KHALEDA ZIA DRAWS BIG CROWDS ON THE CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001325 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BG SUBJECT: KHALEDA ZIA DRAWS BIG CROWDS ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, BUT WHERE'S THE JUBILATION? DHAKA 00001325 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Amid heavy security, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairwoman Khaleda Zia drew large but less-than-rapturous crowds during a one-day swing through Bogra District on 12/17. Many thousands of people attended each of three major rallies in the district, a stronghold of BNP support. They heard her rip the Caretaker Government that has ruled since January 2007 and accuse it of being in cahoots with the Awami League, the other major political party in Bangladesh. She appeared to be framing the election as a referendum on the Caretaker Government. She barely touched on the main issues of her party's manifesto for the December 29 election, instead presenting a largely negative campaign message. -------------- THE KHALEDA KARNIVAL HITS BOGRA -------------- ¶2. (SBU) POLOFF attended two political rallies for Khaleda Zia when she swung through Bogra on 12/17, one at Sherpur upazilla (county) and another in the center of Bogra city. The Sherpur event drew perhaps 10,000 people, nearly all of them men, to a large field at the side of the main Dhaka-Bogra road. Hundreds of people stood along the adjacent road and perched atop the walls and buildings surrounding the field to get a good look at what was the biggest show to hit Bogra in a long time. Arriving several hours late, Zia finally drove up in a white Mercedes S600 accompanied by a truckload of soldiers, Special Security Force personal guards and an ambulance. After being helped up the steep steps to the dais, where she sat in a throne-like chair while being introduced, Zia gave an eight-minute speech trashing the current Caretaker Government. The crowd applauded only occassionally and appeared less than jubilant. After she introduced the local BNP candidate for Parliament, her retinue quickly left and the crowd dispersed quietly. Her evening rally in Bogra appeared to draw more people but also failed to fire up the faithful. Although she spoke forcefully, her voice nearly breaking at times, the crowd rarely applauded with energy. Hundreds of people began streaming from the mid-town event even before her 25-minute speech ended. -------------- ZIA BLASTS THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Zia devoted her speeches primarily to blasting the Caretaker Government, which she said was formed with the connivance of the Awami League when the latter realized it could not win elections scheduled for January 2007. She accused the Caretaker Governemnt of allowing prices to explode and development work to grind to a halt. She also said Bangladeshis had lived in fear and had not been free to speak their minds during the Government's two-year State of Emergency, which ended on December 17. Zia also criticized the Caretaker Government for jailing her two sons, both of whom she said were healthy when they entered prison but in poor physical shape when released to go abroad for medical treatment. She also reminded her supporters that she had refused to buckle to pressure from the Caretaker Government to leave the country as a condition for her jail release. That was a none-too-subtle swipe at her political arch-foe, Awami League President Sheikh Hasina, who also was jailed on graft charges but agreed to leave the country on medical parole. (Note: Hasina returned in November to lead her party in the upcoming elections. End note.) ¶4. (SBU) A subtext of Zia's speeches was her special relationship to Bogra, birthplace of her husband and BNP founder, former President Ziaur Rahman. In one of her few lines that received enthusiastic applause, she noted Bogra had benefited greatly under BNP governments resonsible for building local medical and nursing colleges, hospitals and wider roads. She devoted minimal time to discussing the party's election manifesto. At the Bogra rally, she gave a perfunctory listing of the manifesto's main points of DHAKA 00001325 002.2 OF 002 ensuring low commodity prices, greater employment and more electricity production. -------------- -- COMMENT: GOING NEGATIVE FAILS TO FIRE THE CROWD -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Going negative is a time-honored staple of Bangladeshi politics. Yet Zia failed to greatly fire up the friendly Bogra crowds with her rants against the current regime. Although Bangladeshis have blamed the Caretaker Government for sharply rising prices, they also applauded its campaign against corruption, particularly the early stages when it hauled many prominent lawmakers and businessmen into jail. Despite Zia's comments to the contrary, the State of Emergency actually had little effect on the lives of most Bangladeshis. Arguing that the Caretaker Government was the brainchild of the Awami League also may be difficult for some to accept given that both Hasina and Zia were jailed during its rule. As a result, framing the campaign as a referendum on the Caretaker Government may create as many political risks as opportunities for the BNP. One effect of the strategy is to heighten concerns among Caretaker Government officials and their military supporters that they may become victims of political retribution should the BNP win the election. MORIARTY