DJIBOUTI FM DISCUSSES SOMALIA, ERITREA-ETHIOPIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000377 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA-WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF ECON DJ SO ER ET SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI FM DISCUSSES SOMALIA, ERITREA-ETHIOPIA BORDER DISPUTE Classified By: PolOff Rebecca K. Hunter for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In an April 16 meeting, AF/E Director James Knight and GODJ Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahmoud Ali Youssouf reaffirmed the importance of a strong U.S.-Djibouti partnership, and discussed Djibouti's part in several regional issues, including the current situation in Somalia, a related recent refugee influx into Djibouti, and perspectives on the ongoing Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute. Youssouf emphasized the great toll regional tensions were taking on Djibouti's economy, and Djibouti's correspondingly great interest in helping to facilitate peaceful resolutions. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) AF/E Director Knight met with Mahmoud Ali Youssouf on April 16, accompanied by Charge d'affaires, a.i. and PolOff (notetaker). -------------- SOMALIA: "THINGS ARE STARTING TO MOVE" -------------- ¶3. (C) Knight and Youssouf discussed the recent Djibouti visit of Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Prime Minister Nur "Adde" Hassan Hussein, followed closely by a delegation from the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS),led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. Youssouf agreed that the U.N. Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia SIPDIS Ahmedou Ould Abdallah was responsible for much of the new momentum in Somalia. Youssouf said that Abdallah had agreed that Djibouti--with its history of taking a "quite neutral and moderate position"--was an "ideal spot" for future talks between the parties. ¶4. (C) Youssouf said the planned next step was to bring seven "technicians" from each group to Djibouti in the first week of May for further informal talks. The following week would then be dedicated to discussions among an expanded group of twenty from each party, possibly with the involvement of the international community. Then, Youssouf said, the next phase would be to lobby Arab countries--in particular Saudi Arabia and Qatar--and the Arab League to help finance the next steps in the reconciliation process. Youssouf said that he had already discussed this issue with Saudi Foreign Minister Saudal Faisal, and understood that Abdallah had also approached him. Youssouf said that while he understood that "Somalia needs more than one meeting," Djibouti stood ready to use its good offices to start a dialogue. The aim was to reach agreement with the ARS to end the Ethiopian military presence in Somalia, effect a ceasefire in Mogadishu, and address powersharing issues. -------------- REFUGEE INFLUX: NEED FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION -------------- ¶5. (C) Youssouf said that while degradation of the security situation in Somalia had long created refugee flows toward Djibouti, the recent upswing in the use of small boats by refugees trying to reach Yemen was a relatively new phenomenon. Youssouf pointed to the lack of good statistics on the numbers of people leaving Somalia, and on how many die en route to Yemen. Youssouf said that the GODJ was working with the TFG to address some of the refugee issues, and had seen "tangible results" from collaboration with Ethiopia to increase border police patrols. However, he stressed the need for a comprehensive regional strategy, and for strong partnerships with the U.S. and France, especially in the area of information-sharing on the traffic of small boats in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el Mandeb Strait. -------------- ERITREA-ETHIOPIA BORDER ISSUE -------------- ¶6. (C) On the Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute, Youssouf said that "neither country can afford a new war," noting Eritrea's dire economic situation and Ethiopia's military operations in Somalia and the Ogaden, as well as a robust domestic political opposition. While Youssouf said that he had noticed that tensions had eased slightly since late 2007 (when he said some 13 Ethiopian divisions and 75,000 Eritrean troops faced each other along the border),he also emphasized the need for greater "diplomatic effort and pressure" by the P-5 to reach a breakthrough. Youssouf also said that the DJIBOUTI 00000377 002 OF 002 GODJ had, on April 15, protested Eritrean military presence at Doumeira, on the Djibouti-Eritrea border. He said that the Eritrean military had set up several tents "well into" Djiboutian territory, as they had previously in 1994. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Djibouti has long taken a productive, neutral stance on neighboring conflicts, and it has every reason to continue doing so. As Youssouf outlined, insecurity in the neighborhood leads to higher insurance payments for shippers and greater risks for potential investors, with a predictable dampening impact on Djibouti's largely port-driven, foreign investment-dependent economy. END COMMENT. ¶8. (U) This cable was cleared by AF/E Director Knight. WONG