BANGLADESH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION SET FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000526

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR KDEM PHUM BG
SUBJECT: BANGLADESH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION SET FOR
DECEMBER, BUT ROAD TO DEMOCRACY REMAINS ROCKY


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Chief Adviser announced in a nationally broadcast
speech that Parliamentary elections would take place the
third week of December and government dialogue with political
parties start May 22. He also announced a relaxation of
restrictions on political activity to facilitate campaigning
and called for a national charter to improve governance. He
did not address the demand of the two major political parties
for the release from jail of their two leaders, nor did he
promise to lift emergency power rules as called for by senior
politicians. There were no surprises in the speech, which
included many of the ideas the Chief Adviser had previewed in
recent meetings with senior USG officials. Awami League and
Bangladesh Nationalist Party officials immediately dismissed
the Chief Adviser's speech as insufficient. While the speech
was a milestone on the road back to democracy, the parties'
negative reaction underscores the difficulties that lie ahead.

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CHIEF ADVISER FILLS IN ELECTION ROADMAP DETAILS
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2. (U) In an address to the nation on 5/12, Chief Adviser
Fakhruddin Ahmed set Parliamentary elections for the third
week of December, to be preceeded by local elections at the
municipal and upazilla (county) level. He said some emergency
restrictions on political activity in place since the
Caretaker Government (CTG) came to power in January 2007
would be lifted on May 13, and other emergency rules would be
eased as necessary to allow for campaigning. Fakhruddin
announced that the long-awaited dialogue on political reform
between the Caretaker Government and political parties would
begin on May 22, and he called for a national charter to put
in place "a proper and fair electoral framework."


3. (SBU) Although he did not specify how the charter would be
drafted, the dialogue with political parties would be a
likely forum. Throughout his speech he railed against
corruption, extreme partisanship and political violence, the
scourges of Bangladeshi politics that the national charter
would likely proscribe. Fakhruddin also called for a greater
balance of political power, presumably a reference to
increasing the clout of the now largely ceremonial President
as a check on the Prime Minister and to providing a role for
the military in a national security council. Both measures
are under consideration by the CTG.

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POLITICAL PARTY DEMANDS LARGELY IGNORED
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4. (C) Fakhruddin did not address demands that the two
parties' leaders in jail on corruption charges, Awami League
President Sheikh Hasina and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia, be
released and allowed to participate in the election
campaigns. He did not announce a timetable for ending
emergency rule, which places numerous restrictions on civil
liberties. Although Fakhruddin said a ban on so-called
"indoor politics" would be lifted May 13, newly gazetted
rules suggest such political activity will remain restricted.
For example, political meetings will require official
approval and be limited to discussions of organizational and
election issues. Fakhruddin did promise to suspend or relax
other emergency regulations when appropriate "to create a
favorable atmosphere for the election and ease the poll
campaigns" but provided neither concrete details nor a
timetable. (Note: In earlier conversations with Assistant
Secretary Boucher and the Ambassador, the Chief Adviser
suggested that the lifting of restrictions would be done
sequentially and would depend on the parties' reaction to the
increasingly permissive atmosphere. End Note.) Fakhruddin did
bow to the demands of the parties for separate dialogues with
the government rather than a large plenary session.


5. (C) The Chief Adviser announced local upazilla (county)
elections would precede Parliamentary elections, arguing they
would "create a positive flow toward greater national
elections." The Awami League and BNP, however, have argued
that upazilla elections should come after formation of the
next Parliament. They fear local elections under the
Caretaker Government would advantage candidates who owe
allegience to the CTG's military backers and not to the

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political parties. Putting it another way, other observers
note that the two big parties would be better able to
dominate the local elections once their members are elected
to Parliament.

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COMMENT: NO CLARITY YET ON THE WAY BACK TO DEMOCRACY
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6. (C) Although Fakhruddin Ahmed clarified the timetable for
Parliamentary elections, significant obstacles on
Bangladesh's road to democracy remain. He did not address
perhaps the single most important political issue, the fate
of the two ladies. He did not agree to lift emergency rules,
which the political parties see as a necessary prerequisite
to free, fair and credible elections. And he introduced the
concept of a national charter to rid the country of
dysfunctional politics, but did not indicate how it would be
drafted or approved. Ominously, the Secretary General of the
BNP went so far as to question the right of the CTG to
propose such a national charter. Indeed, the harsh reaction
of the parties to what was a fairly anodyne speech that
offered a few olive branches underscored how difficult
compromise could prove in the coming months. The parties --
amd their two leaders -- appear to believe increasingly that
they have the Caretaker Government on the ropes.
Moriarty