A TALE OF TWO BEGUMS: SHEIKH HASINA RETURNS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001155 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/PB E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS KDEM PHUM BG SUBJECT: A TALE OF TWO BEGUMS: SHEIKH HASINA RETURNS IN TRIUMPH WHILE KHALEDA ZIA CRIES FOUL REF: STATE 116638 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Geeta Pasi. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY ======== ¶1. (C) Former Prime Minister and Awami League Leader Sheikh Hasina returned to Bangladesh November 6 in triumph, nearly five months after authorities released her from prison in the middle of the night and whisked her out of the country on parole for medical treatment. In remarks to the press upon arrival, Hasina stressed that the December 18 election had to take place on schedule and outlined initiatives her party would take both before and after the polls. Perhaps in an attempt to deflect attention from her arch rival's return, Khaleda Zia struck a more confrontational tone in remarks to the press on the eve of Hasina's arrival. The former Bangladesh Nationalist Party Prime Minister demanded a new election schedule and claimed that the regime had tilted the playing field in favor of the Awami League. Zia and her alliance partners stopped short, however, of announcing a boycott of the December elections, even as they signaled their intent to press forward their demands. For their part, Bangladesh's voters have indicated that they intend to participate in elections. The Ambassador will meet with Sheikh Hasina November 7. Sheikh Hasina Returns in Triumph ================================ ¶2. (C) Ending a five month stay abroad, former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returned to Bangladesh early November 6. Senior Awami League officials greeted Hasina at Zia Airport, and tens of thousands of party supporters lined the road to her residence. The Awami League's Central Working Committee met earlier in the week to plan Sheikh Hasina's reception, and arranged for both party workers and "rent-a-crowds" to swell the number of people assembled to receive her. Bangladesh's Special Security Force (SSF) took charge of security arrangements for Hasina's arrival, and large numbers of police and Rapid Action Battalion members provided an outer ring of protection for Hasina. In recent days, Awami League leaders have shared their concerns about possible threats to Hasina's life. Hasina's arrival and subsequent travel to her residence took place without incident. ¶3. (C) At the airport, Hasina spoke with reporters and emphasized her party's intention to contest the December 18 elections. She warned against any "conspiracies" to delay the polls. Hasina called for an end to political violence and promised to address the concerns of Bangladesh's average citizens, in particular high food prices. In a shift from previous private and public statements, Hasina expressed a willingness to meet with former Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. Hasina brushed aside concerns about a possible BNP election boycott, while announcing her intention to form a "grand alliance" to contest the polls. Hasina also appeared to backtrack from previous pledges to ratify the actions of the Caretaker Government and instead said that the new parliament would decide the fate of reforms instituted since January 2007. (Note: The Ambassador will meet with Sheikh Hasina, at her request, on November 7.) Khaleda Zia Adopts Tougher Line =============================== ¶4. (C) Caught off guard by the Election Commission's November 2 announcement of the election schedule for the December 18 polls, the BNP hastily called an emergency "summit meeting" of its alliance partners on November 5. In comments to the press both before and after the alliance meeting, Khaleda Zia and party Secretary General Khondker Delwar Hossain complained that the Government and Election Commission had not yet created a level playing field. According to BNP insiders, Khaleda's principal concern is the status of the senior leaders who remain in prison and will be barred from contesting the elections. The BNP also remains bitter about the Election Commission's earlier recognition of the party's erstwhile "reformist" faction led by Saifur Rahman. Echoing what she had told the British High Commissioner when they met November 4, Khaleda told reporters that the BNP was eager to participate in elections, but only if they were free, fair, and credible. She warned that the DHAKA 00001155 002 OF 002 party would resist "unacceptable" elections and reiterated her call for the Government to meet the BNP's previously announced seven point demands. ¶5. (C) In recent days, senior BNP and Jamaat Islami leaders have told us that Khaleda seemed to be adopting a harder line tone. Khaleda and Jamaat Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojahid met with CTG Adviser Hossain Zillur Rahman late November 4 following a BNP Standing Committee meeting. Our sources tell us that the BNP leader asked for additional time to finalize the party's nominations for parliament and requested that the election schedule be delayed. Reportedly, a majority of the Standing Committee and the Alliance partners favor participating in the elections, but a vocal minority has been trying to convince Khaleda to boycott the polls. We can expect a continued hard line from Khaleda when she visits Chittagong November 7 to commemorate the anniversary of the 1975 counter-coup that brought her late-husband Ziaur Rahman to power. Bangladeshi Voters Likely to Ignore Boycott Call ============================================= === ¶6. (C) Even as the political parties posture, Bangladeshi voters continue to signal their strong desire to see a return to democracy. A USG poll conducted in September confirmed that the people of Bangladesh eagerly await the chance to vote. Over 95 percent of respondents indicated that they expect elections to be free and fair, while 80 percent said they would defy any call to boycott the polls. Moreover, a third of those polled said they would participate in protests if the elections did not take place on schedule. Comment ======= ¶7. (C) In her recent meeting with SCA A/S Boucher (reftel), Sheikh Hasina acknowledged that she expected her party to win the December elections. Her announcement that the Awami League would participate in elections even if the BNP boycotted will increase the pressure on Khaleda to cut a deal. With only a week remaining until the deadline for submission of nominations, both leaders will have to make some difficult decisions about internal party matters and alliance politics. As a result, we can expect a great deal of jockeying for position in the coming days. Moriarty