BANGLADESH ARMY CHIEF KEEPS HIS EYE ON THE PRIZE:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000692

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/PB AND SCA/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS MARR EAID KDEM BG
SUBJECT: BANGLADESH ARMY CHIEF KEEPS HIS EYE ON THE PRIZE:
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


SUMMARY
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1. (C) Bangladesh's Army Chief General Moeen Uddin Ahmed
reiterated his goal continued to be "free, fair and credible
elections" by the end of the year so power could be "handed
over to a democratically elected government." In a June 26
meeting with the Ambassador, Moeen noted that the Caretaker
Government was discussing with the political parties a
handful of ideas, including adjusting the roles of the
President and Prime Minister, reviewing Bangladesh's
Constitution, and even contemplating a national unity
government. Moeen emphasized the political parties and
others needed to agree to the post-election scenario, which
is why the government was negotiating with the two former
Prime Ministers. He vehemently denied any military
involvement in choosing candidates for upcoming elections and
highlighted local elections as a means of re-distributing
power and patronage away from the center. On the topic of
counterterrorism, Moeen welcomed opportunities for
U.S.-Bangladesh cooperation in improving security at
Bangladesh's borders in light of findings from recent border
assessments. Moeen struck all the right notes in the meeting
and appeared upbeat about his country's prospects in the near
and longer term.

ELECTIONS ON TRACK
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2. (C) Chief of Army Staff General Moeen Uddin Ahmed told
the Ambassador the objective of "free, fair and credible
elections" and a return to a "democratically-elected
government" remained his top priority. He added that meeting
this goal had required some re-adjustments, including the
decision to negotiate parole options with the two imprisoned
former Prime Ministers. He described the dialogue between
the Caretaker Government (CTG) and the political parties as
critical to hammering out a consensus with regard to the
shape of the government that would take power after December
elections. Moeen said he did not want to see post-election
uncertainty in Bangladesh reminiscent of uncertainty facing
Pakistan and Nepal following recent elections there.


3. (C) "Two or three ideas" were being mulled in the
political dialogue, Moeen said, including a re-definition of
the powers of the President and the Prime Minister. As a
result, it was likely Bangladesh's Constitution would need
review and revision in the next three years. A national
unity government was among the ideas being discussed, Moeen
acknowledged in response to a question from the Ambassador,
but Moeen added the government was seeking a consensus
solution that would be publicly affirmed by the parties and
civil society.

NEGOTIATING WITH THE TWO LADIES
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4. (C) The ability to move toward a consensus was the key to
the government's "re-adjustment" of its policy toward the two
former Prime Ministers, Moeen admitted. In seeking a deal
with Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina, the government offer
of parole on medical grounds required her agreement that
corruption trials would continue in her absence. Moeen said
the CTG had made the same offer to Begum Khaleda Zia, of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),who had said she would
agree to nothing unless her two sons, also in prison on
corruption-related charges, were released. Moeen said Zia's
younger son, Arafat (Koko) Rahman, definitely would be
released. Moeen indicated the government was willing to
accept a similar arrangement for Zia's older son, Tarique
Rahman, despite the fact he had "taken so much of the
nation's resources." According to Moeen, delays on the part
of Tarique and his lawyers have slowed the finalization of
this deal. Moeen added Tarique's back problems were the
result of a serious fall in 2005. (NOTE: There are credible
reports that Tarique's back problems were at least
exacerbated by torture while in custody. END NOTE.) It
appeared Begum Zia would not seek to leave the country for
medical treatment, which wasn't surprising to Moeen because
she was "not sick."


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LOCAL GOVERNANCE AND THE ROLE OF MILITARY
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5. (C) Turning to local elections, some of which are
scheduled for August 4, Moeen called them critical to
decentralizing power and bolstering transparency. Local
elections had to be held before national elections in order
to ensure Members of Parliament did not interfere in local
polls. Empowered local officials would be able to diminish
the power Members of Parliament had over their
constituencies; in the past MPs were able to divert funds
meant for the localities, and they seldom visited the people
they were elected to represent. This power vacuum at the
local level meant local thugs could take advantage of
residents.


6. (C) Moeen categorically denied the military was trying to
influence which candidates ran for office. He said any such
reports were only rumors, adding that "Bangladesh is a nation
of rumors." Moeen explained the military was slowly removing
itself from playing an active role in government. He said
the military would act to ensure a level playing field for
all and would speak up on its preferences for the kind of
leaders that should run the country but would not seek to put
a particular person in a position of leadership.

COOPERATION ON IMPROVING BORDER SECURITY
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7. (C) The Ambassador reviewed the preliminary findings of
recent USG surveys of Bangladesh's border protection
procedures, noting a lot of room for improvement and the
potential for U.S.-Bangladesh cooperation in this area.
Moeen agreed that Bangladesh's borders were very porous and
welcomed opportunities for coordination both with the United
States and other nations in the region. He said the U.S.
could be helpful in terms of equipment and training, while
regional cooperation needed to focus on information-sharing.

COMMENT
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8. (C) Moeen appeared relaxed and optimistic in the meeting.
He continues to talk the talk when it comes to elections and
the post-election scenario. However, getting consensus from
the political parties on the kinds of changes he discussed
will be challenging, to say the least. While Hasina's
release brought the Awami League (AL) to the negotiating
table, there is no guarantee the AL will endorse the
consensus Moeen and the Caretaker Government seek.
Meanwhile, a similar deal with Begum Zia and the BNP remains
in limbo, as do efforts to reunify the fractured party.
Moeen's denial that officials with ties to the military are
seeking to influence who runs for office contradicts
first-hand reports we've had from party figures that the
intelligence services are seeking to identify sympathetic
candidates for local elections.

Moriarty