TROUBLES AT HOME FOR KIKWETE? SIGNS OF A WEAKENING

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 000737 AF/E PASS TREASURY E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL TZ SUBJECT: TROUBLES AT HOME FOR KIKWETE? SIGNS OF A WEAKENING DOMESTIC POSITION REF: A. A. DAR 708 ¶B. B. DAR 461 ¶C. C. DAR 722 ¶D. D. DAR 555 ¶E. E. DAR 634 Classified By: ambassador mark a. green for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. A number of recent events indicate that President Kikwete faces increased domestic pressure, especially from within his ruling CCM but also from the public. Several times over the past months, the GOT - and CCM - have made missteps or miscalculations that seem to betray a loss of confidence. These stumbles include the ban on a small news outlet for naming alleged plotters against Kikwete's standing for a second term, CCM's by-election loss after a major campaign effort, and the disappointment of Kikwete's address to parliament. At the same time, the chorus of public and private expressions of discontent over his leadership has grown louder. Although a one-term Kikwete presidency remains a remote possibility, it is no longer unthinkable. End summary. ¶2. (C) The most recent signal of trouble within CCM is the GOT's decision to ban Mwanahalisi (ref a). The story that occasioned the ban described a plot by a CCM faction to limit Kikwete to one term. The story rehashed a rumor printed several months earlier, but it was the naming of several alleged conspirators that earned the GOT's ire. The Minister of Information cited the naming of Kikwete's son Ramadhani as one of the reasons for the ban, but we have also heard that it was the appearance of Minister for Home Affairs Lawrence Masha on the list that caused more concern. Masha is a close associate of former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, who left office under a cloud in February but remains a significant power broker and financier for CCM. ¶3. (C) Rather than letting the story pass quietly, the GOT's ban ensured that the content would be picked up by all the major newspapers and other media. Further, the ban had the immediate effect of tarnishing the GOT's image as a proponent of media freedom, which had improved significantly in Kikwete's time in office. The overreaction to the Mwanahalisi story follows another recent example of unnecessary GOT heavy-handedness, the April arrest of several Pemban elders who signed a petition seeking greater autonomy for Pemba (ref b). ¶4. (C) CCM's loss in the Tarime by-election (ref c) now appears like a bad gamble. Rather than conceding one of opposition Chadema's few strongholds, CCM dispatched its top leadership and expended considerable resources in its fruitless effort to regain the seat. One of the explanations we have heard about the results, including from CCM sources, is that CCM itself was divided about selecting a candidate, and in the end chose a man without close ties to the area. The fact that CCM insiders are willing to discuss internal divisions is notable, since traditionally CCM internal workings have been notably opaque. We have also heard the assertion that Kikwete sought to quiet CCM factions dissatisfied with his leadership by delivering a victory in Tarime; if that were indeed the case, the effort backfired. ¶5. (C) Kikwete also gave himself a public black eye with his August address to parliament (ref d). Expectations ran high, stoked by government and CCM, that he would use the platform to announce significant steps to move forward the campaign against corruption. Instead, he equivocated and pushed back the deadline for action. While there may yet be indictments of those involved in corruption scandals, the poor public handling has stirred discontent among the public (and donors). ¶6. (C) Criticism of Kikwete for ignoring Tanzania's problems has become more frequent. In mid-October, prominent Muslim and Christian clerics called on Tanzania to reduce his international travels in order to turn attention to domestic issues. Opposition leaders have offered the same criticism, and Chadema used Kikwete's foreign travel as a talking point in its Tarime campaign. In a different manifestation of discontent, highly unusual for Tanzania, Kikwete's motorcade was stoned by angry villagers during an official visit to the oft-neglected Mbeya region. ¶7. (C) Apart from corruption, the main background to these criticisms is a perception that Tanzania's economic performance is lacking. Inflation has risen into double digits for the first time in Kikwete's presidency. The nationwide Household Budget Survey (not yet released officially) shows that despite a decrease in the percentage of poor Tanzanians, the number living in poverty has increased. ¶8. (C) Taken together, these events indicate growing pressure on Kikwete and reinforce the perception that his capacity to push an agenda has been weakened (see also ref e). Because Tanzania's opposition parties remain relatively weak and (so far) divided, the only serious political challenges Kikwete faces will come from within CCM. The possibility that a faction in CCM could gain enough leverage to force Kikwete not to stand for a second term remains remote, but now bears more serious consideration. GREEN