CONFIDENT AND RELAXED, SHEIKH HASINA LOOKS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001158 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/PB E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PHUM KDEM BG SUBJECT: CONFIDENT AND RELAXED, SHEIKH HASINA LOOKS TO ELECTIONS AND PREPARES TO GOVERN REF: DHAKA 1155 DHAKA 00001158 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary ======== ¶1. (C) Former Awami League Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has wasted little time in reasserting control over her party after her return to Bangladesh following a five month absence. Hasina appeared confident that her party would win the December 18 elections and seemed to have begun preparing for a second term as Prime Minister. Hasina outlined her strategy for winning elections and previewed some of her plans for governing during a November 7 meeting with the Ambassador, her first with a foreign diplomat since returning to Bangladesh. Hasina claimed to have learned from the Awami League's defeat in the 2001 elections. She expressed concern about extremism and the possibility of violence before or after elections, and agreed with the need to ensure the BNP participated in the political process. Awami League Prepares for Elections =================================== ¶2. (C) Just a day after returning to Bangladesh following a five month absence, former Prime Minister and Awami League President Sheikh Hasina met with the Ambassador at her residence. Acting Secretary General Syed Ashraful Islam, Press Secretary Abul Kalam Azad, Private Secretary Dr. Hasan Mahmud, Women,s Affairs Secretary Dipu Moni, former MP Tanjim Ahmed Sohel Taj, and Security Adviser Major General (ret'd) Tarique Ahmed Siddique accompanied Hasina, while P/E Counselor (notetaker) accompanied the Ambassador. This was Hasina,s first meeting with a foreign diplomat since her return and took place at her request. (Note: Of interest, the Saudi Ambassador was the second envoy to see Hasina, meeting with her on November 8.) Following a 30 minute larger group meeting, the Ambassador and Hasina met one-on-one for 45 minutes. ¶3. (C) Hasina first thanked the Ambassador for "everything you have done," likely a reference to her belief that the USG played a role in securing her permission to travel abroad in June. Hasina told the Ambassador she had returned to Bangladesh to oversee the many tasks required to prepare the Awami League for elections. She complained that the authorities had seized her residence at the time of her arrest in May 2007, and Hasina told the Ambassador she was still trying to ascertain whether any of her papers had been taken. The authorities had also seized her computer, which contained all her files on internal party matters, she confided. Smiling, Hasina said she did not yet know if the authorities had located all of her "secret hiding places" in her residence. Learning The Lessons From 2001 Election Defeat ============================================= = ¶4. (C) Hasina told the Ambassador she accepted responsibility for the Awami League's dismal performance in the 2001 elections. Immediately after that election, Hasina had begun a series of meetings with grass roots party activists to try to determine why the party had fared so poorly in the last elections. Under her direction, a group within the party had collected information and analyzed the results in each constituency. The group had recommended revamping the nomination process by asking the local party committees to nominate parliamentary candidates to ensure they had local support. Party committees were meeting and would submit lists of possible candidates prior to November 9. Hasina highlighted the Awami League's inclusive nature and promised the party would give nominations to members of all of Bangladesh's ethnic and religious minority groups. For example, she said that one of the party's candidates from Mymensingh District would be a Christian from the Garo ethnic group. Central Working Committee Gives Stamp of Approval ============================================= ==== ¶5. (C) Hasina explained that the AL central working committee would meet later that day to finalize the procedures for nominating candidates. (Note: We learned later in the day that the Central Working Committee had finalized those procedures. In addition, Hasina also used the occasion to DHAKA 00001158 002.2 OF 003 tell party officials she was aware of all that had taken place during her absence. Referring to those who had been disloyal, Hasina noted that the party was "her family" and that she would forgive those who had acted improperly but added that she would not forget what they had done. In one significant decision, Hasina agreed Abdul Jalil would resume his role as party Secretary General, while Syed Ashraful Islam would become party spokesman.) ¶6. (C) Hasina told the Ambassador the party would choose 300 parliamentary candidates but later would cede some of those seats to the AL's alliance partners. She said the alliance partners had unreasonable demands and predicted that ultimately no more than 60 ) 70 seats would be given to the partners. Even former President Ershad's Jatiya Party would not win more than 14 seats, Hasina speculated. She would insist that at least 50 percent of the seats in each district would go to Awami League candidates, since the party did not want to cede any area in total to the alliance partners. Elections on Schedule? ====================== ¶7. (C) Hasina asked the Ambassador if he thought elections would take place on schedule on December 18. The Ambassador replied he was confident they would, but acknowledged this was not yet 100 percent certain. Hasina predicted people would be frustrated if elections were not held on schedule. The Ambassador pledged that the USG would do all in its power to see elections take place on schedule. Hasina and Ashraf asked specifically if Chief of Army Staff General Moeen Uddin Ahmed was in favor of elections. The Ambassador responded that Moeen and the Caretaker Advisers appeared fully committed to holding the elections on time. Hasina agreed, noting that the election schedule had been announced only after Moeen returned from his visit to Korea. (Note: On November 9 the Election Commission extended the deadline for submitting nominations by one week, but insisted elections would take place as planned on December 18.) What About BNP? =============== ¶8. (C) Hasina asked whether the Bangladesh Nationalist Party would participate in the elections. The Ambassador said he thought that ultimately the BNP would decide to participate. He observed that the BNP appeared uncertain about its electoral prospects and was trying to get the best possible deal from the government. Hasina agreed, saying that the BNP would face serious difficulties if it decided to boycott the elections. She predicted that the BNP's alliance partner (the Jamaat Islami) would break ranks and participate in the polls if the BNP boycotted. Hasina said that others in the party would also defy a boycott and join with other smaller parties, leaving Zia "standing alone." Hasina commented that Zia ran the risk of losing her party, the BNP. The Ambassador said the Awami League could play a useful role in convincing the BNP to participate, by assuring a significant role for the opposition in future parliaments. Hasina agreed, saying the AL would work across the aisle with the BNP. The AL had done this when they were in power from 1996 -2001 and would do so again. Concern about Burma Dispute =========================== ¶9. (C) During their one on one meeting, Hasina expressed concern about the ongoing dispute between Bangladesh and Burma. Bangladesh had pursued good relations with all its neighbors during the AL's time in office, Hasina claimed. The Ambassador said that the current government seemed to be taking the right steps to defuse the crisis. Noting the U.S. did not have much influence with Burma, the Ambassador said that the next round of talks between the two countries in November would be important. Hasina agreed but worried that the situation could spin out of control. Fate of Ordinances ================== ¶10. (C) Hasina confided that the next parliament would face a Herculean task to review the 87 ordinances approved during the Caretaker Government period within the 30 day period stipulated in the constitution. She predicted that the parliament would have to consider these in clusters, perhaps farming them out to the different committees, but she did not DHAKA 00001158 003.2 OF 003 raise any substantive objections to any of the ordinances. Concern about DGFI and Extremists ================================= ¶11. (C) Turning to her meeting with A/S Boucher, Hasina expressed concern about the role being played by Major General A.T.M. Amin, formerly the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence's counter terrorism bureau. Hasina called Amin "an Islamic fanatic out of step with the traditional tolerant Bengali culture." Based on his thought patterns, speech, and demeanor Hasina was convinced Amin was a hard-core islamist. She described him as dangerous, particularly since he wanted to be the head of DGFI one day. ¶12. (C) Hasina also repeated her concerns about the Jamaat Islami's ties to terrorist groups. She asked that the USG intercede with the Saudi Government to rein in Jamaat. Hasina accused the Jamaat of having ties with extremist groups and cautioned the Ambassador not to believe all that the Jamaat said to us. Hasina claimed to be very worried about pre and post election violence, including possible attacks and assassination attempts by the extremists. The Ambassador suggested that Hasina meet directly with the Saudi Ambassador to Dhaka to express concern about the Jamaat. She said there were vested quarters who wanted to interfere with elections. The Ambassador also promised we would remain alert to any threats. We wanted to work closely with the future government on counter terrorism issues. Priorities: Food and Energy =========================== ¶13. (C) Hasina's priorities upon assuming power would be to improve food security and energy supply, she claimed. The latter was something the Ambassador agreed the next government should address. Agreeing, Hasina pledged we would see real progress within 18 months of the Awami League taking power. Hasina asked about the Global Financial Crisis and the prospects for the U.S. economy. In response, the Ambassador explained the steps the USG was taking to address the crisis' underlying causes and jump-start a recovery. Comment ======= ¶14. (C) Throughout the meeting, Hasina appeared relaxed and seemed most at ease with Moni and Sohel, the two youngest members of her entourage, perhaps signaling her intent to sideline the party's old guard. Hasina's main focus was on the national elections, and it was noteworthy that she did not raise any concerns about holding Upazila (county) elections on December 28. With the Awami League moving ahead with election preparations, all eyes have turned to the BNP to determine whether Bangladesh's other main political party will also decide to participate in the process. Moriarty