DJIBOUTI: FONMIN APPRECIATIVE

S E C R E T DJIBOUTI 000518

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/EX
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2013
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS PHSA ER AU DJ
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI: FONMIN APPRECIATIVE

Classified By: CHARGEE D'AFFAIRES A.I. KATHLEEN LIST FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) Chargee attended the Russian National Day celebration
June 11 and spoke with numerous diplomats, all of whom seemed
unaware that anything more serious than two dead in a
Djiboutian skirmish with the Eritrean military at the border
had occurred.


2. (C) Upon return to the Embassy, CDA called Djiboutian
Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf (21:45 local time) and
asked if Djibouti was preparing a declaration of war, as has
been rumored in the city. He said Djibouti did not declare
war on Eritrea; Eritrea invaded Djibouti and Djibouti was
defending itself. He observed that the mismatch in military
strength was significant, with the Djiboutian military
numbering 3000 while the Eritrean numbered over 100,000 in
total and was throwing massive numbers of men into the fight
at the border. He said fighting had continued almost
constantly since the previous evening, with a slight lull in
the afternoon of June 11. He stressed the need for the
international community to intervene immediately to stop the
Eritrean "militias" and bring the Eritrean government to the
negotiating table so it could explain exactly what the
problem is that Eritrea has with Djibouti that would occasion
such violence.


3. (C) The minister said he had a meeting scheduled with the
Arab League June 12 in the morning and a 2 p.m. meeting with
the Peace and Security Council of the African Union. He is
in constant contact with his UN Ambassador. CDA told him
about the USG statement of support for the Djiboutian
position and calling for the two countries to sit down at the
negotiating table. The Minister seemed most relieved to hear
this, as he had not seen the statement. (Post sent a hard
copy to the Foreign Ministry on June 12.)


4. (C) He then mentioned that Deputy Chief of Defense MG
Zakaria Cheikh Ibrahim (the CHOD, MG Fathi A. Houssein, is
reportedly at the Presidential Palace) had overflown the
battlefield at the border inside Djibouti proper June 11 and
that many Eritrean soldiers were dead on Djiboutian soil.
The RSO's office reports that the remaining 25% of the
Djiboutian military left Djibouti city the morning of June
11, meaning there are no or few Djiboutian military in the
capital city. An unknown number of police officers are
following to the front. The military is calling up all who
retired from the military in the last four years and
suggested any male over 18 should be prepared to protect his
country. The Minister insisted again that Djibouti was
defending its territory, not attacking another state.


5. (C) The Minister expressed his appreciation to the United
States and encouraged us to "provoke" a prompt end to the
fighting and a move to the negotiating table. Djibouti is
prepared to work directly with the Eritreans or engage a
third party mediator.


6. (S) COMMENT: The fighting has already provoked an
increased flow of malnourished Djiboutian rural
nomads/dwellers, especially from the drought-plagued
northeast Afar-speaking area, into the capital city. This
combines with the diminution of remittances to rural dwellers
from their urban family members, due to the rise in gas and
food prices and diminished disposable income. The result is
a capital with an abundance of nomads and new faces,
presenting a possible opportunity for destabilizing
individuals to move freely and opportunistically throughout
the city. Post does not believe, however, that there is an
immediate or adverse impact to daily life in the capital.
Security, by all accounts, remains intact. Even though
reports confirm an increased presence of police and
gendarmerie support on the border, there has been no visible
decrease in security within the city. Post is closely
monitoring any changes that may affect Mission operations.
END COMMENT.
LIST