CAMPAIGNS IN FULL SWING: OPTIMISM PREVAILS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001336 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/PB, SCA/FO, DRL; DEPT PASS TO PEACE CORPS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BG SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNS IN FULL SWING: OPTIMISM PREVAILS IN DHAKA, TANGAIL, AND JESSORE DHAKA 00001336 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary ======== ¶1. (C) Voters and observers in traditional BNP strongholds of Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore Districts told visiting Embassy officers they thought elections would be free, fair, and credible. While there has been little change in party platforms, candidates have largely observed the electoral code of conduct. Both BNP and AL candidates complained about the limited campaigning time available before the December 29 election. BNP candidates seemed particularly disgruntled about the role of the Election Commission and the effects of delimitation. Some observers expressed concern about the role of the army on election day, but most predicted this election would be less violent and more credible than previous polls. Business as Usual: Personality-Based Campaigning ============================================= === ¶2. (C) In general, voters in Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore told visiting Embassy Officers they were hopeful elections would be free, fair, and credible. Voters hoped that the significance of this election, (as a big step in the transition back to democracy) the work of the Election Commission, and the presence of thousands of observers would eventually force the losing party to acquiesce and accept the results, even if their first reaction would be to cry foul. As we have heard in other regions, voters said they were mainly concerned about food prices, law and order, corruption and local development issues. For their part, candidates for the most part have avoided addressing these issues head-on. Instead of discussing issues, personalities continue to dominate the campaign. Voters More Educated and Empowered ====================================== ¶3. (C) Many observers reported a significant increase in voter awareness this year, describing the electorate as better informed about the issues and the electoral process, as well as more likely to hold the parties accountable. Observers said voters appeared empowered by their new voter-ID cards and had a sense of confidence the recently compiled voter list would help ensure a fair vote count on December 29. In addition, civil society representatives credited the media for this positive development, noting that daily newspapers were now available even in rural areas. BNP Candidates Still Concerned about Delimitation ============================================= ==== ¶4. (C) BNP candidates in Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore registered grievances against the Election Commission, questioning its neutrality and complaining about the delimitation (re-districting) process. The incumbent candidate in Jessore 3 believed that 12,000 of his strongest supporters had been pulled into a neighboring constituency. Former MP and lead petitioner against the delimitation process, incumbent candidate Abdul Mannan, complained he would not have the time to reach all the voters in his constituency since it had doubled in area. Despite this, BNP candidates said they were prepared for the election and optimistic that voters would return them to power. Other observers agreed that the re-drawing of constituency boundaries in Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore could lead to much closer races in the historically BNP-dominated areas. Still, journalists and election observers overwhelmingly agreed that the Election Commission had acted neutrally throughout the pre-election process. All expected, nevertheless, that the BNP would cry foul if it lost on December 29. Candidates Observing Code of Conduct in Jessore ============================================= == ¶5. (C) During Emboffs December 15-17 travel to Jessore (Khulna Division),black and white campaign flags adorned the streets and villages took on a festive air. Local observers noted that candidates, by and large, had thus far acted in accordance with the election code of conduct. At the same time, many expressed disappointment that Khaleda Zia had gone negative and claimed a government conspiracy in her recent Jessore campaign tour. Emboffs noted the lack of campaign posters on buildings and banners on the streets -- a striking difference from the 2006 pre-election atmosphere. Some DHAKA 00001336 002.2 OF 002 observers speculated one local BNP candidate might have begun paying bribes. For the most part, however our contacts agreed candidates were abiding by the code of conduct and that the pre-election atmosphere would be much more conducive for peaceful elections than in previous election years. Some Observers Question Role of the Army ======================================== ¶6. (C) Most observers agreed that the deployment of the army would help to deter election-related violence. However, some civil society representatives in Tangail questioned the role of the army on election day. Some journalists reported a general fear of the army in Tangail, in part due to the 2007 killing of Garo activist Choilesh Ritchil in Madhuphur. In addition, they were skeptical that high-level army officials would be willing to turn power back over to the political parties. Moreover, they believed that some constituents - especially Garo tribe members ) might be unwilling to vote in the presence of army personnel. Civil society representatives did agree, however, that the presence of numerous local and international observers during this election might help to assuage those fears. Observers in Jessore were not of the same mind as the army. Some noted that while army personnel could be intimidating de facto, the presence of the army on Election Day would be generally accepted and in most cases appreciated, as the army could serve to deter acts of political violence. Comment ======= ¶7. (SBU) During Emboffs pre-election visits throughout Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore, voters and observers clearly expressed their expectation of a free, fair, and credible election on December 29. With the campaign season now in full swing, we will continue to assess whether candidates are abiding by the code of conduct. In Jessore, candidates, voters and observers acknowledged a peaceful campaign atmosphere. We are hopeful this sentiment will be reflected throughout the rest of the country now that the State of Emergency has been lifted. We will continue to assess preparations for the December 29 elections next week and as we begin to deploy our observer teams for Election Day. MORIARTY