DJIBOUTI FM DISCUSSES SOMALIA, ERITREA-ETHIOPIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000377

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA-WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF ECON DJ SO ER ET
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI FM DISCUSSES SOMALIA, ERITREA-ETHIOPIA
BORDER DISPUTE

Classified By: PolOff Rebecca K. Hunter for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. In an April 16 meeting, AF/E Director James
Knight and GODJ Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahmoud Ali
Youssouf reaffirmed the importance of a strong U.S.-Djibouti
partnership, and discussed Djibouti's part in several
regional issues, including the current situation in Somalia,
a related recent refugee influx into Djibouti, and
perspectives on the ongoing Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute.
Youssouf emphasized the great toll regional tensions were
taking on Djibouti's economy, and Djibouti's correspondingly
great interest in helping to facilitate peaceful resolutions.
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) AF/E Director Knight met with Mahmoud Ali Youssouf on
April 16, accompanied by Charge d'affaires, a.i. and PolOff
(notetaker).

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SOMALIA: "THINGS ARE STARTING TO MOVE"
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3. (C) Knight and Youssouf discussed the recent Djibouti
visit of Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Prime Minister
Nur "Adde" Hassan Hussein, followed closely by a delegation
from the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS),led
by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. Youssouf agreed that the U.N.
Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia

SIPDIS
Ahmedou Ould Abdallah was responsible for much of the new
momentum in Somalia. Youssouf said that Abdallah had agreed
that Djibouti--with its history of taking a "quite neutral
and moderate position"--was an "ideal spot" for future talks
between the parties.


4. (C) Youssouf said the planned next step was to bring seven
"technicians" from each group to Djibouti in the first week
of May for further informal talks. The following week would
then be dedicated to discussions among an expanded group of
twenty from each party, possibly with the involvement of the
international community. Then, Youssouf said, the next phase
would be to lobby Arab countries--in particular Saudi Arabia
and Qatar--and the Arab League to help finance the next steps
in the reconciliation process. Youssouf said that he had
already discussed this issue with Saudi Foreign Minister
Saudal Faisal, and understood that Abdallah had also
approached him. Youssouf said that while he understood that
"Somalia needs more than one meeting," Djibouti stood ready
to use its good offices to start a dialogue. The aim was to
reach agreement with the ARS to end the Ethiopian military
presence in Somalia, effect a ceasefire in Mogadishu, and
address powersharing issues.

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REFUGEE INFLUX: NEED FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION
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5. (C) Youssouf said that while degradation of the security
situation in Somalia had long created refugee flows toward
Djibouti, the recent upswing in the use of small boats by
refugees trying to reach Yemen was a relatively new
phenomenon. Youssouf pointed to the lack of good statistics
on the numbers of people leaving Somalia, and on how many die
en route to Yemen. Youssouf said that the GODJ was working
with the TFG to address some of the refugee issues, and had
seen "tangible results" from collaboration with Ethiopia to
increase border police patrols. However, he stressed the
need for a comprehensive regional strategy, and for strong
partnerships with the U.S. and France, especially in the area
of information-sharing on the traffic of small boats in the
Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el Mandeb Strait.

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ERITREA-ETHIOPIA BORDER ISSUE
--------------


6. (C) On the Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute, Youssouf said
that "neither country can afford a new war," noting Eritrea's
dire economic situation and Ethiopia's military operations in
Somalia and the Ogaden, as well as a robust domestic
political opposition. While Youssouf said that he had
noticed that tensions had eased slightly since late 2007
(when he said some 13 Ethiopian divisions and 75,000 Eritrean
troops faced each other along the border),he also emphasized
the need for greater "diplomatic effort and pressure" by the
P-5 to reach a breakthrough. Youssouf also said that the

DJIBOUTI 00000377 002 OF 002


GODJ had, on April 15, protested Eritrean military presence
at Doumeira, on the Djibouti-Eritrea border. He said that
the Eritrean military had set up several tents "well into"
Djiboutian territory, as they had previously in 1994.


7. (C) COMMENT: Djibouti has long taken a productive, neutral
stance on neighboring conflicts, and it has every reason to
continue doing so. As Youssouf outlined, insecurity in the
neighborhood leads to higher insurance payments for shippers
and greater risks for potential investors, with a predictable
dampening impact on Djibouti's largely port-driven, foreign
investment-dependent economy. END COMMENT.


8. (U) This cable was cleared by AF/E Director Knight.


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