CHITTAGONG GODFATHER FACES TOUGH RE-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001344 SIPDIS PASS TO PEACE CORPS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BG SUBJECT: CHITTAGONG GODFATHER FACES TOUGH RE-ELECTION BATTLE; ARMY DEPLOYS TO PREVENT HANKY-PANKY IN HIS CONSTITUENCY DHAKA 00001344 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Geeta Pasi. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) One of the earliest and biggest targets of the Caretaker Government's drive to clean up government is back on the campaign travel in a tough fight to hold onto his Parliament seat in Chittagong District. Salauddin Quader (SQ) Chowdhury, the parliamentary affairs adviser to former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),is facing what many observers believe will be a close battle with a first-time candidate from the Awami League. Chowdhury acknowledged he was not a shoo-in to recapture the seat he first won in 1991. He alleged a strong military presence in the constituency in the final days of the campaign was designed to subvert his candidacy, and he indicated he would not sit quietly should he lose. His claims were consistent with those of other BNP leaders who appear to be laying the groundwork to blame a nationwide loss on the Caretaker Government and its military supporters. -------------- THE GODFATHER OF CHITTAGONG -------------- ¶2. (C) Chittagong 6 is a rural constituency a pleasant 45-minute drive from Chittagong city along a two-lane road flanked by rice fields and gently rolling forested hills. Chowdhury, a shipping magnate, was first elected to Parliament from the region in 1991 and was reelected in 1996 and 2001; he was one of Khaleda Zia's closest advisers when she was Prime Minister from 2001-2006. Yet he is reputed to have been involved in crimes such as gunrunning and extortion since Bangladesh won independence from Pakistan in 1971, according to the influential English-language newspaper The Daily Star. In an article in 2007, the newspaper said "from farmers to businessmen, all suffered greatly at the hands of (Chowdhury's) hoodlums. Members of the minority communities were the worst affected." Chowdhury was one of the most prominent politicians sent to jail by the Caretaker Government in the anti-corruption drive it launched soon after coming to power in January 2007. Chowdhury was accused of cattle theft and extortion, but was released on bail along with many other high-profile politicians in the months leading to the December 29 Parliamentary elections. ¶3. (SBU) In a 12/23 interview with PolOff on the veranda of his home built on a hillock just off his constituency's main road, Chowdhury acknowledged the race against first-time candidate Dr. Hasan Mahmud, the special personal aide to Awami League President Sheikh Hasina, was an "uphill task;" he said he would not be a "shoo-in" as in the past. (Note: In 2001, Chowdhury received about 65,000 votes, some 10,000 more than his Awami League challenger. End Note.) Wearing a white punjabi and chain smoking from a stubby cigarette holder, Chowdhury said he had just turned his attention to the race with Dr. Hasan after spending most of his time on his other race in Chittagong 2 (Note: Candidates can compete for up to three seats; should a candidate win more than one race, by-elections will determine the other seats. End note.) ¶4. (C) Among the challenges Chowdhury said he faces were a large number of young, first-time voters he said were not following voting patterns of their elders. He also cited poor service by some of his local representatives in responding to requests from his constituents when he was in Dhaka. Interviews with some local voters provide anecdotal evidence supporting Chowdhury's concerns. At the Arfat Teahouse in Chandraghona town, a 19-year-old first-time voter said he favored the Awami League candidate because he was born in the constituency and was highly educated. (Note: Dr. Hasan earned a doctorate in environmental chemistry in Belgium. End note). And Mohammad Shamsul Haque, an elementary school teacher, said he had voted for Chowdhury several times before but would not this year, citing the poor response of Chowdhury's local representatives to the needs of the people. Still, Chowdhury said he fully expected to ultimately prevail. -------------- HASAN PROVING A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGER -------------- DHAKA 00001344 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Dr. Hasan is proving to be a tireless campaigner, traveling from village to village in a Toyota Prado topped by a miniature boat -- the Awami League symbol -- made of orange marigolds and red roses. PolOff caught up with Dr. Hasan while he gave a stump speech in Kodala town, standing on a make-shift dias on a field wedged between the lazy Karnafuli River and a rutted dirt road lined with small shops. About 300 men gathered round as Dr. Hasan urged villagers to reject "godfather" politics. He said the Awami League would roll back prices to the lower levels enjoyed when it was last in power, from 1996-2001. He also stressed he native roots. In a short interview with PolOff after the speech, Dr. Hasan said he worried Chowdhury would use his substantial wealth to buy voters, would use a legion of goons to intimidate Awami League voters to stay home on election day, and would instigate clashes between the two camps to create a chaotic situation he could exploit. -------------- THE ARMY TAKES UP POSITION -------------- ¶6. (C) Chowdhury said he was not a godfather in the mafia sense, but instead described himself as a local leader whose assistance was often sought to settle family disputes and to win justice for the mistreated poor. Echoing other BNP leaders, he raised concerns that the election would instead be a "selection" of candidates approved by the military-supported Caretaker Government. He noted the presence of soldiers patrolling his constituency in machine gun-mounted jeeps and said they were asking the whereabouts of his prominent supporters. "This is intimidating," he said. ¶7. (C) Indeed, the military presence was striking; EmbOff saw two patrol jeeps soon after entering the constituency and visited a newly established army bivouac at Rangonia College a few minutes from Chowdhury's residence. Captain Mohammad Abdul Kader said about 80 soldiers set up temporary quarters at the college December 19 in support of the local civilian administration. Other military "elements" were stationed elsewhere in the constituency, he added, but refused to give details. Captain Kader said the gun-mounted patrols were designed "to show the terrorists we mean business" and to deter political thuggery. Although it was not immediately clear whether other constituencies had a similar military presence, EmbOff said he had not seen similar patrols in previous elections. Local citizens interviewed by PolOff all said they welcomed the military show of force. -------------- COMMENT: EXPECT SORE LOSERS -------------- ¶8. (C) Several Chittagong-based journalists and some local officials said they expected a hard-fought contest for Chowdhury's seat. Although public polling published on 12/24 in The Daily Star showed the Awami League maintains a double-digit lead nationwide, a flurry of accusations from Chowdhury and other BNP leaders indicated they would claim any loss the result of a stolen election. Chowdhury did so by questioning the motives of the army presence in his constituency, and he recently told a longterm foreign election observer he would not take any loss quietly. The party, meanwhile, took aim at the timing of the Anti-Corruption Commission's accusation that Khaleda Zia's youngest soon took bribes from international corporate giant Siemens. If the polls are correct and the Awami League wins comfortably, BNP cries of foul may yet stymie a smooth return to democracy after two years of Caretaker Government rule. MORIARTY