DJIBOUTI FORMIN: "LONG ROAD" FOR TFG-ARS AGREEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 000514

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PBTS KPAO DJ ER SO
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI FORMIN: "LONG ROAD" FOR TFG-ARS AGREEMENT

REF: A. NAIROBI 1421

B. DJIBOUTI 513

Classified By: PolOff Rebecca K. Hunter for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a June 10 courtesy call with CDA, Minister
of Foreign Affairs Mahamoud Ali Youssouf said he was pleased
that Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the
Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) had reached
an agreement at the close of talks in Djibouti on June 9, but
cautioned that this achievement was the first step in a "very
long process." With the breakout of hostilities on the
Djibouti-Eritrea border late on June 10 (septels),Djiboutian
optimism about the TFG-ARS agreement has been quickly
overshadowed by immediate domestic security concerns, and
speculation that Djibouti's helpfulness in hosting the talks
helped push an already tense border situation to the tipping
point. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The morning after ARS and TFG delegations initialed an
agreement at the end of ten days of talks in Djibouti (ref
A),Djiboutian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahamoud Ali
Youssouf told CDA and PolOff that while he was glad there was
an agreement, he understood that this was the "beginning of a
long road." He expressed frustration at the long process,
saying that too many Somalis put "personal ambitions and clan
interests" first, and said that the GODJ had joined with the
UN to convince the delegates to concentrate instead on the
real problem of rescuing the Somali people from the current
"tragic situation."


3. (C) Youssouf emphasized that USG support--especially at
the level of the UN Security Council--would be vital to the
successful continuation of the peace process. Without strong
USG support at the Security Council, he said, it would be
"very difficult" to provide an international stabilization
force strong enough to allow Ethiopian troops to withdraw.
Youssouf said he worried that France believed that Darfur was
a higher priority than Somalia, calling the French position
"not very helpful." Youssouf said that he thought it was
crucial that African troops staff any international force.


4. (C) Asked about the Arab League's expressed interest in
helping to catalyze economic development in Somalia, Youssouf
said that President Guelleh shared the "same vision;" namely,
to provide "parallel action of development" that would
eventually be the key to peace and prosperity. However,
Youssouf cautioned that while Arab countries have the funds
and the desire to help, the Arab League was likely to move in
a "slow motion process." (NOTE: Youssouf previously served as
Djibouti's Ambassador to Egypt and Representative to the Arab
League. END NOTE.)


5. (C) COMMENT: While Djibouti is proud that an agreement
came out of the talks they played host to, they know from
long experience not to expect immediate results. After
featuring triumphant coverage of the agreement in its June 10
edition, Djibouti's state-run daily newspaper closed its June
11 front page by pointedly drawing a link between the
announcement of the TFG-ARS agreement and the breakout of
hostilities on the Djibouti-Eritrea border the next day. END
COMMENT.

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