SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001159 SIPDIS FOR DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE JAMES CLAD, FROM THE AMBASSADOR E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER KREL BG SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE JAMES CLAD REF: A. DHAKA 1127 ¶B. DHAKA 1138 ¶C. DHAKA 1139 Classified By: Amb. James F. Moriarty. Reasonsd 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Your visit to Bangladesh comes in the twilight of the Caretaker Government's (CTG) two-year term, amid preparations for national Parliamentary elections in December. The return to democracy remains fraught with uncertainties, including whether one of the country's two major political parties -- the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) -- will participate in the elections. Also unclear is whether the Caretaker Government's reforms to rid government of endemic corruption and violence will survive under a newly elected Parliament. Failure to build on those reforms could herald a return to the status quo ante and the violent "winner take all" political culture of Bangladesh. ¶2. (S/NF) USG activities in Bangladesh are based on three pillars: democratization, development and denial of space to terrorists. We strongly support the Caretaker Government's efforts to ensure free, fair and credible elections. The U.S. funds a comprehensive, 150 million USD development program that includes aid for food, health, education, economic growth and governance. We also cooperate closely with authorities here to combat terrorism and prevent Bangladesh from becoming a haven for terrorists. The U.S. Government will soon begin human rights training for the Rapid Action Battalion, an elite law enforcement agency that has taken the lead in countering terrorism, with the goal of eventually broadening the engagement to include CT training. The Embassy also recently recommended U.S. Government support for the creation of a Bangladesh Navy Special Operations unit, similar to US SEAL and Special Boat units. (Reftel C) -------------- DEMOCRACY -------------- ¶3. (U) The Caretaker Government (CTG) came to power in January 2007, the day after a State of Emergency was declared to quell political violence in the run-up to Parliamentary elections. With the strong support of the military, the CTG canceled the elections and began cracking down on endemic political corruption and violence. The crackdown initially won broad public support, but frustration with the Caretaker Government spilled onto the streets in late August 2007, when a dispute at Dhaka University between students and soldiers became a rallying point for Bangladeshis disaffected by inflation, other economic woes, and restrictions on political activity. The Government stopped the protests by imposing a curfew. ¶4. (U) In September 2008, the Caretaker Government set December 18 as the date for the delayed Parliamentary elections. The mechanics of holding elections are largely on track. A reconstituted Election Commission compiled a new, credible voter list. The list was put to the test in city and municipal elections on August 4; turnout for the city polls ranged from 75 percent to 93 percent. The Awami League stormed to victory, winning all four major mayoral slots up for grabs. Election observers reported some generally minor problems during the vote but none of the violence that marred past polls. The BNP boycotted the elections, claiming no vote should be held under a State of Emergency, a position it still maintains in the run-up to the Parliamentary elections scheduled for December 18. ¶5. (SBU) The continuing negotiations over the return to democracy involve three key players: the Caretaker Government, the military and the two main parties, which are again under the direct leadership of former prime ministers Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League and Khaleda Zia of the BNP. (Note: Jailed on a multitude of corruption charges in 2007, Zia was released on bail in September; Hasina was out of the country on medical parole from June until November 6, when she made a triumphant return to Dhaka. End note.) The Awami DHAKA 00001159 002 OF 003 League believes it is in a strong position to win the Parliamentary elections and opposes any delay of the vote. The BNP is torn about whether to participate, claiming to be at a disadvantage because many of its top politicians have been convicted on graft charges and cannot run. Whether Zia ultimately decides to participate in the elections will go a long way in determining whether Bangladesh can make a peaceful return to democracy. ¶6. (S/NF) The Election Commission recently rejected an attempt by the newly formed Islamic Democratic Party (IDP) to register for the December elections (Reftel B). The party was formed earlier this year by senior members of Harakat ul-Jihad-Islami-Bangladesh (HUJI-B),which is designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the U.S. Government. The rejection came after Post relayed to a number of senior Bangladeshi government and military officials strong USG opposition to the creation of the party. The military's Directorate General Forces Intelligence drove the creation of the party in hopes of bringing the HUJI-B above ground. -------------- DEVELOPMENT -------------- ¶7. (U) In the midst of the nation's political uncertainty, Bangladeshis are coping with the aftermath of natural disasters and spiraling inflation. Cyclone Sidr blasted through southwestern Bangladesh in November 2007, killing thousands of people, destroying the homes and livelihoods of millions, and leaving 2.3 billion USD of damage to infrastructure. As part of an inter-agency effort, the U.S. military played a crucial role in relief efforts by airlifting vitally needed water, food and emergency supplies to Bangladeshis in remote areas. However, the Government of Bangladesh and other international donors have not sustained the strong levels of assistance provided in Sidr's immediate aftermath, and millions of victims remain in need of aid to rebuild their lives. The additional $75 million for cyclone victims approved by the U.S. Congress has thus come at a most opportune time. On top of natural disasters, inflation -- particularly of food prices -- remains dangerously high for Bangladesh's desperately poor population, 86 percent of whom subsist on less than $2 a day. -------------- DENIAL OF SPACE TO TERRORISTS -------------- ¶8. (C) Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority nation with porous borders -- both land and maritime -- that make it an attractive transit point and safe-haven for terrorists. Several USG studies this year have underlined just how poorly the borders are policed, and the Embassy is working on a multipronged approach with other Western Embassies to help Bangladesh improve its border security. The USG funds many programs in Bangladesh to counter terrorism, including a wide range of training under the Anti-Terrorist Assistance program coordinated by the State Department. USAID and Public Affairs Section programs also address root causes of extremism through outreach to leaders of influence (including religious figures) and to madrasas. ¶9. (C) Human rights concerns have in the past prevented the USG from providing training to the paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB). The RAB's record generally has improved under the Caretaker Government, and a USG interagency group recently agreed to allow training to help RAB further improve its human rights. A team of two Department of Defense staff judge advocates and a New Delhi-based Federal Bureau of Investigation agent will be in Dhaka this month to come up with a training blueprint to improve the RAB's transparency and accountability when dealing with allegations of gross human rights violations. Should human rights training bring meaningful improvement, subsequent USG engagement with RAB may expand to include counterterrorism training. ¶10. (S/NF) Bangladesh arrested several hundred alleged members of Jamaatul Mujahedin Bangladesh (JMB),the banned Islamic extremist group responsible for a wave of bombings and suicide attacks in late 2005, and recovered bomb-making materials and weapons from their hideouts. Those arrests, DHAKA 00001159 003 OF 003 along with the execution in March 2007 of six senior JMB leaders, represented a clear blow to the organization. More recently, however, JMB reportedly has increased recruitment efforts. Moreover, the GOB has taken relatively little action against Bangladeshi groups with ties to transnational, Pakistan-based terrorist organizations. Concerns of possible violence by extremist organizations in the run-up to elections remain. ¶11. (S/NF) To counter the transnational terrorist threat, Embassy Dhaka has recommended USG support for the creation of a Bangladesh Navy Special Operations unit, similar to US SEAL and Special Boat units. The Government of Bangladesh intends this unit to be a counterterrorism force that will address critical gaps in Bangladesh's maritime security capability. Transnational violent extremist organizations (such as Interagency Intelligence Committee on Terrorism (IICT) priority one Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT) and IICT priority three Hizbul Mujhadin (HM)),transnational crime, drugs and human trafficking are currently exploiting these gaps to facilitate operations throughout South Asia. USG support for the creation of this new force is critical to denying space to terrorists. Additionally, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba is actively developing a maritime capability in order to infiltrate India; due to increases in land and air security within India, Bangladesh is a viable maritime launching point for these infiltration efforts. -------------- YOUR VISIT -------------- ¶12. (S/NF) Your visit to Bangladesh comes at a critical juncture in this contry's young history. Your visit will highlight the importance the USG places on bilateral relations as well as on the Bangladesh military remaining a professional force that serves as a role model for Bangladeshi society. Your meeting with Chief of Army Staff General Moeen Uddin Ahmed will provide an opportunity to reinforce defense cooperation and strong USG opposition to the IDP. You can also deliver the message opposing the IDP in your meeting with the DGFI military intelligence leaders. Your meeting with naval leadership will focus on maritime security issues such as cooperation on creating a naval Special Operations force; with RAB leadership will discuss the way forward with engagement; and with Bangladesh Rifles officials will help you gain insight into border security problems. Moriarty