GODJ CONCERNS OVER BANDITRY, INSECURITY IN NORTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000990 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018 TAGS: ASEC DJ PGOV PINS SUBJECT: GODJ CONCERNS OVER BANDITRY, INSECURITY IN NORTH REF: DJIBOUTI 949 Classified By: Amb. J. Swan for reasons 1.5 (b)(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: GODJ officials are concerned by recent incidents of banditry and other insecurity in ethnic Afar regions of northern Djibouti. They ascribe the incidents to disaffected unemployed youth and/or to immigrant criminals from Ethiopia. Tadjoura region traditional elders are reaching out to youths from their communities in an attempt to defuse tensions. Some GODJ contacts explain the recent incidents in part as a result of reduced police and military presence in the affected areas due to force requirements along the border with Eritrea. While CHOD General Fathi has hinted at a possible response by the security forces, most GODJ contacts appear acutely aware of the great political sensitivities to any such action in the Afar region, which was the scene of a protracted rebellion in the early 1990s. End summary. ¶2. (C) In brief visits to regional capitals Tadjoura and Obock on November 19 and 22, respectively, Ambassador and other Embassy staff learned of GODJ concern over an up-tick in banditry and other insecurity. Prefect Abdoulrazack Daoud (the regional governor) of Tadjoura reported an increase in acts of banditry, including along the main Tadjoura-Obock road. He laid primary responsibility for these incidents on unemployed youth in the area, and noted that two specific gangs and their local leaders had been identified. The Prefect stated that the GODJ is reluctant to use force against these gangs, to avoid inflaming their communities. Instead, the GODJ has reached out to them through traditional leaders. The Sultan of Tadjoura, Abdoulkader Houmed Mohamed, later confirmed to us that he had made initial contact with them. Neither the Prefect nor the Sultan could articulate any specific political grievances of the group, other than frustration over poor economic conditions. The Prefect assured us "this has nothing to do with politics," but registered concern that opposition groups in exile could try to exploit the situation. He mentioned that some of those involved in the incidents were Afars from Ethiopia, "immigrants who stayed." ¶3. (C) In a separate conversation, the Sub-Prefect of Tadjoura, who said he had been at post for more than 13 years, described an Oct. 12 incident in the town of Randa (Tadjoura region's second largest town). The Sub-Prefect said an armed band (NFI) had entered the town and demanded food and other supplies, then returned to the bush after obtaining these items. In response, Prime Minister Dileita Mohamed Dileita (the senior Afar in the GODJ) made a highly publicized trip to Tadjoura October 23 to urge the region's population not to condone or support acts that contributed to insecurity. As a sign of the importance accord to this mission, Dileita was accompanied by a number of other senior officials, including the Minister of Interior, Minister of Defense, and the President of the Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD) the former Afar rebel group the negotiated a peace agreement with the Somali-dominated government in 1994 after a four-year rebellion. ¶4. (C) In Obock, the Sub-Prefect (who said he was a former FRUD commander during the rebellion) played down the problem of insecurity. He ascribed incidents in the area to Ethiopian immigrants. They had a history of small-scale banditry, he said, and in some cases were involved in smuggling economic migrants to Yemen. The Sub-Prefect said the problem was long-standing but had become more evident as Djiboutian security forces were stretched by the need to continue to defend the border with Eritrea. ¶5. (C) Senior GODJ officials in the capital remain seized with the problem of insecurity. Prime Minister Dileita told us Nov. 24 (reftel) that the instigators were unemployed youth and Ethiopian criminals. He said that during his October 23 visit to the region, he had told the local citizens that they would be the ones to "pay" if planned developments such as road-work between Tadjoura and the remote town of Darra could not go forward due to acts of banditry. Therefore, the local population should have a vital interest in nipping this phenomenon in the bud. Separately, Armed Forces Chief of Staff, General Ahmed Houssein Fathi, told recent USG visitors that the GODJ was contemplating military operations in the area against Ethiopians responsible for animal rustling and other crimes, but provided no specifics. He indicated that pockets of insecurity would likely persist into the new year. ¶6. (C) Comment: The interest of PM Dileita and CHOD Fathi DJIBOUTI 00000990 002 OF 002 in northern security reveals the attention the GODJ is giving to this matter. In view of the significant political sensitivities to any military action by the government in the Afar north, we expect the GODJ to make every possible effort to address this problem without using force. Several of our interlocutors noted that the up-tick in insecurity is in part the result of Djiboutian troops being stretched to defend positions on the northern border, saying this underscored Djiboutian eagerness to find a peaceful end to its stand-off with Eritrea. SWAN