SOMALIA - PRESIDENT YUSUF DOES NOT OPPOSE BUT WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000989 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA-WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV SO DJ SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRESIDENT YUSUF DOES NOT OPPOSE BUT WILL NOT SUPPORT DJIBOUTI AGREEMENT REF: DJIBOUTI 945 Classified By: ERIC WONG, DCM. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Abdullahi Yusuf, President of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG),asserted that he would not use his influence to promote power-sharing arrangements reached November 25 between the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS),because he had been "barred" from the Djibouti talks by the UN SRSG and by the Government of Djibouti. Yusuf claimed that he had wanted to travel to Djibouti to help the process, but since the UN and GODJ had refused to allow him to participate, it was now unreasonable to expect him to support the results. Yusuf said the agreement to form a government of national unity was now in the hands of the existing Transitional Federal Parliament, and that he would neither oppose nor actively support the agreement. Yusuf objected to the size of the proposed expansion, noting that a 550-member Somali parliament would be bigger than India's. Yusuf asserted that the population of Puntland, where he had just spent five days, remained skeptical of the TFG-ARS agreement, as it did not reflect the views of all segments of Somalia society. Yusuf plans to depart Djibouti December 5 for Somalia. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ambassador and DCM met the evening of December 4 with visiting TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf, who was just concluding a meeting with Puntland region president Adde Muse. Ambassador underscored the importance of all Somali political actors supporting the Djibouti Process (ref A) and its efforts to decide on structures for a government of national unity within 30 days, as stipulated by the November 25 communique issued by TFG and ARS representatives of the High Level Committee. -------------- "BARRED" FROM DJIBOUTI TALKS -------------- ¶3. (C) President Yusuf said that when the latest round of TFG-ARS talks began in Djibouti, he had asked both UN SRSG for Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, and the Government of Djibouti, whether he could attend. Ould-Abdallah had reportedly said that "nothing would come out of this meeting," but that Yusuf's participation may be needed at future talks in January 2009. The GODJ reportedly failed to respond to Yusuf, as "they were avoiding me." Yusuf asserted that he thus no longer had any role in promoting the November 25 communique: "It's too late for me to do my job properly, because I have been barred." ¶4. (C) According to Yusuf, it was now up to the existing Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) to consider the proposed powersharing arrangement. "It is up to our parliament, not me, to discuss this document and issue a decision," he said; "It's beyond my authority." Urged to exercise his influence, if not his authority, to publicly express support for the Djibouti Process, Yusuf demurred, complaining "Now, after a fait accompli, my influence is at a minimum." Yusuf added that although he "would not oppose" anything, he would "need to keep quiet". -------------- 550-MEMBER PARLIAMENT "TOO MUCH" FOR SOMALIA -------------- ¶5. (C) Noting that he had just spent five days in Puntland, Yusuf said that Puntland considered the proposed 550-member parliament excessive, whose costs would be "beyond our imagination." Citing India, he noted that even wealthier countries with larger populations did not have parliaments as large. Those parties who had agreed to a 550-person parliament for Somalia had "complicated things," he said. "If half (that number) could not do anything for four years, I don't think double the number will change the situation in Somalia," Yusuf said. ¶6. (C) Yusuf asserted that even if the Transitional Federal Parliament accepted the November 25 agreement to form an expanded government of national unity, "there will be those who fight forever." Instability had plagued Somalia DJIBOUTI 00000989 002 OF 002 continuously for nearly four decades, he noted. Before 18 years of conflict, there had been 21 years of military dictatorship. "Chaos will continue," he said, so long as Somalis "act out of self-interest." An aide to Yusuf underscored the need for inclusion in political talks, noting that the TFG itself resulted from two years of comprehensive talks in Nairobi; if the charter for a new Somali government was to be renegotiated, then all stakeholders must be addressed, "not just a small minority." ¶7. (C) COMMENT. TFG President Yusuf's refusal to publicly endorse the powersharing arrangements proposed by the November 25 communique highlight his deep divisions with TFG PM Hassan Hussein Nur Adde, who attended the most recent round of Djibouti Process talks. According to senior Djiboutian officials, Djiboutian President Guelleh was prepared to welcome Yusuf to Djibouti in late November, but would have sought to prevent Yusuf from interfering in the TFG-ARS talks, by keeping him isolated from other political interlocutors. END COMMENT. SWAN