AUGUST 15 RECAP: AWAMI LEAGUE OBSERVANCE OF SHEIKH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000890

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/PB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR PINS BG
SUBJECT: AUGUST 15 RECAP: AWAMI LEAGUE OBSERVANCE OF SHEIKH
MUJIB'S DEATH ANNIVERSARY OUTSHINES BNP CELEBRATIONS OF
BEGUM ZIA'S BIRTHDAY

Classified By: ADCM Gary Mignano. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
========


1. (C) Strengthened by the Caretaker Government's last
minute decision to declare the day a "National Day of
Mourning," on August 15 the Awami League organized a very
successful nationwide program to observe the 33rd anniversary
of former Prime Minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's
assassination. Awami League leaders and supporters took
advantage of this opportunity to circumvent the restrictions
on political activity related to the ongoing State of
Emergency. For its part, the BNP was less successful in its
attempts to celebrate imprisoned former Prime Minister and
BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia's August 15 birthday. The
August 15 celebrations serve as a barometer for the current
conditions of the two major political parties as elections
approach.

Awami League Commemorates of Mujib's Assassination
============================================= =====


2. (U) On August 15, Bangladesh marked the 33rd anniversary
of the 1975 military coup which resulted in the assassination
of Awami League Prime Minister and "Father of the Nation"
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. On the eve of this year's
anniversary, the Caretaker Government declared August 15 a
"Day of National Mourning" and President Iajuddin Ahmed and
Chief Adviser Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed both traveled to Sheikh
Mujib's gravesite to pay their respects. Local television
channels broadcast discussion programs centered on Mujib's
life and political career, and focused on his leadership of
the Liberation Movement and the tragic end of his life.


3. (C) For its part, the Awami League took advantage of
the opportunity to evade the normal restrictions on large
scale public gatherings that has existed since the State of
Emergency was imposed in January 2007. Awami League leaders
and workers spent August 15 distributing food to the poor and
giving speeches in honor of Mujib. Pol/Econ Counselor spent
August 15 traveling around Bancharampur Upazilla in
Chittagong Division along with the former Awami League Member
of Parliament and other party officials from the area. The
day-long barnstorming tour was an opportunity for the party
officials and party workers to shed the restrictions on the
size of local gatherings and to openly begin campaigning for
the coming elections. At several locations, crowds well in
excess of 200 people gathered, without the party having to
seek prior police approval. Police were present at several
venues, but did not bother the Awami League workers.


4. (C) The scene in Bancharampur was repeated throughout
Bangladesh, including in Dhaka, where the Awami League's
Central Leaders took the stage. Throughout the country, AL
parliamentary candidates and local party officials took
charge. The party spent between $10,000 - 20,000 in each
area, roughly equivalent to the Parliamentary constituencies.
In speaking with P/E Counselor, party workers and leaders
were upbeat about their chances in the December elections.
They all stuck to the familiar Awami League script calling
for a lifting of the State of Emergency and postponement of
Upazilla elections. They also looked eagerly forward to the
return of their Leader, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina,
who is currently in the United States.

Birthday Party for BNP Leader More Subdued
==========================================


5. (C) When Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders
attempted to mark their founder, former President Zia
Rahman's death anniversary in May, police disrupted their
activities. On August 15, the BNP launched a half-hearted
attempt to remind people that the day was also imprisoned
former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia's birthday. In
Dhaka a group of several score BNP leaders marched on the
special jail where Begum Zia remains incarcerated, but in
other parts of the country the celebrations were subdued.
One Awami League leader blasted the BNP and Khaleda Zia for
continuing to claim that August 15 was the Begum's
birthday--a controversial claim that AL supporters have
always suspected was a disrespectful attempt to deflect
attention from Sheikh Mujib's death anniversary.

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Comment
=======


6. (C) The differences in their celebrations on August 15
reflect the different status of the two major parties with
four months remaining until elections. With their leader out
of prison, and buoyed by their success in the August 4
municipal and city corporation elections, the Awami League is
feeling very confident. Admittedly, Mujib's failures as
Prime Minister and his controversial decision to institute a
one-party state in 1974 remain a blot on his legacy. That
said, August 15 normally produces nostalgia about his role in
leading the country to independence and sympathy for the
other family members brutally murdered during the coup. For
its part, the BNP remains adrift, unsure about Khaleda Zia's
future and undecided about whether to participate in
elections. With some justification, the BNP feels that it
has borne the brunt of the Caretaker Government's wrath since
January 11, 2007. The BNP may not be "out," but they are
certainly "down."
Moriarty