GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES BANGLADESH'S STATE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001284 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/PB E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM BG SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES BANGLADESH'S STATE OF EMERGENCY TO BE LIFTED DECEMBER 17 AS PARTIES BEGIN CAMPAIGNS REF: DHAKA 1243 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Geeta Pasi. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary ======== ¶1. (C) In a hastily arranged press conference late December 10, Bangladesh's Caretaker Government announced that it would lift the country's State of Emergency on December 17. The CTG also announced plans to remove restrictions on political campaigning December 12 in preparation for parliamentary elections scheduled for December 29. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led Four Party Alliance, which had threatened to withdraw from elections if the Emergency was not lifted, welcomed the announcement and claimed credit for pressuring the CTG to end nearly two years of emergency rule. While the Awami League also hailed the CTG's announcement, its leaders remained focused on finalizing their electoral alliance with the Jatiya Party. As the deadline for withdrawal of nominations approached December 11, Awami League and Jatiya Party negotiators were able to hammer out an agreement to keep their "Grand Alliance" intact. The flurry of activity during the normally quiet Eid holidays is an indication that all sides are moving into hyper-drive with less than three weeks remaining before the elections. CTG Finally Announces Lifting of Emergency ========================================== ¶2. (C) After rushing back to Dhaka in the early afternoon, Caretaker Government (CTG) Adviser Hossain Zillur Rahman, flanked by two of his fellow negotiators, announced that the CTG would lift Bangladesh's State of Emergency on December ¶17. The Adviser also announced the removal of other restrictions on campaigning effective December 12. The announcement came on the eve of the December 11 deadline for withdrawal of nominations for Bangladesh's December 29 parliamentary elections. The Advisers' announcement came during the second day of the normally quiet Eid holidays, and was prompted by growing speculation that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies were planning to announce their withdrawal from the election. Two days earlier, the BNP Secretary General had given the CTG 48 hours to respond to their demand and announce a firm date for withdrawing the State of Emergency imposed on January 11, ¶2007. ;BNP Claims Victory ================== ¶3. (C) BNP spokespersons were quick to claim victory following the CTG's announcement. The BNP-led Four Party Alliance delayed its scheduled December 10 meeting by three hours to allow time for the Advisers to hold their press conference. In their statements, BNP officials noted that the lifting of the emergency cleared the way for the December 29 elections. Party leaders told us they had concluded negotiations with alliance members on seat sharing arrangements and were looking forward to the beginning of the campaign. BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia plans to launch her campaign with a visit to Sylhet December 12 and the party will publish its manifesto on the 13th. BNP officials tell us they expect Zia to spend much of the remaining three weeks of the campaign on the road, drumming up support for alliance candidates. Awami League and Jatiya Salvage Grand Alliance ============================================= = ¶4. (C) While Awami League leaders also publicly welcomed the CTG's decision to lift the emergency, the mood among party supporters was much more subdued. Earlier December 10, Jatiya Party Chairperson, former President Hussain Muhammad Ershad had angrily announced that his party would pull out of the AL-led "Grand Alliance" after inconclusive talks with AL President Sheikh Hasina. Other Jatiya Party leaders accused the AL of betrayal and said that they would contest the elections on their own. At the same time, many within both parties speculated that there would be a last minute attempt to patch over the differences prior to the deadline for withdrawal of nominations. As the deadline approached late December 11 afternoon, the two sides indeed were able to reach a deal that kept their alliance intact. ¶5. (C) Negotiations between the JP and AL had hung up over disagreements on the number of seats allocated to Ershad's DHAKA 00001284 002 OF 002 party. In all, the two sides disagreed on fewer than ten seats. More than anything, Ershad had sought a pledge from Hasina that he would be allowed to return to the Presidency following a Grand Alliance victory. Many in the AL had been reluctant to give in to Ershad's demands, arguing that the AL stood a better chance of winning the seats and also rejecting the idea of rewarding the former military dictator by allowing him to return in triumph to the Presidential Palace. Leaving others to conclude negotiations with the Jatiya Party, Hasina launched her campaign with a visit to Sufi religious shrines in Sylhet December 11. Comment ======= ¶6. (C) The CTG's announcement of its plans to lift the State of Emergency was welcome news and further indication of the government's commitment to seeing elections take place on schedule. With negotiations on alliance seat sharing finalized, the parties finally are focused on campaigning. The next three weeks promise to be frantic as candidates adjust to a much abbreviated campaign period. The BNP believes it has the momentum going into the campaign, but most observers still see the Awami League as the favorite. For his part, Ershad relishes the role of kingmaker and will remain a factor through the elections and any post-December 29 negotiations to form a government. With the campaign underway, our effort will shift to reporting from outside Dhaka as we attempt to identify trends that will affect the election results. MORIARTY