BANGLADESH QUIETLY PREPARES FOR COUNTY LEVEL POLLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001310 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2018 TAGS: BG ECON KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI SUBJECT: BANGLADESH QUIETLY PREPARES FOR COUNTY LEVEL POLLS DHAKA 00001310 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty; reason 1.4 (b)&(d) Summary ======== ¶1. (C) Virtually ignored as the campaign for Bangladesh,s December 29 national parliamentary elections kicks off, preparations for the upazila (county) elections appear to be moving forward. Nearly 10,000 candidates have filed nomination papers with the Election Commission (EC) to run for upazila Chairman or Vice Chairman. If they take place as scheduled on January 22, these upazila elections would be the first since 1990 and would be an important step towards decentralization. Given the political parties, reluctance to see the power of parliamentary members diminished, however, there is a real risk that the next government will seek to marginalize the newly elected upazila officials. The USG should help strengthen local governance in Bangladesh, including at the county level. Decentralization by un-elected governments ========================================= ¶2. (SBU) Then-President Hossain Muhammad Ershad created the upazila system and held the first set of elections in May ¶1985. Along with the elected members of the upazila, the government appointed members of the civil service to run local administration. Since the end of the Ershad regime in 1990, however, no elections to the upazila councils have taken place. Instead, civil servants have carried out upazila government functions, with elected officials responsible for the lowest level of government ) municipalities in urban areas and Union Councils (combining 8-10 villages) in rural areas. The current Caretaker Government introduced the Upazila Parishad Ordinance in 2008 which re-instated the post of upazila chairman and called for two phase elections, initially scheduled for just six and 10 days after parliamentary polls. The ordinance also created two vice-chairmen posts, with one specifically reserved for women. ¶3. (SBU) Like other local government tiers, elections are supposed to take place on a non-partisan basis. In many constituencies there is more than one candidate for each party. Despite this, there is room for the parties to influence the process, particularly once national parliamentary elections conclude. During the August 2007 municipal elections, the political parties provided support to candidates, even though they nominally ran as independents. Parties supportive in principle...for the moment ============================================= === ¶4. (C) Bowing to pressure from the country,s two leading parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Awami League (AL),the EC agreed to hold the upazila polls in one phase 24 days after the parliamentary election. Both parties had opposed the idea of holding upazila elections so close to the date of the parliamentary polls. The parties alleged that the caretaker government and army were building up the upazila system to create an alternate center of power. On a practical level, aspirants for parliamentary seats did not want to alienate potential supporters or compete for the voters, attention against candidates for upazila seats. ¶5. (C) Even though the AL and BNP paid lip service to decentralization and strengthening local government in their 2008 election manifestoes (septel),their commitment is questionable. Foreign and domestic observers have suggested a number of different scenarios following the national elections. The next parliament could revisit the idea of the upazila parishads and postpone the vote once again. Some BNP activists have called for an indefinite postponement of upazila elections, in theory to allow the incoming Parliament to look more broadly at decentralization issues. Will the EC bow to pressure? ============================ ¶6. (C) Ultimately the timing of the elections will depend largely on the EC,s willingness to stick to the timetable. Most local observers have been pleased with the EC,s independence. The head of Janipop, an elections related NGO, pointed out that the present date had been fixed with the consent of the two leading parties after deliberations. Attempts to postpone local elections further would likely result in protests from grassroots politicians now swept up in election fervor. DHAKA 00001310 002.2 OF 002 The power of the purse ====================== ¶7. (C) Even if upazila elections took place as planned, the newly elected leaders would remain vulnerable to efforts by the parliament to restrict their powers. The Upazila ordinance does not clearly identify which areas fall under the jurisdiction of the county government and which fall under the national government. In fact, even the Upazila Ordinance will need to be ratified by the new parliament within thirty days of its taking office. Under the most optimistic scenario, the upazilas will have a wide scope for action, minimal interference from the national government and the ability to raise their own revenue, further taming the existing highly centralized political landscape. Comment ======= ¶8. (C) The upazila elections are an important step on the path towards greater decentralization in Bangladesh. Though many details remain unresolved, the initiative represents a positive development along the path back to democracy. As we seek to strengthen Bangladeshi democracy, the USG should consider further funds for projects to strengthen local governance including at the county level. MORIARTY