HOTLY CONTESTED BY-ELECTION IN MAINLAND TANZANIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000635 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TZ SUBJECT: HOTLY CONTESTED BY-ELECTION IN MAINLAND TANZANIA REF: DAR ES SALAAM 492 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. Remote northern Tarime district (bordering Kenya's Nyanza Province and Lake Victoria) will elect a new Member of Parliament October 12. The by-election has attracted national interest, with the contending parties devoting substantial resources to the race. Even two weeks in advance and despite a substantial police presence, tensions have erupted into sporadic violence. Embassy will send an observer team in coordination with other missions. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Tarime district, the northernmost in Mara region, borders Kenya to the north and Lake Victoria to the west and has a population of approximately 500,000: majority ethnic Kurya (Kuria/Bantu) and minority ethnic Luo (Nilotic). The by-election will take place against a background of local violence among Kurya clans. Clashes in August and September, reportedly over long-running land issues and marijuana cultivation, resulted in several deaths and the burning of houses and granaries. The inter-clan violence appears not to have direct political impact, since both candidates, like the former incumbent, have promised to end ethnic-based fighting in the district. ¶3. (SBU) The by-election in Tarime came about due to the death of charismatic opposition MP, Chacha Wangwe, in July 2008, in a car accident (reftel). The circumstances of Wangwe's death remain controversial - there have been various unsubstantiated allegations that the death was not accidental. Roughly two weeks before his death, Wangwe had been suspended from his position as vice chairman of his party, CHADEMA (Democracy and Development Party),after a leadership fight with party Chairman Freeman Mbowe. Wangwe had accused his party publicly of misuse of party resources. (Lurid accusations under such circumstances are the norm.) ¶4. (U) The parties and their candidates: -- CCM (Party of the Revolution) has ruled Tanzania since independence (allowing for a change of name in 1975) and won an overwhelming majority of National Assembly seats (206 of 232 contested) in the 2005 elections. CCM held the Tarime seat from the introduction of multi-party politics in 1992 until 2005. The CCM candidate is Ryoba Kangoye, a Tanzania Revenue Authority official who lives in Dar es Salaam. Kangoye had sought the seat in 2005, but was defeated by CCM's then-incumbent in intra-party competition. -- CHADEMA won 5 seats in the 2005 elections on an anti-corruption and good governance platform. Its candidate is Charles Nyanguru, Chairman of the Tarime District Council, where CHADEMA has a slim majority of seats. -- Other opposition parties decided to align informally behind the CHADEMA candidate, in order to give him a realistic chance of winning against CCM. (NOTE: In addition to his seat in Parliament, Wangwe was a ward councilor. In addition to CCM and CHADEMA, the Civic United Front (CUF) - the largest national opposition party - and smaller parties have fielded candidates to fill that vacancy. END NOTE.) ¶5. (U) Despite CCM's vast parliamentary majority, the party is making a major push to win back the Tarime seat. CCM national leadership, including the party's Vice Chairman and General Secretary, have been campaigning in Tarime. Leaders of CHADEMA have also spent prolonged periods in the district. (NOTE: In February 2008, another by-election took place without significant disruption and with less national attention. However, that election, in Manyara region, saw CCM easily maintain its hold on a seat left vacant by the death of a lesser-known CCM backbencher. END NOTE.) ¶6. (SBU) Tensions appear to be on the increase in Tarime as the election approaches. A police contingent of over 400 officers has taken residence in Tarime town with a mandate to maintain order. The major parties have traded claims that the other is creating disturbances. The CCM Vice Chairman reportedly said he would call on President Kikwete to deploy military forces. CHADEMA has claimed some of its members have been arbitrarily arrested by the police, and has accused the GOT of interfering on CCM's behalf. Police have arrested several people for violence, including for attacks on a CHADEMA campaign van and for throwing rocks at the leader of a small opposition party who asserted publicly that Wangwe's death was not accidental. There have also been arrests, including of a police officer, for attempting to buy or sell voting cards. ¶7. (U) Embassy will field a team to observe election practices in Tarime, in coordination with several EU countries and Canada. In addition, the UK will lead a group of Chiefs of Mission to the DAR ES SAL 00000635 002 OF 002 district a week ahead of the by-election, to carry the message that the international community expects the by-election to be conducted freely and fairly. CDA will join that effort along with a mix of European, Asian and African missions from Community of Democracies countries. The British High Commissioner reports that the National Electoral Commission (NEC) has warmly welcomed the visit of the COMs to Tarime. ¶8. (SBU) Poloff recently called on NEC Director of Elections Rajaab Kiravu. Kiravu said the NEC was prepared for the Tarime by-election on the management side: an updated and validated voter list and balloting materials would be ready in time. However, he criticized the campaigns as "lacking tolerance."