TARIQUE RAHMAN RELEASED ON BAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000928 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/PB AND SCA/FO E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS KDEM ASEC BG SUBJECT: TARIQUE RAHMAN RELEASED ON BAIL REF: DHAKA 916 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) SUMMARY ======== ¶1. (C) Tarique Rahman, the notoriously corrupt and violent son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, was released from prison on September 3 after the Supreme Court rejected the Government's last minute legal efforts to block his bail. Tarique will remain in the hospital under police protection until plans for him to travel abroad for medical treatment are finalized. Begum Zia's release is expected to follow within days. While Tarique's release had been expected, the manner in which it took place highlights the Caretaker Government's inability to stage manage events. It also may leave open the door for a future role for Tarique. Tarique Rahman Released on Bail =============================== ¶2. (C) On September 3, Tarique Rahman, son of former BNP Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia was released on bail from his prison cell at the Sheikh Mujibur Rahman hospital in Dhaka. He will remain in the hospital until departing for medical treatment abroad. According to family sources, Tarique will most likely travel to the UNITED KINGDOM or Germany. At the urging of the authorities, Tarique's family has requested that he be given police protection. Tarique's release comes after an Appellate bench of Bangladesh's Supreme Court on September 1 rejected the Attorney General's challenge to the High Court's earlier decision to grant bail in all 13 pending cases. This is a stunning development for the Government, which had been negotiating to allow Tarique to travel abroad only on parole--which would have included strict conditions on his freedom. In a meeting with the Ambassador August 31, Communications Adviser Major General (ret'd) Ghulam Quader said that the CTG had been caught by surprise when Tarique's attorneys secured bail for their client. Quader said he and others in the CTG and military blamed Attorney General Salahuddin for failing to counter the defense's legal moves. Victory for Zia Family ====================== ¶3. (C) The decision to seek bail for Tarique, even as the negotiations for his parole were underway, was made by his wife Dr. Zubaida Rahman. Her attorneys had recommended against the move; they were convinced that the GOB would �A;simply file additional cases against Tarique to ensure that he remained behind bars. By being freed on bail Tarique avoids the perception that he made a deal with the Government to be released on parole. It was also a surprise that Tarique was released from jail in advance of his mother, whose reputation for being "uncompromising" has received another boost. The Deal Almost Made ==================== ¶4. (C) On August 28, BNP Secretary General Khondker Delwar Hossain and Jamaat Islami Secretary General Ali Ahsan Muhammad Mojahid's had met with Begum Zia (reftel). According to sources, Directorate General of Forces Intelligence Counter Terrorism Director Brigadier A.T.M. Amin was also present. During the meeting, Zia and Amin had discussed an agreement which would have allowed Zia and her son to be released from prison and Tarique to travel abroad for medical treatment. In exchange, Zia would have committed her party to participating in the political dialogue with the CTG and in the elections scheduled for December. Tarique would have also agreed to withdraw from politics and remain abroad for treatment and education for the foreseeable future. Tarique's release from prison on bail presumably means he will not need to remove himself from the political scene indefinitely. Next Steps for the BNP ====================== ¶5. (C) After her release, Zia is expected to take immediate DHAKA 00000928 002 OF 002 steps to reorganize the BNP and prepare for elections. Communications Adviser Quader told the Ambassador that Zia had privately committed to replace Delwar as Secretary General with someone more reasonable. Possibilities which Quader suggested include current Joint Secretary General Nazrul Islam Khan and former Minister Khandker Mosharraf Hossain, whose release from prison is also anticipated in the coming days. Recently, other senior BNP leaders have emphasized the importance of Zia taking steps to reorganize the party and replace Delwar, who despite his loyalty to Zia is seen as a liability for the party. Reactions ========= ¶6. (C) Predictably, Tarique's release precipitated celebrations by BNP supporters and public condemnations by the Awami League. In private, some BNP officials have bemoaned Tarique's reemergence from prison and worry about the implications for their party. The Awami League has sought to deflect attention from Tarique's apparent victory by threatening to launch a movement to release other imprisoned AL leaders and to have charges against Sheikh Hasina dropped. Sheikh Hasina's political secretary Dr. Hasan Mahmud said the did not think that Hasina would return to Bangladesh from the UNITED States earlier than late September; she reportedly still has a number of medical checkups scheduled as well as possible eye surgery. Comment ======= ¶7. (C) Tarique Rahman's release on bail demonstrates the limits to which the CTG and its supporters in the military can stage manage events in Bangladesh. The Advisers and even senior army officials were caught by surprise when Tarique's family decided to pursue a separate track from negotiations by seeking bail. The CTG did not anticipate that activist and partisan judges would defy their wishes, and are now forced to make the best of a bad situation. We will be meeting with government officials and politicians in the coming days to get a sense of their likely future steps. One question to be answered will be whether Tarique's release will cause the Awami League to conclude that it should also adopt a more confrontational stance towards the GOB. Moriarty