 possibility of Irishmen being conscripted into an European army, and loss of workers' rights. ¶6. Martin noted that the survey demonstrated that voters did not have enough information in the run-up to the election. Lack of adequate information, he said, was the biggest reason given by voters for voting 'No' or abstaining. He pointed out that 40 percent of those who voted against the Treaty cited lack of information, which caused them to genuinely fret about what was actually in the Treaty text. Martin reiterated Roche's statement that 70 percent of Irish people feel that EU membership is a good thing. ¶7. Predictably, Ireland's opposition party, Fine Gael, which supported the Government in advocating a 'Yes' vote on the treaty, lambasted the Government for not delivering the Lisbon Treaty message coherently and for not revealing the full story of the defeat. Fine Gael Foreign Affairs Spokesman Billy Timmons criticized the Government for not taking into account the impact of the Government's "domestic failures," such as the slumping economy, and the difficulties caused by the evidence of former Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Bertie Ahern at the Mahon Tribunal. Timmons alleged that such concerns were often raised with Fine Gael canvassers as reasons why voters voted 'No.' -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. While the Irish political parties may quibble over the results of the research, the fact remains that the Lisbon Treaty was soundly defeated on June 12 and Ireland is on the cusp of becoming the only EU Member State to reject it. The European Council has put the Irish Government on notice that it expects it to devise a way forward -- if not by the Council meeting in October, then certainly by the Council meeting in December. Martin's call today for the Irish "to work together to address the challenges facing Ireland in Europe in the wake of the referendum result," acknowledges that the Irish Government understands it has a tough job ahead. FOLEY