THE "YEAS" MAKE BUMPY PROGRESS IN THE LISBON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000310 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL EI SUBJECT: THE "YEAS" MAKE BUMPY PROGRESS IN THE LISBON TREATY REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN REF: DUBLIN 282 Classified By: DCM Robert J. Faucher; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Political leaders and the political parties are working hard to ensure a 'Yes' vote in the June 12 Lisbon Treaty referendum and are making visible progress, though their efforts could be undermined by a decision by either SIPTU, one of Ireland's largest trade unions, or the farmers' powerful IFA union to recommend a 'No' vote. With two weeks to go, the 'Yes' supporters appear confident and well on track, but nowhere near ready to declare victory. End summary. -------------- In-Fighting Among the "Yeas?" -------------- ¶2. (U) At the beginning of the week, Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Brian Cowen challenged Fine Gael and Labour to intensify their campaigns for a 'Yes' vote. Cowen said he wanted to see the same level of support for the Treaty in rival parties who have "the same vocation to the European idea as (Fianna Fail)." Fine Gael reacted angrily to the comments, referring to a cowardly strategy of blaming the main Opposition party in the event of a referendum defeat. ¶3. (U) Cowen,s comments followed a poll on the Treaty by the Sunday Business Post (reported on May 25),which showed the 'Yes' vote at 41 percent, up three points, the 'No' vote at 33, up five points, and the "don't knows" down eight points at 26 percent. However, when broken down by party, the poll showed that a large majority of Fianna Fail supporters intend to vote 'Yes,' while Fine Gael voters are almost evenly divided between the 'Yes' and 'No' sides. The reason for the low level of support among Fine Gael voters is said to be that many of them see the referendum as an opportunity to embarrass the Government. Fine Gael has urged its supporters to hold their political firepower until next year's local and European elections. ¶4. (U) Cowen denied that his comments were aimed at Fine Gael and said what he had been doing was giving words of encouragement and mutual support to all the parties campaigning for a 'Yes' vote. Political commentators have come out strongly to say that it is in the interests of both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to tone down the inter-party rhetoric if they wish to achieve their mutual objective of passing the Lisbon Treaty. By the end of the week, the headline article in The Irish Times proclaimed that Fianna Fail and the opposition parties were uniting to push for a 'Yes' vote -- replete with a photo of Fianna Fail leader Prime Minister Brian Cowen cozily taking tea with Labour Party Leader Eamon Gilmore and a Fianna Fail Member of Parliament during campaigning at a suburban Dublin shopping center. -------------- Ireland's "Vital National Interest" -------------- ¶5. (U) On May 22, Cowen said a 'Yes' vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum was in Ireland's "vital national interest." In an address to the Forum on Europe in Dublin, Cowen said, &I believe in a European Union that believes in Irelands, future. I see the respect the EU shows to Ireland and other smaller countries and how this has been core to the Treaty.8 Countering allegations made by Treaty opponents, Cowen said taxation would remain subject to unanimity in the EU and that Ireland would continue to have a veto. He also said defense would remain a sovereign matter and that Ireland's neutrality would be &rock solid8 under the Treaty. Fine Gael and Labour leaders later echoed his views, while Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald described the Treaty as a very poor deal, saying Ireland would lose "very many sensitive vetoes" if the Lisbon Treaty was passed. -------------- Farmers and the WTO Doha Round -------------- ¶6. (U) The Government is coming under increasing pressure to use its veto in the WTO talks, if the WTO deal does not satisfactorily protect Irish interests in the agriculture sector. The country's leading farmers organization, the Irish Farmers Association (IFA),is still threatening to recommend that its members vote 'No' on the Treaty if it is not satisfied with the WTO talks and the position of European DUBLIN 00000310 002 OF 002 Commissioner for Trade Peter Mandelson. Cowen said publicly this week that he felt it was foolish for the IFA to link the Treaty referendum to the WTO negotiations. ¶7. (C) Meanwhile during several high-level meetings in recent days, top political leaders privately expressed confidence that the referendum will pass, though they hastened to add that they could not be seen publicly to be expressing such assurances because complacency is their greatest foe and powerful interests have yet to weigh in. Such views were expressed by Prime Minister Brian Cowen to Senator Patrick Leahy, and both Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and Minister for Defence Willie O'Dea to the Ambassador. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Political leaders and the political parties are working hard to ensure a 'Yes' vote and are making visible progress, though their efforts could be undermined by a decision by either SIPTU, one of Ireland's largest trade unions, or the farmers' powerful IFA to recommend 'No.' With two weeks to go, the 'Yes' supporters appear confident and well on track, but nowhere near ready to declare victory. FOLEY