SOMALIA - ARS LEADERS EXPRESS READINESS TO WORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000839

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S FRAZER AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - ARS LEADERS EXPRESS READINESS TO WORK
WITH TFG

Classified By: Somalia Unit PolCounselor Bob Patterson. Reasons: 1.4
(b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. In advance of the October 26 signing of a
cessation of hostilities agreement (septel),Alliance for the
Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) Chairman Sheikh Sharif and his
Deputy Sharif Hassan discussed with Special Envoy for Somalia
John Yates their relations with the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) and their expectations of the October 27-29
Intergovernmental Authority on Development Summit (IGAD) on
Somalia. Both agreed that the ARS leadership was ready to
form a unity government and sign the cessation of hostilities
agreement, and seemed to agree that the progress on the
ground had to take place quickly if the Djibouti Process was
to remain credible. They alleged that there was growing
grassroots dissatisfaction in Somalia with those, like
al-Shabaab, who were attempting to obstruct the Djibouti
Process, and they hoped that the IGAD Summit, which they
would attend at the invitation of the UN SRSG, would advance
the cause of reconciliation. The ARS's tentative commitment
to cessation of armed confrontation and the formation of a
unity government was seconded by ARS and TFG members of the
High-Level Political Committee in a meeting later the same
day. END SUMMARY.

ARS Supports Cessation of Armed Confrontation,
Agrees Reconciliation Must Advance
--------------


2. (C) In advance of the October 26 signing of a cessation of
armed confrontation agreement with the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) (septel),Special Envoy for Somalia
Ambassador John Yates met with Alliance for the Re-liberation
of Somalia Chairman Sheikh Sharif and his Deputy Sharif
Hassan on the margins of the October 25-26 peace talks in
Djibouti. Ambassador Yates opened the meeting by
underscoring to the "two Sharifs" the urgent need for forward
momentum in the reconciliation process. "Somalis on the
ground are beginning to doubt if something is happening with
the process, and where it is going," he said.


3. (C) Sheikh Sharif insisted to Ambassador Yates that
Somalis remained optimistic about the reconciliation process,
and that the time for "peace, not confrontation" had indeed
come. More worrisome than the process, he said, was the
humanitarian situation in Somalia, the growing number of IDPs
around Mogadishu, and the growing number of attacks on and
threats to humanitarian workers. Sheikh Sharif shared
Ambassador Yates's sense of urgency, noting that "we need to
move forward, or the spoilers will act." The ARS was firmly
committed to the reconciliation process, he said, and largely
re-united, as there were "not more than ten ARS dissenters in
Asmara."


4. (C) As evidence of growing grassroots Somali impatience
with those not committed to the Djibouti Process, Sharif
Hassan cited calls from Somalis in Kismayo dissatisfied with
the Juba Administration and recent tactical retreats by
al-Shabaab, among them opening the Mogadishu airport. After
the September 17-19 Djibouti talks, the ARS leaders spoke (in
secret) with Government of Ethiopia representatives about the
ENDF's withdrawal from Somalia and the Djibouti Process. The
willingness to reach out to the GOE demonstrated the ARS's
commitment, he said. (Later in the conversation, Sheikh
Sharif termed the GOE's concerns about al-Shabaab groundless,
as there was increasing grassroots opposition to them.) What
was needed, he said, was USG help with near-term security
concerns, including training for security forces.

Worries About IGAD
--------------


5. (C) Sheikh Sharif worried about the October 27-29 Nairobi
IGAD Summit on Somalia. "If there are two processes," he
said, "it will be very hard for us. We need only one
process." S/E Yates assured him that the U.S. agreed and was
working to ensure that the IGAD Summit would further the
Djibouti Process. S/E Yates stated that as an IGAD member
state, Somalia must help set the agenda to make sure that it
does not undermine the progress already made. The Special
Envoy thanked Sheikh Sharif for condemning the kidnapping and
killing of aid workers, and urged that the ARS publicly voice
its condemnation. He again urged the ARS to sign a statement
on the cessation of armed confrontation during this round of
talks since the September session ended without agreement.
"Deliverables" will be needed if the IGAD Summit is to
support the Djibouti Process, he said, and a cease-fire

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agreement would be one of those. Such an agreement would
also quell increasing Ethiopian and Ugandan frustration with
the TFG's lack of progress.


6. (C) The ARS leaders told S/E Yates that they would travel
to Nairobi for the IGAD Summit at the invitation of SRSG
Ould-Abdallah, as they had not received an invitation from
IGAD Chair Ethiopia. (Note: In inviting the ARS, the SRSG
told us that he was interpreting comments made during a
recent BBC interview by GOE Prime Minister Meles as a tacit
invitation. The SRSG said he would contact Ethiopia to
encourage them to issue a formal invitation and encouraged us
to do the same with both Ethiopia and Kenya.)

Possible Composition of Unity Government
--------------


7. (C) In response to S/E Yates's question about the make-up
of a possible TFG - ARS government, Sharif Hassan said he had
already previewed scenarios with the TFG. It was "hard to
sit with one's enemies, but we must sit with them," he said.
He suggested that the number of parliamentarians could be
increased to allow the TFG and ARS to be equally represented,
with a new government (including President, Prime Minister,
Speaker, and cabinet) then to be elected by the enlarged
parliament. S/E Yates noted that the TFG's mandate would
expire in fall 2009, and cautioned against changes that would
distract the new, coalition government from preparing the
framework for elections, and establishing the presence of a
unity government on the ground. He also cautioned against
any steps that might give the international community the
impression that the new unity government was abandoning the
Transitional Federal Charter or the Djibouti Process.
Concrete steps to advance that process would, on the other
hand, win tremendous support. He again urged that the ARS
sign the long-postponed cessation of hostilities agreement.
Sharif Hassan said that the ARS leadership wanted to sign,
but it had to convince its supporters that "we should sit
down with the enemy." He also wondered what concessions the
TFG would offer the ARS in exchange for its willingness to
sign.

High-Level Committee Seeks Political Solution
--------------


8. (C) Representatives to a meeting of the joint TFG - ARS
High-Level Political Committee late on the afternoon of
October 25 demonstrated the same cautious willingness to move
forward with a unity government evinced by the "two Sharifs."
The delegates decisively rejected a proposal by the UN
Political Office on Somalia that they focus on reconstruction
and development. On the table, they said, had to be a
political solution to the problems facing Somalia, with
reconstruction and development to be considered only when
"peace has been established in Somalia."


9. (C) The assembled delegates, like the ARS chairs,
condemned the killing and threats against humanitarian aid
workers, and many times noted the urgency of moving the
process forward. They urged that the discussions not bog
down over power-sharing, and that the sides first devote
themselves to solving the pressing problems they now faced.
"The key issue," Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalam Adan
summed up, "is not power-sharing but shared responsibility."

Comment
--------------


10. (C) As septel reports, October 25-26 talks continuing the
UN-chaired Djibouti Process produced an agreement to form a
unity government and modalities to implement the cessation of
armed confrontation. Comments by ARS representatives, both
in the meeting with S/E Yates, in the corridors, and at the
joint committee meetings suggest, however, that the formation
of a unity government will be a challenge. While they have
indicated the importance of ending violence, many have
already started jockeying for advantage and can easily be
distracted by power-sharing calculations. Still, both
Sharifs, and members of the High-Level Committee demonstrated
over the weekend an optimism and serious of purpose that had
not been in evidence at the previous meeting on September
17-19.
WONG