GOVERNMENT SETS NEW ELECTION DATE AND PARTIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001218

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PINS PREL PHUM BG
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT SETS NEW ELECTION DATE AND PARTIES
APPEAR ON BOARD

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Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Caretaker Government acceded to the Bangladesh
Nationalist Party (BNP) demand to delay Parliamentary
elections and moved the date from December 18 to December 29.
Initial BNP reaction was positive, even though the Government
did not fully meet three other party preconditions for
participating in the election. Awami League leaders, who did
not favor a delay because they believed their party was in a
strong position to win the vote, griped publicly about the
change. In private, however, they indicated the party would
not boycott. While we expect political leaders to raise
continuous demands throughout the campaign, the decision to
delay the vote could well lead to credible elections
involving all parties. Throughout the recent intense
political jockeying, all sides have sought reassurances from
the USG that it continues to advocate free and fair elections
this year.

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SAVING THE ELECTIONS BY POSTPONING THEM
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2. (U) The Election Commission announced November 23 that
Parliamentary elections would be delayed 11 days to December

29. The decision came after the BNP demanded elections
scheduled for December 18 be delayed until at least December
28 to provide the party more time to get ready. The party had
cited difficulties in preparing for elections while its
leader, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, languished in jail
on corruption charges. (Note: She was released in September.
End note) Intraparty factional rivalries between Zia
loyalists and reformers also left the BNP in disarray. The
Commission also announced upazilla (county) elections would
be held January 22, generally in line with the BNP demand
that local elections follow the Parliamentary vote by a month.


3. (SBU) The Caretaker Government did not meet two other BNP
demands for participating in the elections: scrapping
Election Commission powers to unilaterally disqualify
candidates and immediately lifting the State of Emergency.
Two prominent Zia advisers, however, told PolEcon Counselor
the Commission's powers already appeared sufficiently watered
down to put the issue on the back burner. They said the State
of Emergency could be lifted as late as December 12, when
official campaigning starts. The advisers cited the release
from jail on bail of senior BNP leader Khandaker Mosharraf
Hossain as contributing to the party's sense of rejuvenation
and momentum.


4. (SBU) Sheikh Hasina and other Awami League leaders argued
against changing the election date, saying the schedule
should not be held hostage to BNP whims. Before the
Commission announcement, however, Awami League spokesman Syed
Ashraf Islam told POLOFF the party would reluctantly agree to
any date in December. After the announcement, Hasina
confidant Tarique Ahmed Siddique said she had agreed to
December 29 even though the party would publicly decry the
decision to delay the vote. Siddique noted several senior
Awami League officals did not want the BNP to participate in
elections and were urging Hasina not to accept a delay in the
timetable. As of 1600 November 24 local time, the Awami
League had neither accepted nor rejected the new timetable.

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UP NEXT: WHO WILL THE PARTIES NOMINATE?
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5. (SBU) The parties have until November 30 to nominate
candidates for Parliament. In the next few days, the two
major parties will meet with their alliance partners to divvy
up seats for their respective slates of candidates. Most
Awami League candidates already have filed nominating papers,
but spokesman Ashraf said changes were still possible in the
party line-up. In particular, there was a move afoot to
convince Hasina to approve nominations of several
reform-minded mid-level party officials she earlier passed
over, apparently for being insufficiently loyal to her. The
BNP had yet to announce who it would nominate, but Zia
adviser Shafik Rehman said all but about a dozen tickets had

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been decided. The big question was how many party reformists
who broke with Zia while she was in jail would receive
nominations.


6. (C) The finalized nomination lists will be the first
indication whether either party is serious about tackling
Bangladesh's endemic political corruption. Scores of leaders
from both parties -- including Zia and Hasina -- were jailed
during the State of Emergency on graft charges. Some were
convicted but the courts released many others on bail and are
eligible to run for Parliament, including the two former
prime ministers. Although the BNP dropped its demand that
convicted party leaders be allowed to run for office while
their sentences were on appeal, we expect both parties to
nominate many people either charged with graft or widely
perceived to be corrupt. Professor Ataur Rahman, one of
Bangladesh's leading political scientists, told POLOFF he saw
no evidence the nation's money- and violence-fueled politics
had changed despite the anti-corruption reform efforts of the
Caretaker Government in the nearly two years since it took
power.

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COMMENT: PROGRESS ON ELECTIONS, DON'T FORGET REFORMS
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7. (C) Postponing the Parliamentary elections until December
29 makes a boycott of the polls by the BNP much less likely.
Still, the high-risk game of political chicken in which the
parties jeopardize the elections to eke out maximum tactical
benefits is likely to continue. The Embassy will strongly
discourage such brinkmanship and looks forward to the visit
of Senators McCain, Lieberman and Graham in early December as
an opportunity to emphasize the importance of political
compromise to a successful democracy. The Embassy also will
encourage both parties to fulfill their promises to tackle
graft and do away with "winner-take-all" politics once the
newly elected Parliament is seated. A return to the status
quo ante of endemic political graft and violence would
threaten stability, making Bangladesh more attractive as a
haven for both domestic and international terrorists.
Although both Zia and Hasina have confided to us they are
committed to fighting extremism, it is not yet clear they
understand that good governance is an indispensible component
of that battle.
Moriarty