DJIBOUTI LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: NO SURPRISES

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 000145

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
ROME, PARIS, LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID ECON DJ
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: NO SURPRISES

REF: DJIBOUTI 103

Classified By: PolOff Rebecca K. Hunter for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: As expected, Djibouti's February 8 elections
uneventfully returned the ruling coalition, the "Union for a
Presidential Majority" (UMP),to all sixty-five seats in
Djibouti's unicameral legislature. Despite a boycott call
from a rival coalition, the "Union for Democratic
Alternation" (UAD),voter turnout was 72.6 percent, slightly
higher than in the 2005 presidential elections. However,
participation varied somewhat between Djibouti's six
winner-take-all electoral districts. The lowest turnout was
less than 65 percent in the Djibouti capital district, where
roughly 9 percent of ballots cast were declared null or
blank. Police and security forces were preventatively
deployed throughout the country on election day, and no
disturbances were reported. Teams from the African Union
(AU),Organisation internationale pour la Francophonie (OIF)
and Arab League observed the elections and have not reported
any irregularities. END SUMMARY.

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PROVISIONAL RESULTS: NO SURPRISES
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2. (U) Interior Minister Yacin Elmi Bouh announced
provisional results and participation statistics on state-run
television the afternoon of February 9. The UMP, a
five-party coalition dominated by President Guelleh's Popular
Rally for Progress (RPP),received 94 percent of the national
vote and won all 65 National Assembly seats under Djibouti's
winner-take-all system. The provisional results are expected
to become final after examination by the National Independent
Electoral Commission and official confirmation by the
Constitutional Council.


3. (C) The UMP's 65 parliamentarians include twenty-two new
candidates. That is the highest turnover to date in a
legislative election. Two new female candidates joined the
list, bringing the total number of women parliamentarians up
to nine. The distribution of seats among native Afar,
Somali, and Arabic speakers remains unchanged. A cabinet
shuffle is widely expected, and may be announced in the weeks
after the vote is officially confirmed.


4. (C) According to state-run media, total participation was
72.6 percent of Djibouti's 151,490 registered voters, roughly
on a par with the 71.7 percent participation in the 2005
presidential elections, and much higher than the 48.4 percent
turnout for the last legislative elections in 2003. However,
turnout varied among the six electoral regions, and
participation in the district of Djibouti, which includes the
capital city and the bulk of the population, was noticeably
lower--63.8 percent according to the state-run media, and
65.8 percent according to the victorious UMP. Several
Locally Engaged Staff (LES) who voted in Djibouti noted that
participation seemed fairly low, with no lines to vote and
few signatures on the voters' register. The percentage of
blank or null ballots was also slightly higher in the
district of Djibouti--9.34 percent according to the state-run
media, or 7.67 percent according to the UMP. Nationally,
only 5.9 percent of ballots cast were blank or null. (NOTE:
While the higher number of blank ballots may indicate a
protest vote, the UAD did actually call for its supporters to
boycott elections entirely, rather than to cast a blank vote.
END NOTE.)

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OPPOSITION BOYCOTTS; FAILS TO HOLD RALLY
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5. (C) Unusually sharpening his rhetoric, UAD opposition
leader Ismail Guedi had called for supporters to rally in
Djibouti City on February 1 and February 6 to protest the
electoral "masquerade" by the "dictatorial government." The
GODJ banned both meetings under electoral laws which only
permit candidates standing for current election to hold
political events during a designated campaign period.
According to the GODJ, since the UAD had already decided to
boycott the elections, it was not eligible under the law to
hold political meetings during the official campaign period.
Heavy police presence at the proposed UAD rally sites
forestalled any gatherings. Despite ratcheting up the tone
of its attacks on Guelleh and his party, the UAD failed to
draw supporters to its planned demonstrations. What is
uncertain is whether this failure is due to lack of popular
support for the UAD, or to the GODJ's actions to prevent the
rallies.


6. (C) While the GODJ was rumored to have put several
opposition leaders under house arrest for the duration of the
elections, all three major opposition leaders appeared at
Embassy Djibouti's national day celebration on February 7,
the day before elections. Security on election day itself
was tight, and no disturbances were reported.


7. (C) COMMENT: The relatively high reported voter turnout,
if accurate, may reflect voter sentiment that Djibouti is
better off today than when Guelleh was re-elected in 2005.
However, rising food and fuel prices have certainly given
ordinary Djiboutians cause for dissatisfaction with the
status quo. For its part, the generally unorganized
opposition presented no concrete platform or alternative
political agenda, and its election boycott did not appear to
gain traction. The relatively higher abstention in Djibouti
city, along with more blank votes, may indicate a greater
discontent in the capital with the paucity of electoral
options than in the rest of the country. Djibouti's
newly-elected parliamentarians will now have to address the
issues of unemployment, inflation, and government services.
END COMMENT.

SYMINGTON