SHEIKH HASINA SET TO DEPART BANGLADESH JUNE 12

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000628 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/PB AND SCA/FO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS KDEM KCOR OVIP ASEC BG SUBJECT: SHEIKH HASINA SET TO DEPART BANGLADESH JUNE 12 REF: A. A) DHAKA 622 ¶B. B) DHAKA 608 ¶C. C) DHAKA 609 Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is now set to depart Bangladesh the morning of June 12 local time, according to her personal staff. She is scheduled to arrive in Boston the evening of June 12 local time. Her staff said they expected she would stay in the States for a couple weeks, mainly for medical checkups, and then proceed to Canada to visit her daughter. After that she might return to Boston, where her son resides. While her chief of security reported Hasina hoped to be released well in advance of her departure, it seems more likely that the authorities might release her the evening of June 11. She reportedly would remain at her home in Dhaka between her release and departure, where she would likely meet with several Advisers to the Caretaker Government to officially kick off a political dialogue between the Government and her party, the Awami League. If all goes according to plan -- and it is still possible the plan could get derailed, this would be a significant victory for the Caretaker Government, which desperately wants to sit down with the major political parties to pave the way for parliamentary elections by the end of the year. Bangladesh's two main political parties have thus far refused to participate in the political dialogue, in part because they have demanded their leaders be released from jail. Progress appears to be slower on plans for former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),and her sons. HASINA'S DEPARTURE NOW SET FOR JUNE 12 -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) According to her personal staff, legal and technical obstacles to Sheikh Hasina's departure from Bangladesh have been resolved (Ref A),and she is scheduled to depart the country on the morning of June 12 via British Airlines flight 144. She is scheduled to travel via London to Boston, landing at 1825 local time June 12 on British Airlines flight 215. According to Niaz Ahmed (Ref B),who has been working with Government Adviser Hossain Zillur Rahman to negotiate the details of Hasina's release, the former Prime Minister would leave the sub-jail on the grounds of Parliament the evening of June 11, stop to lay a wreath on her father's grave and then return to her home in the Dhanmondi neighborhood of Dhaka. Ahmed said some of the Advisers from the Caretaker Government (CTG) would meet Hasina and one or two Awami League leaders that evening, which would constitute the opening discussion of a political dialogue between the Awami League and the CTG. ¶3. (S/NF) Once in the United States, Hasina would visit her son in Boston and seek medical treatment for a variety of ailments, including hearing impairment. Under the current plan, she would then proceed to Toronto, where her daughter resides. (NOTE: According to the Canadian High Commissioner in Bangladesh, the Canadian government has cleared the way for a visa to be issued to Hasina, but the Canadian mission here has not yet received a visa application for her. END NOTE.) After visiting her daughter, Hasina would return to Boston. It is possible that one or more of the Advisers would travel to Canada or the United States to continue the political dialogue with her. Ahmed said he envisioned Hasina returning to Bangladesh after a couple months to take her place at the head of the Awami League for further discussions with the CTG. LITTLE APPARENT PROGRESS ON A DEAL WITH BEGUM ZIA -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) There are no indications yet that the Caretaker Government has made further progress in hashing out a deal with former Prime Minister Zia and her sons. Zia appears firm, for the moment, in her desire to remain in Bangladesh, as she stated in court earlier this week (Ref A). Dhaka's chattering classes speculate that Zia's younger son, ARAFAT DHAKA 00000628 002 OF 002 (Koko) Rahman, may be sent abroad for medical treatment. Her elder son, Tarique, appeared in court June 9 in connection with one of the corruption cases against him, but was in such poor health that he had to be taken back to the hospital less than an hour after arriving at the courthouse. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) The plans for Sheikh Hasina's departure appear to be moving ahead, though there is still plenty of time for last minute changes. In a conversation with Acting Pol/Econ Chief, Ahmed spoke at length of the need for Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League to work with the CTG to find an acceptable path to parliamentary elections in December. He spoke of plans to limit Hasina's "exposure" -- in the next couple weeks at least -- to elements inside and outside the party that oppose dialogue with the CTG. For example, he noted concern that while in Boston Hasina might come in contact with prominent Bangladeshis scheduled to participate in an upcoming conference on Bangladesh being held at Harvard. Ahmed touted the CTG's views with regard to next steps in the political process, but it remains to be seen whether Hasina will follow their lead. Moriarty