IRELAND SOUNDLY REJECTS LISBON TREATY IN SHOCK RESULT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000356 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI SUBJECT: IRELAND SOUNDLY REJECTS LISBON TREATY IN SHOCK RESULT REF: DUBLIN 334 AND PREVIOUS -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) By a surprisingly large margin, Irish voters today rejected the EU Lisbon Treaty by 53.7 percent to 46.3 percent. The final results were announced late in the afternoon. The 'No' campaign won in 33 of 43 constituencies. No single factor has emerged as decisive in the 'Yes' defeat. However, the overriding early consensus is that the leaders of the nation dropped the ball. They were not able to adequately explain a complex, hard-to-understand document, counter snazzy opposition sound-bites, or overcome complacency among those inclined to support the Treaty but who stayed home. The challenge now for Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen - as he nervously awaits the EU reaction - is to provide a coherent explanation of the Irish rejection and begin to rebuild fences with the EU. Cowen's first steps in the post-Lisbon environment will be to provide such explanations of the disappointing vote and his thoughts on a way forward at the June 19-20 European Council meeting. End summary. -------------- The Poll Results -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Right from the earliest tallies the morning of the June 13 count of the Lisbon treaty referendum vote, the 'Yes' side was in trouble. POLOFFs who visited a counting station were told of ballot boxes containing few ballots and of decisive 'No' margins. As early as an hour into the counting, the 'No' forces were declaring victory. By noon, when POLOFF spoke with Government Chief Whip Pat Carey, Carry woefully said it was hard to see how the 'Yes' vote could win. ¶3. (U) The 'No' campaign won in 33 of the 43 constituencies across the nation, with significant majorities emerging from rural and urban working class areas. Waterford was the first constituency to announce official results, where the treaty was rejected by 54 percent to 46 percent. The news did not improve for the 'Yes' campaign. Kildare, Dublin South East, and Laois/Offaly (Prime Minister Brian Cowen's constituency) were among the few constituencies favoring the Treaty. -------------- Why? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Reasons abound why the 'Yes' campaign failed. In a poll published by the Irish Times on June 6, 30 percent of voters said they did not understand what the treaty was about. Other reasons cited for voting against the Treaty that seemed to have grabbed the attention of the voters were: a wish to keep Ireland's power and identity (24 percent),fears that Ireland's traditional neutrality might be jeopardized (22 percent),a fear that Irish farmers would suffer from ongoing WTO talks (11 percent),and safeguarding the low Irish corporate tax rate (5 percent). ¶5. (SBU) Political analysts told POLOFF that the reasons for the failure of the 'Yes' campaign - largely run by the political parties - was that it started too late (never overcoming the initial momentum of the 'No' campaign) and that the Government failed to explain the Treaty properly. Some say that the 'Yes' campaign seemed to be mostly on the defensive, rather than touting the merits of the Treaty to the electorate. There is no evidence the Government suffered from a backlash on domestic issues, as was feared before the resignation of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern last month. ¶6. (SBU) Not all the 'No' supporters are gloating. POLOFF spoke with a senior Sinn Fein officer, who mused that the victory could set Sinn Fein up as the Government's scapegoat every time something goes wrong that could be linked to relations with the EU. ¶7. (U) Early in the afternoon, Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheal Martin blamed a perceived lack of information for the failure of the 'Yes' vote to prevail. Martin, director of Fianna Fail's referendum campaign, said that people just didn't know enough about the Treaty. He said there was a sense that the treaty "just didn't register" and "lacked a clear tangible." He added there was a "general sense of giving away too much power." Later the same day, Minister of Justice Dermot Ahern stated, "It looks like this will be a 'no' vote. At the end of the day, for a myriad of reasons, the people have spoken." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The margin of the 'No' vote was surprising high given that most of the political parties, trade unions, employers' DUBLIN 00000356 002 OF 002 organizations, and farmers' associations endorsed it. However, no single factor has emerged as decisive in the 'Yes' defeat. The relatively high (for a referendum) voter turnout didn't help the 'Yes' side as predicted, highlighting the depth of 'No' support and revealing Ireland's political elite as out of touch with the electorate. (The political elites here have repeatedly touted a high voter turnout as all that was needed for a 'Yes' victory.) The overriding early consensus is that the leaders of the nation dropped the ball. Their effort was too little, too late; they failed. The challenge now for Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen - as he nervously awaits the EU reaction - is to provide a coherent explanation of the Irish rejection and begin to rebuild fences with the EU. His next major foray into the post-Lisbon environment will be when he faces his EU counterparts at the June 19-20 European Council meeting. Due to the high voter turnout, Cowen's options appear to be more limited than when the Irish electorate, in a relatively low voter turnout, rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001. FOLEY