QATAR CONSIDERS MAJOR CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000213 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN PREL INRB QA SUBJECT: QATAR CONSIDERS MAJOR CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY ¶1. (U) Summary: Reversing all previous official statements, Qatar's Prime Minister indicated March 12 that Qatar might change the peg of its currency from the dollar in an attempt to constrain spiraling inflation. However, he said the government would not make such a major policy change unilaterally and would opt to change Qatar,s monetary policy in concert with other Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Contradicting the head of government, Qatar's Deputy Central Bank Governor downplayed March 13 any depegging from the dollar or revaluation of Qatar's currency in a statement to the press. While it is still not clear if Qatar will revalue its currency in the near future, if it does so, the action would likely come in early April, coinciding with the start of a new fiscal year. What is certain is that Qatari officials are not speaking on the currency issue with one voice. End Summary. Key Officials Discuss Monetary Policy Change -------------- ¶2. (U) Ibrahim Al Ibrahim, economic advisor to the Amir, has remarked in the media in the past month that pegging Qatari riyal to only one currency, the U.S. dollar, has many disadvantages, especially if the U.S. adopts monetary policies that are in conflict with those of Qatar. In an address to businessmen and bankers, for example, this influential and respected advisor said countries belonging to the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC),which he described as heavyweights in the world of investment and trade, should not link their currency to any other country's currency. Al Ibrahim, however, justified maintaining the dollar peg for the time being as necessary to preparing for the launch of a common Gulf currency. In a separate interview in the Financial Times, Al Ibrahim said the official position is "We won't delink but that doesn't mean forever; it means for the foreseeable future." ¶3. (U) Subsequent recent remarks by the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani (HBJ) strengthened the probability of an imminent change, most likely in early April, following the closing of the books on the government's fiscal year on March 31. The Prime Minister said March 11 he believed the Qatari riyal is currently undervalued by around 30 percent and that revaluation is being considered, among other measures, to tackle inflation. However, Qatar's Prime Minister urged GCC states to bridge differences over a single currency, saying monetary union could avert possible unilateral revaluations. In contrast to the Prime Minister, Deputy Central Bank Governor Fahad bin Faisal Al Thani said March 12 that there was "no plan" to depeg the riyal from the dollar. Instead, he stated that the Bank plans to keep the peg at its current 3.64 riyals/dollar for "the time being." Measures to Tackle Consequences of Dollar Devaluation -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Revaluation of the Qatari currency or a complete severing of it from the dollar in favor of a basket of currencies would mark the third move by the government of Qatar to tackle monetary problems blamed on a devaluating dollar. In October 2007, Qatar announced that the country's sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, had cut its exposure to the dollar by more than half from 99 to 40 per cent. Earlier, the Qatar Central Bank increased its holdings of gold to 158.1 million Qatari riyals ($43.4 million) from 44.3 million riyals in order to diversify away from the weakening dollar. Sharp Break from Long-standing Policy -------------- ¶5. (U) Al Ibrahim,s remarks broke sharply with Qatar,s long-standing commitment to the peg. Until recently, the top-ranking economy-related officials, including the Prime Minister, Minister of Finance and Central Bank Governor, repeatedly reiterated that the country would maintain the peg and that this policy is in the interest of Qatar, because preserving the credibility of the regime helps the country attract investment. The Qatari riyal has been fixed at 3.64 to the U.S. dollar since June 1980. This de facto peg was formalized in 2001, replacing the formal peg to the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) rate, and providing a stable platform for the economy. The peg also minimized the role of monetary policy in managing short-term liquidity. According to Al Ibrahim, who heads a government body that charts economic development, rising inflation starting in 2004 fueled by rapid economic growth prompted a review of Qatar,s monetary policy. He regularly notes that prices in Qatar soared 157 percent between 2003 and 2007, and rents and prices of building materials prices have gone up more DOHA 00000213 002 OF 002 than 200 percent over a short period of time, forcing some resident families to leave the country for good. Another View... -------------- ¶6. (U) Some government and private economists have taken issue with the positive assessment on revaluation, arguing a revaluation at this time might not be in the best interest of Qatar's economy for the following reasons: - At a time when Qatar is competing for capital, a revaluation would make the country more expensive and consequently less appealing to foreign investors; - A revaluation would lead to higher export prices, and exports like petrochemicals would become less competitive, thereby hurting the country's efforts to diversify away from oil and gas; - A revaluation might lead to a series of revaluations; if the dollar reverses its plunge and begins to surge again, Qatar,s monetary authority would need to devaluate its currency, which would cause the currency regime to lose all credibility; - The policy change might not reduce inflation. Inflation in Qatar is mostly driven by the lack of affordable housing, which cannot be addressed by currency appreciation; - Finally, a revaluation would likely reduce the riyal value of Qatar,s hydrocarbons revenue, which accounts for more than 60% of GDP and roughly 85% of export earnings and 70% of government revenues. Currency appreciation would also result in less available local currency when converted from U.S. dollars. In addition, a revaluation would significantly reduce the value of Qatar,s foreign assets in U.S. dollar denominated investments. The last thing Qatar needs now, these critics argue, is a reduction in its income while the government is spending huge amounts of money on health, education and large infrastructure projects - and allocating more money to its sovereign wealth fund. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The recent public (and contradictory) comments by key officials lead us to believe the government is on the verge of deciding whether it will revaluate Qatar's currency against the dollar at the change of the fiscal year in April, which private and government experts believe would be both practical and timely. Fundamentally, we sense there has been a strategic shift in political calculations surrounding inflation, as the senior leadership now appears to view persistent inflation as an increasing threat to social harmony between the large and growing expatriate population and the increasingly small Qatari minority. Should U.S. policymakers wish to dissuade Qatar from the leadership's revaluation course, offering viable solutions to Qatar's current inflation problem will be key. Ultimately, it would probably take a phone call from Treasury Secretary Paulson to HBJ to cause the GOQ to take pause. Bio Note -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Besides serving as economic adviser to the Amir, Ibrahim Al Ibrahim is also vice-chairman of the board of directors of RasGas and a member of the boards of Qatar Petroleum, Qatargas, and Industries Qatar. He was recently appointed secretary general for development and planning and is also a member of a committee set up by the Amir to evaluate ways to tackle inflation. Prior to working in Qatar, Ibrahim was an associate business professor at the University of Hawaii, director of economic development at Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, and senior economist at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. He holds a PhD in business administration from New York University. RATNEY