DJIBOUTI ON FY09 MCA SCORES: THE BALL'S IN OUR COURT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000885 DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND AF/EPS LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM SOCI SENV KCOR KMCA KWMN DJ SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI ON FY09 MCA SCORES: THE BALL'S IN OUR COURT REF: A. STATE 111916 ¶B. DJIBOUTI 684 DJIBOUTI 00000885 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. In delivering advance copies of Djibouti's FY2009 Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) Scorecard to GODJ officials (per reftel),Post welcomed Djibouti's Presidential-level commitment to improving indicator performance. In light of Djibouti's slight backsliding in FY2009 scores, Post also urged the GODJ to sustain its efforts to bolster performance--both through improved policy and programs, and through better recordkeeping and communication with indicator institutions. Although GODJ officials were disappointed with Djibouti's lackluster scorecard, including setbacks in three previously positive indicator areas (Land Rights and Access, Primary Education Expenditures, and Fiscal Policy),all interlocutors agreed that it was now Djibouti's responsibility to address remaining weaknesses. In particular, while several GODJ officials complained that indicator institutions were using incorrect or outdated statistics, all agreed that it was the GODJ's challenge to provide timely information. END SUMMARY. -------------- PRESIDENCY: WILL MAINTAIN ENGAGEMENT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to multiple sources, President Guelleh has taken an active personal interest in improving Djibouti's MCA scores. OnQ November 5, PolOff delivered an advance copy of Djibouti's scorecard to Mr. Meraneh Daher, Advisor to the Presidency on International ReQtions. Daher confirmed that President Guelleh remained "100% behind MCA efforts," and reported that an informal inter-ministerial committee on MCA, comprising Secretaries-General from all relevant Ministries, had been established under the aegis of the Presidency and was conferring regularly. ¶3. (SBU) Daher was "disappointed" with Djibouti's FY2009 scores, and predicted that senior GODJ principals would also be disappointed. However, Daher said that he hoped for improvements in FY2010, especially since U.S. law firm Foley Hoag LLC--under contract to advise the GODJ on improving MCA scores--had reportedly advised that there could be a significant time lag between when the GODJ provided new information to indicator institutions, and when any subsequent improvements showed up in the scores. Daher confirmed that the GODJ continued to work with Foley Hoag, and said that the firm might make another field visit to Djibouti. ¶4. (SBU) Daher was especially dismayed at Djibouti's lack of progress in the "Investing in People" categories, citing the GODJ's recent heavy emphasis on health, education, and poverty reduction programs. Daher said he feared that some of Djibouti's poor scores might be due to gaps in data and other statistical problems. In particular, he cited widespread use by indicator institutions of inaccurate and likely too-high population estimates. (NOTE. Djibouti's last census data derive from a 1983 study, never officially published. A long awaited new census is currently underway, and preliminary results are anticipated in early 2009. END NOTE.) Daher also acknowledged that Djibouti had probably not provided updated statistics to UNESCO promptly, and said that the GODJ did not have a strong tradition of close collaboration with UNESCO, which has a very small in-country presence. Daher suggested that the GODJ might make an extra effort to invite the UNESCO Representative resident in Addis Ababa, or other UNESCO officials, to visit Djibouti, and perhaps to provide some training on procedures for submitting data to UNESCO. ¶5. (SBU) Daher reported that as part of ongoing outreach to indicator institutions, the GODJ had invited a Freedom House representative to visit Djibouti. He said that the November 17-19 visit would include governmental and civil society meetings, and was primarily aimed at gauging the feasibility of holding a Freedom House "Dialogue on Freedom" in Djibouti. Daher said that the GODJ had already offered to fund the $25,000 cost of this program, but that Freedom House's internal rules prevented acceptance of government financing. (NOTE. Freedom House representatives have contacted Post, and are scheduled to meet with EmbOffs during their Djibouti visit. END NOTE.) -------------- FINANCE AND EDUCATION: GODJ MUST COMMUNICATE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) PolOff delivered a copy of the advance scorecard November 3 to Ministry of Finance MCA Coordinator Houssein Ahmed Youssouf. Youssouf echoed Daher's disappointment about the scores. He also agreed that that Djibouti could do better in compiling accurate and DJIBOUTI 00000885 002.2 OF 002 timely data, and in communicating those data to international organizations such as UNESCO. At the same time, he emphasized that the responsibility for outdated or insufficient data belonged solely to the "government of Djibouti, and not to the MCC or international organizations." He volunteered, for example, that the Directorate of Budget could improve its procedures and transparency, and that the GODJ should invite UNESCO officials for a working visit. ¶7. (U) Ministry of Education Secretary-General Fathi Ahmed Chamsan was likewise disappointed with the advance copy of the scorecard, delivered November 6. Chamsan was especially unhappy at Djibouti's slide backwards in "Primary Education Expenditures," and at the lack of progress in "Girls' Primary Education Completion." He agreed that Djibouti needed to improve communication with UNESCO and with the UN in general. His team especially complained that many UN agencies were using an inaccurate baseline population estimate, based on projections that did not account for recent reductions in population growth rates. Chamsan said he worried that this "inflated" baseline "denominator" was masking Djibouti's progress in areas such as "Girls' Primary Education Completion." Nevertheless, Chamsan said it was now up to the GODJ to improve performance and communication, saying "the ball is in our court." ¶8. (U) COMMENT. While Djibouti's FY2009 scores are somewhat disheartening, the GODJ remains committed, at the highest levels, to making progress in MCA indicator areas. That key GODJ officials consistently took responsibility for addressing deficits is also encouraging. In ongoing conversations with host country interlocutors, Post will continue to urge the GODJ to maintain MCA momentum--through better record-keeping and communication, and through concrete programs and policy reform. END COMMENT. SWAN