AWAMI LEAGUE SWEEPS LOCAL ELECTIONS THAT ARE FIRST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000834 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR IINS BG SUBJECT: AWAMI LEAGUE SWEEPS LOCAL ELECTIONS THAT ARE FIRST UNDER CARETAKER GOVERNMENT REF: A. DHAKA 814 ¶B. DHAKA 813 ¶C. DHAKA 812 ¶D. DHAKA 781 Classified By: CDA a.i. Geeta Pasi. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Awami League stormed to victory in city and municipal elections on 8/4, the first vote under a Caretaker Government that has made cleaning up Bangladesh's graft-addled politics its central mission. Embassy election observers reported generally minor problems during the vote and none of the violence that often marred polls in the past. The observers also noted some concerns about the transparency of the count. Perhaps the most stunning victor was the Awami League mayor of Sylhet, who was reelected by a huge margin despite being jailed by the Caretaker Government on graft charges. The big loser was the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),which lost its mayoral grip on three major cities. Although the party and its alliance partners boycotted the elections to protest the imprisonment on corruption charges of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, several BNP politicians ran anyway and were trounced. The election outcome raised questions about public support for the anti-graft campaign. It also left unanswered whether the BNP would participate in the all-important Parliamentary elections scheduled for December. -------------- -------------- SOME GLITCHES, BUT NEW VOTER LIST PASSES FIRST TEST -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The local elections on August 4 were the first under the Caretaker Government and came fast on the heels of the completion of a new voter registration list that included photos of 80.5 million people. The veracity of voter rolls was a perennial issue in Bangladesh's bare-knuckled politics, and compiling the new list was the marquee project undertaken by a reconstituted Election Commission to clean-up the electoral system. About two dozen Embassy staff observers reported a smattering of generally minor problems during the vote, many of which were resolved as the day wore on. Some polling stations, for example, asked people to bring their voter registration cards even though they were not required to cast ballots. The observers also reported some of the photos on the voter list were not clear. In some polling stations, Embassy observers noted, domestic election observers were barred from viewing the ballot counting. The voting, which took place under State of Emergency regulations and a large law-enforcement presence, was peaceful. (Note: International observers will meet on August 6 to review their findings. End note.) -------------- STRONG AWAMI LEAGUE SHOWING -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The headline races were for mayor of four of Bangladesh's six major cities: Rajshahi, Khulna, Sylhet and Barisal. According to unofficial results published in the local media, the Awami League mayor of Sylhet was reelected by a more than three-to-one margin over his nearest rival despite being in jail on corruption charges. Awami League candidates won in Barisal and were winning in Khulna and Rajshahi; the outgoing mayors in all three cities were from the BNP. The Awami League also won eight of nine mayoral races in municipalities, which are far smaller than the cities, with the BNP winning the remaining seat. According to the Election Commission, turnout for the city polls ranged from 75 percent in Sylhet to 93% in Barisal. ¶4. (SBU) Mohammad Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, the office secretary for the BNP, attributed his party's poor showing to its boycott of the vote to protest the continued incarceration of Khaleda Zia on graft allegations. (Note: Although local elections are nominally non-partisan, candidates nonetheless identify themselves with their political parties. End note.) Tofail Ahmed, a Presidum member of the Awami League, said voters were turning to his party as an alternative to the BNP, which formed the last elected government, and the military-backed Caretaker Government that came to power when Bangladesh teetered on the brink of chaos amid political violence. The Awami League decided not to boycott the local elections after its leader, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was released DHAKA 00000834 002 OF 002 from jail to get medical treatment abroad despite her ongoing graft trial. ¶5. (SBU) In Rajshahi, a perenial BNP stronghold, AHM Khairuzzaman Liton was elected the city's first Awami League mayor. Having received his party's blessing, he won the support of the Awami League faithful as well as others who could not choose between several BNP candidates, none of whom received official party backing because of the boycott. In Khulna, Awami League candidate Talukder Abdul Khaleque was ahead of BNP rival and acting Mayor Moniruzzaman Moni with 194 of 239 polling centers reporting; the BNP incumbent of 17 years was in jail and did not run. In Barisal, Awami League candidate Shawkat Hossain Hiron squeaked by Sharfuddin Ahmed Santu of the Progressive Democratic Party, which was created in 2007 by politicians who supported the Caretaker Government's reform efforts. According to local media, during the tense vote count Hiron and his supporters alleged that officials were trying to rig the vote in favor of Santu; an Embassy staffer in Barisal said that at one point members of the paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion ordered domestic election observers to leave the vote counting. -------------- WHITHER ANTI-GRAFT CAMPAIGN? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Surely the landslide reelection of Sylhet Mayor Badruddin Ahmed Kamran came as a rude shock to the Caretaker Government, which jailed him on corruption charges. With all polling centers reporting, the Awami League's Kamran had 115,436 votes and his nearest competitor, AFM Kamal, lagged far behind with 32,097, according to the respected Daily Star newspaper. Although Kamran is widely viewed as corrupt, his down-to-earth reputation endeared him to voters, local observers said. The filing of charges against him by the Anti-Corruption Commission just days before the election also played into claims of a government conspiracy against his candidacy. Faruk Mahmud Chowdhury, secretary of the civil society group Shujon, said that Sylhet voters followed their emotions over their conscience. An Embassy election observer saw a rifle-toting, uniformed policeman shout with joy when he discovered Kamran was ahead at the polling station where he was stationed. When asked to explain his behavior, the policeman said that despite allegations of large-scale corruption Kamran was still a good man who would talk to street beggars and other common people. -------------- COMMENT: ON TO DECEMBER -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite some hiccups, the city and municipal voting show that the Election Commission's hard work in compiling a photo-based election roll and an updated electoral rules has paid off. Organizing nationwide Parliamentary elections in December and upazilla (county) elections in October appears imminently doable. Far less clear is whether Bangladeshis are listening to the Caretaker Government's exhortations to choose clean politicians. So too, is whether the BNP and its alliance partners will contest the Parliamentary election and thereby boost chances it will be viewed as free, fair and credible. The BNP, after loosing four key mayoral races, may decide that election boycotts are not the best path back to power. Alternatively, it might conclude that the political cards are stacked against it -- BNP leaders frequently say they believe Caretaker Government officials favor the Awami League -- and remain recalcitrant. Ultimately, the decision will be made by Khaleda Zia, who is in talks with the Government over terms of her release and that of her imprisoned and ailing son, Tarique Rahman. Post will continue to urge all political players to make compromises and support electoral reforms to ensure that what will likely be a technically sound national election in December is not an empty exercise. Pasi