QATAR'S AMIR TO ATTEND ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DOHA 000224 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2018 TAGS: PREL LE SY QA SUBJECT: QATAR'S AMIR TO ATTEND ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT IN DAMASCUS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael A. Ratney, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) In a March 16 meeting, MFA Assistant Minister for Follow-Up Affairs Mohammed Al-Rumaihi (#3 MFA official) told Charge that "for sure the Amir will go" to the Arab League Summit in Damascus. Al-Rumaihi observed that "no one" has clear insights into all the dynamics of internal Lebanese politics, which is why he believes a solution requires all Lebanese political players sitting at a table to resolve the current impasse on presidential elections. He said Saudi Arabia, as the sponsor of the Ta'if Accords, would need to be at the table, as would Syria, the Arab League, the United Nations and representatives of the UN Security Council P-5. ¶2. (C) Charge agreed that Lebanese politics are complex, but emphasized that a change of approach by Syria is essential to ending the impasse. Charge said Qatar could send a strong message to Syria along these lines if the Amir did not attend the Summit. Al-Rumaihi responded that the Amir would definitely participate, because he believes nothing will be resolved absent clear and direct communication with his counterpart, Bashar Al-Asad. It is important, in Qatar's view, to maintain lines of communication with all parties. Al-Rumaihi said there was already much (and sufficient) public pressure on the Syrians given the decision by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to send lower-level representatives to Damascus. Qatar believes there is a role for both pressure and engagement. Asked who will represent Saudi Arabia, Al-Rumaihi said it is doubtful the Saudis will send a representative at or above the ministerial level. ¶3. (C) Charge cautioned that the members of the Arab League risk enhancing Syria's self-image as a leader in the Arab world by not collectively standing up to Damascus over the unhelpful role it is playing in Lebanon. Al-Rumaihi said it is only Syria's perception that it is a leader of the Arab world; the reality is far different. What matters most, stressed Al-Rumaihi, is that no one in the Arab world has the ability to build the reconciliation of Lebanon on the ground. The Lebanese must do this themselves, with the help and encouragement of the Arab and international communities. ¶4. (C) Misreading the situation in Lebanon often makes matters worse, observed Al-Rumaihi. He cited the example of Israeli military operations in Lebanon. By targeting civilian and infrastructure not associated with Hizballah - which he said "lives for" playing a military role and acting as an "agent provocateur" - Israel caused all Lebanon to rally around Hizballah, thereby inflating Hizballah's political importance and role in selecting the next Lebanese president. Al-Rumaihi remarked that Israel is strong in tactical decision-making but not in strategic thinking. Broader strategic thinking in Lebanon, concluded Al-Rumaihi, is now required. RATNEY