BANGLADESH POLITICAL RERUN: THE SHEIKH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000982 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM BG SUBJECT: BANGLADESH POLITICAL RERUN: THE SHEIKH HASINA-KHALEDA ZIA SHOW IS BACK ON AIR Classified By: Ambassasdor James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Caretaker Government's "minus-two policy" has become an "only-two policy." Not long ago the Government envisioned removing former prime ministers Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia from politics as the key to fixing Bangladesh's dysfunctional democracy. In releasing them from jail, where they awaited trial on graft charges, over the past two months and urging them to meet together with top Government advisers, the Government has acknowleged there can be no return to democracy without the two ladies' cooperation. (Note: The government did succeed, however, in forcing Zia's notoriously corrupt eldest son, Tarique Rahman, to retire from politics and leave the country for at least a few years. End note.) While there are indications the two women are amenable to a summit, it is not yet clear how far such a meeting could advance the cause of political reform. Increasingly clear, however, is that any fundamental reform of Bangladesh's deeply corrupt political system will require the acquiesance of the two women most responsible for the country's poor governance. -------------- KHALEDA ZIA, SHEIKH HASINA TAKE CENTER STAGE -------------- ¶2. (C) Immediately after her release September 11 from jail on bail, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairwoman Khaleda Zia set about reunifying her party and getting it on track for contesting Parliamentary elections in December. She talked privately with two leaders of a reformist faction that had split with her loyalists. ONE of the reformists, Lt. Gen. (retired) Mahbubur Rahman, described the meeting as friendly and said Zia appeared less uncompromising than in the past; he subsequently took his seat at a BNP standing committee meeting that she led. Zia also met with Government advisers and agreed to enter a dialogue with the Election Commission on political reform; other political parties already have held similar talks. ¶3. (C) Awami League (AL) President Sheikh Hasina, who also faces multiple corruption charges, remains in the United States on medical parole but is expected to return to Bangladesh soon. As a sign of the two ladies return to center stage, Government advisers are seeking to hold a summit with them to smooth the path back to democracy. This would be a political coup because of the incredibly bad blood between the two women -- the Awami League, for example, still blames the BNP for an attempted assassination attempt on Hasina in August 2004. (Note: A Septel will report on Ambassador Moriarty's meeting with Education Minister Hossain Zillur Rahman on September 16, including Hossain's take on Government aspirations for the summit. End Note.) Mahbubur Rahman said Zia had expressed a willingness to participate in the summit; Awami League Acting General Secretary Syed Ashraful Islam told PolOff he would encourage Hasina to participate as well. -------------- -------------- STILL A LOT TO WORK OUT, BUT SOME HOPE FOR REFORM -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) There is a lot to work out, either at the summit or in other negotiations between the parties and the Caretaker Government, which came to power in January 2007 with a mandate to clean up Bangladesh's corrupt and violent politics. The BNP and Awami League continue to demand that the state of emergency be lifted in the run-up to the Parliamentary elections to ensure free and unfettered campaigning. They also strongly oppose Election Commission plans to hold upazilla (county) elections before the Parliament vote. (Note: In a meeting with the United Nations, the Chief Election Commissioner strongly hinted he was leaning toward delaying the local elections until January. End note.) The parties and Government have yet to agree how reforms to make the political system more transparent and less corrupt can be maintained after the election. ¶5. (C) Whether Zia and Hasina will support institutionalizing reform remains unclear. Although they have spent their political lives as absolute rulers of parties they treat as personal fiefdoms, there are tentative signs that may be DHAKA 00000982 002 OF 002 changing. Zia, for example, quickly rejected a BNP Standing Committee resolution naming her "leader for life" after it elicited howls of outrage both in and outside the BNP. Mahbubur Rahman said Zia expressed support for reform in general terms during their private meeting. Meanwhile, Syed Ashraful Islam said the Awami League had prepared an Election Manifesto that supported a number of measures to improve governance -- ONE would require Parliamentary committee meetings be open to the public and another would scrap a Constitutional clause that requires members of Parliament to vote along party lines. Until the two ladies make specific pronouncements, however, reform prospects will remain deeply uncertain. -------------- WHO'S WHO IN PARTY HIERARCHY MATTERS -------------- ¶6. (C) Who advises the ladies will be important for reform prospects. In ONE ominous sign, immediately after leaving jail Zia appeared with Salauddin Quader Chowdhury, a confidante who himself had just received bail in six cases of extortion and amassing illegal wealth. In a positive sign, Hasina derailed an effort by Awami League General Secretary Abdul Jalil to return to active duty after his release from jail on bail in six cases alleging tax evasion, bribery and concealing information on illegally acquired assets. ¶7. (C) Most important, however, was the removal of Khaleda Zia's eldest son, Tarique Rahman, from direct participation in local politics for at least a while. Regarded as phenomenally corrupt and facing multiple graft charges, he received bail and flew to London for medical treatment September 11. Zia said her son would stay out of politics until his HEALTH fully recovered, perhaps two or three years, and before leaving the country he signed a statement in which he retired from his party post as senior joint secretary general. Although some in the party already look forward to Tarique's early return -- BNP Office Secretary Ruhul Kabir Rizvi told PolOff that Tarique could return after as little as 1 1/2 years -- others are heartened by his absence. Mahbubur Rahman, for example, said Tarique's absence would lessen the influence on the party of his coterie of wildly corrupt friends and of the strongly partisan and excitable BNP youth wing. -------------- COMMENT: ENTERING A CRITICAL PHASE -------------- ¶8. (C) Caretaker Government efforts to bring lasting improvement to Bangladesh governance is entering a critical stage. Ambassador Moriarty already has publicly endorsed the Government's call for a Hasina-Zia summit as the best way to get the two ladies to buy into meaningful reform before the election. The exit of Tarique Rahman and the continued presence of at least some reform-friendly senior officials in both parties suggests that the return of the ladies does not necessarily mean a return to the bad old days of dysfunctional politics. The Embassy will continue to urge all political actors to speak to ONE another in a spirit of compromise. We will soon know if the two ladies are listening. Moriarty