IRISH GOVERNMENT SEEKS TIME TO DEAL WITH REJECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000363 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI SUBJECT: IRISH GOVERNMENT SEEKS TIME TO DEAL WITH REJECTION OF LISBON TREATY REF: DUBLIN 356 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM Robert J Faucher; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). IRISH GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TIME TO DEAL WITH REJECTION OF LISBON TREATY -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) As the Irish Government seeks to fathom the reasons for the surprise defeat of the Lisbon Treaty referendum on June 12, the EU appears prepared to give Ireland some breathing space to assess the poll result, conduct domestic consultations, and negotiate with EU partners to find a way to ratify the Treaty. Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin and other EU Foreign Ministers are expressing confidence that a way forward can be found. Still, it remains to be seen how much time Prime Minister Cowen will need to resolve this issue domestically and how long the EU will be willing to wait, if necessary, before moving on without Ireland. End summary. -------------- What Went Wrong for the Yeas? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In the aftermath of the June 12 defeat of the Lisbon Treaty referendum, the overwhelming consensus of Irish political leaders and analysts is that the 'Yes' campaign (mainly the political parties) failed to adequately explain why the complex, hard to understand Treaty was good for the Irish people (reftel). Put on the defensive early by the well organized, well financed, and emotive 'No' campaign ) which set the agenda and framed the arguments in the debate ) the 'Yes' campaign got into gear only four weeks before the polling (weeks after the 'No' campaign hit the ground running) and spent much of its time trying to refute arguments made by the 'No' side ) even though some of the 'No' claims had little or no merit. Consequently, the 'Yes' campaign took on a decidedly negative, rather than upbeat, tone. Many voters were not persuaded away from the 'No' mantra, "If You Don't Know - Vote No." ¶3. (SBU) Some observers saw a measure of arrogance in the 'Yes' campaign, noting that many Irish voters felt their political leaders were talking down to them in saying that the voters did not need to understand the Treaty, they merely needed to trust their leaders. This rubbed many independently-minded Irish the wrong way. The Irish streak of independence (nationalism according to some) in a nation that was a colonial subject of Great Britain until 1922, encouraged many Irish voters to accept the 'No' declarations that a vote for the Treaty was a vote for relinquishing Irish freedom and sovereignty. The 'No' campaign found fertile ground for its claims that the Treaty would introduce abortion and euthanasia to Ireland, cause Irish youths to be conscripted into a European army, shift the power of taxation from Dublin to Brussels, result in Ireland losing its European Commissioner, harm the farmers, and the like. ¶4. (U) A European Commission survey of 2,000 voters immediately following the June 12 referendum (reported in the Irish Independent newspaper on June 17) found that nearly three-quarters of the people who voted 'No' believed that the Treaty could be easily renegotiated. It also confirmed that a majority of people who did not understand the Treaty voted 'No.' Other significant findings were that: young people voted 'No' by a two to one margin; a majority of women voted 'No;' and the huge influx of immigrants into Ireland (mostly from other EU countries) is producing unease among the indigenous Irish, which prompted some to vote 'No.' (Note: Since 2000, the percentage of the Irish population that is foreign-born has soared from nearly zero to somewhere between 10 and 12 percent. End note.) -------------- Libertas - A New Political Force? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) It is significant to note that there was a large rise in the number of 'No' votes from around a half million in the Nice referendums in 2002 to 860,000 in the Lisbon referendum. Supporters of Sinn Fein, the pro-life movement, and extreme left wing parties were joined by a new force in Irish politics - Libertas. Libertas is led by Declan Ganley, Chairman of Rivada Networks, a U.S. defense contractor specializing in military telecom systems. Notwithstanding question marks about its funding and motivation, Libertas brought business respectability, good private sector management, and a slick campaign to the 'No' side. More DUBLIN 00000363 002 OF 002 importantly, Libertas brought a war chest of 1.5 million euro ) more money than available to the main political parties who led the 'Yes' campaign. Most political analysts believe that the impact of Libertas tipped the balance in favor of the 'No' vote. (Comment: Libertas appears to have filled the vacuum among middle class, business-oriented, conservative voters created by the demise of the Progressive Democrats party, which was virtually non-existent during the referendum campaign. End comment.) -------------- The Way Forward? -------------- ¶6. (U) As Foreign Minister Micheal Martin arrived in Luxembourg ahead of the June 16-17 General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC),he stated that the next step should be a "comprehensive analysis" of the Irish vote, saying it was too early to offer solutions. France and Germany have already signaled they do not want to let the Treaty die. With 18 countries having already ratified the Treaty, pressure is on for all member states to declare their views. UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband called for calm deliberation. The EU's High Representative, Javier Solana, expressed confidence that the EU and Ireland would solve the problem. ¶7. (SBU) On June 16, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, in an interview with the Finish press, expressed what seems to be the prevailing view of the EU Foreign Ministers at the GAERC: that the EU will maintain solidarity among the 27 member states (recognizing that Ireland is committed to the EU); that the Irish vote will be respected; that there will be no quick fix to the problem; but that the ratification process will move ahead. ¶8. (C) Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) European Correspondent Pat Kelly, who accompanied Martin to the GAERC meeting in Luxembourg, told POLOFF on June 17 that Martin had been greeted cordially by the other 26 EU Foreign Ministers, who, Kelly said, expressed "a great deal of understanding" as well as an appreciation that time would be needed before a way forward could emerge. Kelly revealed that Martin left the meeting feeling "positive." ¶9. (C) Frank Smith, Deputy Director General, European Union Division, DFA, echoed Kelly's views, saying that Martin was pleased with the understanding and support he received from his fellow Foreign Ministers. Smith said Martin's address to the GAERC stressed that the Irish vote reflected the will of the people and had to be respected; and that Ireland needed time to effectively assess the poll result, conduct domestic consultations, and negotiate with EU partners. Martin expressed confidence, according to Smith, that a way forward would be found. Smith predicted that this approach would also be taken by Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Brian Cowen at the European Council meeting on June 19. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) It appears that the EU is prepared to allow Ireland some breathing space to chart a way forward. There will be no rush to prescribe solutions. For its part, the Irish Government will do everything possible to avoid the scenario of a "two-speed Europe," where the other 26 countries agree to proceed with a new Treaty that excludes Ireland. Still, it remains to be seen how much time Prime Minister Cowen will need to resolve this issue domestically and how long the EU will be willing to wait, if necessary, before moving on without Ireland. FOLEY