INDIA'S HIGH COMMISSIONER SAYS RELEASE THE TWO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000500 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2018 TAGS: PREL BG SUBJECT: INDIA'S HIGH COMMISSIONER SAYS RELEASE THE TWO LADIES Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) India's High Commissioner to Bangladesh expressed strong support for releasing the two former prime ministers who are in jail on corruption charges. During a courtesy call by Ambassador Moriarty on 5/1, the Indian High Commissioner stressed the continuing popularity of the two former prime ministers, Awami League President Sheikh Hasina and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairwoman Khaleda Zia, and the reluctance of their parties to negotiate a return to democracy with the Caretaker Government while they were in custody. The Indian also expressed deep concerns about the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, which he said was in cahoots with extremists, and about counterterrorism cooperation between India and Bangladesh, which he said was progressing at a snail's pace. The High Commissioner clearly was worried about political stability in Bangladesh and was eager for USG support for freeing the two ladies as a way to defuse the situation. -------------- -------------- ESCAPE FROM POLITICAL QUAGMIRE REQUIRES RELEASE OF THE LADIES -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) India's High Commissioner Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty told Ambassador Moriarty that a "working formula" to return Bangladesh to democracy would require the release of Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, two former prime ministers jailed by the Caretaker Government on corruption charges. Chakravarty noted the failed efforts of the military-backed government to remove the two ladies from politics by exiling them and their growing popularity as they awaited trial after months of imprisonment. Calls from the parties for Hasina and Zia to participate in the electoral process (the Caretaker Government has promised Parliamentary polls by the end of the year) were growing, with the head of the breakaway reformist faction of the BNP the latest to chime in on May 2. "I believe it will boil down to the release of the two ladies," said High Commissioner Chakravarty. "The final solution might hinge on this." The military backers of the Caretaker Government, however, had so far been reluctant to free Hasina and Zia, particularly before their trials were completed. ¶3. (C) Ambassador Moriarty expressed concern that release of the two women without completion of their trials could lead to a return to the culture of political impunity that existed during the Hasina and Zia administrations, which were riddled with endemic corruption. The Indian High Commissioner said he did not advocate dropping the graft charges but instead wanted the two women out of jail on bail to "give them a little space." He acknowledged the importance of removing the most corrupt Bangladeshis from the political process. However, without reaching a compromise during the upcoming dialogue between the Caretaker Government and the political parties, he warned, the natural tendency of the army would be to coopt the will of the people. He noted reports that the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence was busily recruiting candidates for the Parliamentary elections. He said the military intelligence unit had to be warned of the dangers of its continued efforts to manipulate politics. -------------- Islamic Extremists and Counterterrorism -------------- ¶4. (C) High Commissioner Chakravarty spoke strongly against Jamaat-e-Islami (JI),the largest Islamist political party in Bangladesh and the junior partner in the most recent BNP-led government (2001-2006). He said JI was "incorrigibly anti-Indian" and had its tentacles everywhere in society, running banks, businesses and madrassas and getting funding from Islamic charities abroad. Chakravarty maintained the Jamaat was not peaceful and had a core of disciplined cadres who would take to the streets when ordered to do so. "Giving space to Jamaat is not a good idea," he said. (Comment: Jamaat leaders insist the party is against violence and is devoted to the democratic process. End Comment.) ¶5. (C) Chakravarty added that the Government of Bangladesh sometimes went into denial on the issue of terrorist activity, particularly insurgents who worked from Bangladesh to attack India. He said Bangladesh gradually was becoming more comfortable working on counterterrorism with the U.S. DHAKA 00000500 002 OF 002 and the U.K., but he described cooperation with India as progressing only slowly. Chief of Army Staff General Moeen Uddin Ahmed's trip to India earlier this year was a useful step in advancing counterterrorism cooperation, but, Chakravarty suggested, Bangladesh's non-response to India's repatriation of a handful of wanted criminals was disappointing. During Moeen's visit to India, the COAS reiterated he had no personal political ambition. Chakravarty said India had no problem with Moeen pursuing political office "after he takes off his uniform." -------------- -------------- COMMENT: INDIA NERVOUS ABOUT BANGLADESH'S POLITICAL STABILITY -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Predictably, Chakravarty made only a tepid endorsement of the leader of the anti-India BNP, Khaleda Zia. In Contrast, he was much more categorical in proclaiming the continuing popularity of the Awami League's Sheikh Hasina, who is widely perceived as being pro-India. That said, the Indian High Commissioner was clearly signaling his country's grave concern that Bangladesh's planned transition back to democracy could go awry. Political unrest in Bangladesh would make it easier for Islamic terrorists to use it as a base for attacks on India. Additionally, the sidelining of the two women might diminish the broad appeal of their dynastically based parties and create an environment from which Jamaat could benefit politically. Despite the two ladies' leading role in Bangladesh's past dysfunctional politics, the High Commissioner viewed them not so much as part of the problem but as an integral part of the answer as the country struggles to maintain political stability. Moriarty