DJIBOUTI FONMIN ON SOMALIA, ERITREA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000895

SIPDIS

NAIROBI FOR SOMALIA UNIT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2018
TAGS: DJ ER MOPS PREL PTER SO
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI FONMIN ON SOMALIA, ERITREA

REF: DJIBOUTI 891

Classified By: Amb. James Swan for reasons 1.5 (b)(d).


1. (C) Summary: According to Foreign Minister Youssouf,
the GODJ favors a two-track approach on Somalia: (A) bolster
the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) through regional
political intervention to avert TFG collapse and through
funding from international partners for TFG security forces,
and (B) marginalize extremists by removing Hassan Dahir Aweys
from Asmara and "neutralizing" Hassan al-Turki. Youssouf
said Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum is seeking to organize
an IGAD ministerial to intervene with the TFG. Regarding
Djibouti's border dispute with Eritrea, Youssouf said the
GODJ continues to seek a diplomatic solution and has no
interest in pursuing a military conflict with Eritrea, or
involving other regional partners in such a conflict. End
summary.

AVERT TFG COLLAPSE, PAY TFG TROOPS


2. (C) Ambassador met November 16 with Djiboutian Foreign
Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf for an initial courtesy call
and to discuss regional developments. Youssouf kept the
conversation focused on Somalia. He noted that UN SRSG
Amadou Ould-Abdallah plans to proceed with the next round of
talks between the TFG and the Alliance for the Reliberation
of Somalia (ARS) in Djibouti on November 22. But meanwhile
the TFG is in danger of collapse. Youssouf explained that
there is an urgent need for political intervention to shore
up the TFG. He noted that Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum
had called him the previous night to discuss plans to
organize an IGAD ministerial "in the coming days" to address
the new political crisis following the failure of President
Yusuf and Prime Minister Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde" to agree
on a new cabinet. Youssouf said this IGAD ministerial would
likely revisit the option of pressing for removal of TFG
President Yusuf from office -- an option intially considered
but then rejected at the October 29 IGAD summit in Nairobi.


3. (C) Youssouf said the second key to salvaging the TFG is
to pay its security forces. He conveyed a specific appeal
from Djiboutian President Ismael Omar Guelleh that the USG
support the planned 10,000-person TFG-led force. The
personnel have already been trained and are prepared to
report to work and to fight as long as their salaries are
guaranteed. Youssouf said the GODJ had also conveyed this
request to the League of Arab States, via its SecGen Amr
Moussa. Youssouf later added that the GODJ sought not only
direct USG financial aid, but also USG diplomatic support in
encouraging others to contribute to the TFG force.

MOVE AWEYS FROM ASMARA, "NEUTRALIZE" AL-TURKI


4. (C) To futher isolate extremist elements in Somalia,
Youssouf said the "ideologues" behind al-Shabaab must be
removed. Hassan Dahir Aweys is considering leaving Asmara,
Youssouf reported. Aweys wants to make the "Hajj" to Mecca,
but has still not made a firm decision to go. The GODJ has
already contacted Saudi authorities to urge that Aweys be
kept in Saudi Arabia should he make the trip. Youssouf
believed the departure of Aweys from Asmara and separation
from his contacts there would effectively remove him as a
threat.


5. (C) The other "ideologue" -- Hassan al-Turki -- poses a
more serious threat and would not withdraw quietly from the
scene, Youssouf said. Al-Turki will have to be "neutralized
one way or another" -- and Youssouf made clear this meant
captured or killed -- in order to end the threat he poses.

DIPLOMACY TO RESOLVE BORDER DISPUTE WITH ERITREA


6. (C) Youssouf said the GODJ's efforts to resolve its border
dispute with Eritrea are "focused on the diplomatic option."
He recounted the long list of mediators agreed by Djibouti
but rejected by Eritrea: African Union, Arab League,
Intergovernmental Authority on Development, France, Qatar,
and the United Nations. Briefly mentioning his November 4-5
visit to Iran and press reports that he had invited Iranian
mediation, he laughed that Djibouti was "open to assistance
from anyone" but did not elaborate. He dismissed the idea of
any Djiboutian military action, saying the GODJ had withdrawn

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its forces from the border area precisely to avoid Eritrean
provocation that could lead to further fighting. Djibouti
has no interest in pursuing a conflict, or in involving its
regional partners in conflict with Eritrea, he averred.


7. (C) COMMENT: Although he is an ethnic Afar and not as
directly involved as the dominant Somali group, Youssouf's
remarks show the intense Djiboutian focus on developments in
Somalia. Signs of this high-level interest include President
Guelleh's message to the USG on funding the Somali security
forces, Youssouf's discussions with Seyoum on an IGAD summit,
and GODJ consultations with the Saudis on the future of
Aweys. The GODJ is clearly worried that further unravelling
of the TFG would undermine the Djibouti process in which the
GODJ is heavily invested. END COMMENT.
SWAN