IRELAND WILL NOT VETO WTO DEAL DESPITE PROMISE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 000361 SIPDIS STATE FOR USTR USDA FOR FAS - OCRA LONDON FOR FAS/MCSHERRY E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2018 TAGS: EAGR ECON ETRD PREL PGOV EI SUBJECT: IRELAND WILL NOT VETO WTO DEAL DESPITE PROMISE TO FARMERS REF: A. DUBLIN 356 ¶B. DUBLIN 324 ¶C. DUBLIN 219 Classified By: PEO Chief Ted Pierce. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On June 3, Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said he was "prepared" to veto a WTO deal that is "unacceptable" to Ireland (Ref B). The Irish Farmers Association (IFA),upset with the EU's handling of the WTO negotiations (Ref C),had put pressure on Cowen to promise a veto. On the same day that Cowen announced his decision to veto, the IFA agreed to urge its members to vote 'Yes' in the June 12 Lisbon Treaty referendum. However, senior Irish government officials have made it clear to us that Cowen has no intention of vetoing a WTO deal and that his promise was simply a mechanism that allowed the IFA to support a 'Yes' vote. Given the defeat of the Lisbon referendum (Ref A),the question now is whether the IFA's support was too little, too late. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Aidan O'Driscoll, Assistant Secretary at the Department of Agriculture, told us that he and another government colleague wrote the brief press statement on the veto in close consultation with two senior IFA officials. Over an eight-hour period they agreed with the IFA on the following text: "The Taoiseach (Prime Minister) today assured the IFA that he was prepared to use the veto if a deal that is unacceptable to Ireland is put to a vote." O'Driscoll pointed out that this statement does not commit the government to a veto and that it does not make reference specifically to agriculture. Further, he said that the IFA leadership is "fully aware" that the possibility of a veto is remote but that they needed political cover in order to sell their membership on the virtues of voting 'Yes' in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. According to O'Driscoll, the IFA realizes it needs a 'Yes' vote on Lisbon as a way to ensure continued favorable treatment for Irish farmers in Brussels. ¶3. (C) We spoke with two other senior Irish officials who confirmed this position. Gerard Monks, lead trade negotiator at the Department of Enterprise, Trade, and Employment, said that Ireland would look for a "balanced" WTO deal, meaning that his government would look at the entire package and not just the agricultural aspects. He expected that, in the end, Ireland would not veto a deal, especially if it meant alienating its major trade partners. Kevin Cardiff of the Department of Finance (and an aide to Cowen when he was Finance Minister) doubts whether Ireland would actually use its veto. This would, "use up too much political capital," he said. ¶4. (C) Comment: The veto promise was an elegant way for each side to get what they needed. However, given the Irish electorate's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty on June 12, the question is whether the government waited too long to bag the farmers' support. A June 6 poll showing that 11 percent of the 'No' voters were voting against the Treaty in order to "help Irish farmers in the WTO talks" suggests that Cowen may have benefited from acting earlier. End Comment. FOLEY