BANGLADESH BEFORE THE ELECTIONS: ALL QUIET ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001286 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2018 TAGS: BG ECON KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI SUBJECT: BANGLADESH BEFORE THE ELECTIONS: ALL QUIET ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FRONTS REF: A. DHAKA 01200 ¶B. DHAKA 01243 DHAKA 00001286 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty; reason 1.4 (b)&(d) Summary ======= ¶1. (C) Preparations for December 29 parliamentary elections are just beginning to get underway in Barisal, Gazipur, and the northern portions of the Chittagong division in Bangladesh. Though formal campaigning has yet to begin, journalists, NGOs, local political leaders and international observers in these regions of central and southern Bangladesh report few hitches thus far in the run up to national polls. A few, however, expressed fear that there could be a resurgence of anti-minority post-election violence seen in parts of Bangladesh in 2001. Up to 80 million Bangladeshis will go to the polls nationwide in the first parliamentary elections since 2001. Campaigning Yet to Start ======================== ¶2. (SBU) During pre-election visits to Barisal, Gazipur, and the Northern Chittagong districts of Comilla, Feni, and Noakahli from December 3-5, the streets were buzzing with life, but most political activity was taking place behind closed doors. Observers conceded that even though electoral laws permitted campaigning to start three weeks before the December 29 polls, they did not expect serious campaigning to begin before December 12, the day after the deadline for candidate nominations. That said, party workers are meeting informally to discuss preparations for the coming weeks. Since December 3, candidates and party workers have closely followed the &scrutiny8 process, whereby election officials reviewed candidate nomination papers. The Election Commission initially rejected a total of 557 nominations countrywide, many because of corruption convictions, defaults on loans and other disqualifying criteria. A total of 67 nominations have been successfully appealed, with the Election Commission scheduled to make decisions on the remaining 321 appeals in the coming days. ¶3. (SBU) During December 3-5 travel to Barisal, northern Chittagong and Gazipur, our local contacts stressed it was too early gauge the public mood since the Election Commission was still finalizing candidate nominations. The leading political parties were optimistic about their chances to prevail in elections, though no one would offer a prediction on their performance. Most independent observers did not expect drastic shifts in the region's voting patterns for the national parliamentary elections. (Note: Both Barisal and the Northern Chittagong divisions are strongholds of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),while Gazipur traditionally votes Awami League (AL). The Awami League won the mayoral post in the August 4, 2008 municipal elections however. End note.) Some races may be tight because of redistricting, while others could be swept by former Members of Parliament who have in the past claimed credit for building roads or providing food during tough economic times. Voters frequently spoke about the need for more roads in rural areas and the high price of commodities. Those candidates who have already tackled some of these issues would appear to have a clear advantage over those new to the district. ¶4. (SBU) Nearly all anticipated that &bread and butter8 issues like the price of goods, law and order, and corruption would be foremost on the voters' minds, which tracks with surveys conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) and others. Notably, local contacts often asserted that the anti-corruption efforts of the Caretaker Government could influence voter decisions, as more attention had been drawn to the nefarious activities of some candidates. At the same time, however, these contacts argued that Caretaker Government had largely been a failure, particularly with its anti-corruption efforts, making the entire country eager for elections. Possible Setbacks for the Awami League? ======================================= ¶5. (SBU) In both Gazipur and Comilla, the Awami League (AL) may have some hurdles to overcome. In two constituencies in DHAKA 00001286 002.2 OF 002 these districts, AL President Sheikh Hasina replaced reformist candidates with those loyal to her. While this decision angered AL supporters in these districts, the majority of AL supporters with whom we spoke in both Gazipur and Comilla said they would still vote for the AL candidate, whoever the person might be. At the same time, the vast majority of people said they believed Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, chairperson of the BNP, should remain at the helm of their parties and hold public office. ¶6. (SBU) Another issue that may harm the AL was its former alliance with the Jatiya Party (JP). The JP, led by former President Ershad, is a small, but regionally prominent party that has allied with the AL in the past. In the end, an alliance could prove counterproductive for the AL, as it simply causes confusion in some constituencies over which candidate is running. While there are significantly fewer Jatiya supporters than AL or BNP voters, it is still possible for Jatiya votes to sway the results in some constituencies. BNP Reformists Sidelined ======================== ¶7. (C) The BNP has also nominated candidates perceived to be loyal to Begum Zia, rejecting other candidates with strong support in their constituencies. In Barisal division in southern Bangladesh seven BNP incumbents lost nominations in favor of new candidates, presumably because the incumbents were part of a "reformist" wing of the BNP that attempted to move the BNP away from Begum Zia after her arrest and imprisonment on corruption charges in 2007. Nationwide, nearly 38 potential BNP candidates are in the position of being replaced by more loyal BNP'ers. Prominent reformer Zahir Uddin Swappon, a BNP candidate in Barisal 1 expressed disappointment he was not the party candidate but vowed to run as an independent if the leadership continued with plans to run another BNP candidate against him. Swappon said he believed he could win as an independent due to the BNP challenger's relative lack of experience. Though he wouldn't rule out switching to archrival AL, Swappon said it was unlikely to happen given his support base among BNP activists. Communal Tensions Could Play a Role =================================== ¶8. (C) Though no problems have surfaced thus far, a few observers said they feared a repeat of the anti-Hindu violence and harassment experienced in several districts in Barisal and throughout Bangladesh in areas with sizable Hindu populations during the 2001 elections. Awami League activists at the national and local levels have alleged that this violence affected the turnout of minority voters and ultimately resulted in a landslide victory for the BNP in ¶2001. A few thousand Hindus also allegedly fled to India during this time. Comment ======= ¶9. (SBU) Over the coming weeks Embassy teams will travel throughout Bangladesh to assess preparations for the December 29 elections. This visit provides a snapshot of the situation as parties are at the starting gates, before nominations and alliances have been finalized. The campaign begins in earnest on December 12. PASI