A/S FRAZER DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE, SUDAN, AU ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 000471 SIPDIS DEPT AF/E FOR JLIDDLE, AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK ALSO FOR AF/S ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI AU TZ SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE, SUDAN, AU ISSUES WITH TANZANIAN PRESIDENT KIKWETE Classified By: A/S for African Affairs J. E. Frazer for reasons 1.4 (b,d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On the margins of the Leon H. Sullivan Foundation conference in Arusha, Tanzania on June 3, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazer, discussed with Tanzania's President Jakaya Kikwete about preparations for the June 27 runoff elections in Zimbabwe, the LRA in Uganda, the situation in Abyei, Darfur, and Djibouti. Kikwete expressed his concerns about violence against the Zimbabwe opposition party members and that SADC member state leaders are divided over the question of election monitors. A/S Frazer emphasized that the African Union must step up both with monitors for Zimbabwe and public statements about the runoff. She asked Kikwete to pass a message to President Bashir of Sudan that the situation in Abyei has to be brought under control. End summary. Zimbabwe -------------- ¶2. (C) President Kikwete told A/S Frazer he remained extremely worried about the continuing violence in Zimbabwe despite appeals to President Mugabe from leaders of nearly all SADC member states. Tanzania had given Mugabe a strong message at the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) forum in Rome that the violence must stop. Kikwete scoffed at Mugabe's claim that the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) supporters were the perpetrators of the recent violence: "That is ridiculous; the MDC were arrested in their offices and at a hotel, not in the act of beating people." A/S Frazer noted that Angola's President dos Santos had also promised also to tell Mugabe the violence must stop. ¶3. (C) Kikwete said a SADC meeting chaired by Zambia's President Mwanawasa to discuss election monitors during the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) in late May had ended in near chaos. "It was a very rough meeting; I arrived late and there was a shouting match ongoing between Chairman Mwanawasa and President Mbeki," he said. Kikwete confided that at the gathering, the SADC leaders were unable to agree on when and how election monitors should be deployed to Zimbabwe. A/S Frazer emphasized the need to quickly get a confirmed response on monitors from the SADC secretariat: "Time is running out. If SADC is not going to send monitors, then the African Union (AU) has to send as many monitors as possible; there remains only three weeks until the June 27 elections," she stressed. ZEC is Divided -------------- ¶4. (C) In Kikwete's view, MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai should concentrate on how to maintain the resolve of the opposition and encourage sustainable voter turnout. Kikwete saw some hope in the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). He said although accused of being corrupt, the ZEC did complete the recount in 33 constituencies, and overall, Tsvangirai gained 20,000 votes. However, Kikwete recognizes without full support from election monitors, the Electoral Commission would be too weak. A/S Frazer replied she viewed the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission as divided and not reliable: the Chair is pro-Mugabe, although other members are more independent. ¶5. (C) Kikwete believed that public intimidation is not having the effect ZANU anticipated, despite statements from Mugabe such as soldiers who are not prepared to fight for a Mugabe victory should leave the army now. In his view, Mugabe's heavy-handed maneuvers could backfire. Kikwete thought SADC's Chair, President Mwanawasa, is becoming more effective, speaking out frankly and even being criticized in the Zimbabwe press. His concern was that no one in SADC other than President Mbeki can talk to Mugabe. Kikwete noted Tanzania is being criticized by Mugabe as the "puppet" of the U.S. and the British. "We can smooth that one over, though," he said. "Most importantly we must assure there is protection DAR ES SAL 00000471 002 OF 004 for Tsvangirai." Time Before Runoff is Short -------------- ¶6. (C) A/S Frazer expressed outrage that on June 1, Mugabe's forces had arrested Arthur Mutambara, a Deputy in the MDC. "This move crossed a line. Mugabe is testing our resolve and we must have a strong response," she stressed. A/S Frazer said the U.S. supports the deployment of as many monitors as possible since Mugabe is obviously determined to use every means possible to stay in power. She added that the wife of Mugabe's recent public statement confirmed his intention. Thus, the AU needs to take a public stand and speak out that the runoff elections must be fully monitored to be considered free and fair. ¶7. (C) A/S Frazer was adamant that unless monitors are in place throughout Zimbabwe, including rural areas, there is a high risk someone could be hurt or worse, if not Tsvangirai then Arthur Mutambara. She told Kikwete that we share his concern for Tsvangirai's safety to be assured with VIP protection, as was done in Burundi or Kinshasa when opposition politicians returned home to form new governments. "Mugabe may not agree to such guaranteed protection, but we need to try," she stated. ¶8. (C) She shared with President Kikwete that Mbeki had sent President Bush and the British a ten-page letter riddled with the warning: "You white people should stay out of Zimbabwe's affairs." President Bush did not and will not respond. Instead, the White House released a statement June 2 condemning Zimbabwe's arrest of Arthur Mutambara. A/S Frazer stressed that the U.S. does not see any conditions in Zimbabwe to carry out free and fair elections on June 27: "Time is running out; President dos Santos has told us that Mugabe would not accept a loss." She told Kikwete that we all have to step up our statements and our actions; otherwise the runoff will be fixed and Mugabe will be reelected as President through intimidation and violence. Unity Government not an Option -------------- ¶9. (C) A/S Frazer said a national unity government is extremely difficult, posing too many obstacles: Who could create the conditions for a unity government? Who would take the lead to negotiate for and monitor such a government: SADC, AU? Thus, the U.S does not prefer a unity government option. A/S Frazer stressed that the regional voice must be louder and the AU needs to assert itself. President Mbeki claims he speaks for SADC, continuing to legalistically support Mugabe's position that this election is about liberation. The U.S is convinced that Mbeki is not capable and only trying to legitimize what is going on in Zimbabwe with Mugabe using Mbeki as his shield. ¶10. (C) Kikwete noted the domestic woes facing Mbeki. His own ANC party leadership supports Morgan Tsvangirai's candidacy. In Kikwete's view, Mbeki's facilitation role is completed: Zimbabwe's security laws, electoral laws, and the information law have been amended. Mbeki is only using the "mediation card" to try to have a voice. For example, in Japan, Mbeki told the SADC Chair, President Mwanawasa that the discussion on preparations to monitor the Zimbabwe elections "is not your business," but should be dealt with by SADC's Organ for Politics and Security, currently chaired by Angola, with Tanzania and Swaziland as members. Kikwete lamented that Angola's President dos Santos, who is suffering from cancer, never travels, often is not available, and has thus become a "missing link" since his ministers do not have a real voice. Kikwete noted in August 2008, the Chair of the Organ for Politics and Security will move to the King of Swaziland. ¶11. (C) President Kikwete stated that for all SADC leaders, but Mbeki, "it is extremely difficult to talk to Mugabe." He expressed his concern that the ongoing intimidation will prevent people from going to the polls especially in DAR ES SAL 00000471 003 OF 004 Matabeland, where abusers are targeting areas Mugabe did not perform well in March 2008. He noted that the intimidation could have a backlash, angering the voters and increasing the turnout on election day, despite ZANU's strong-arm tactics. In such a scenario, Morgan Tsvangirai could win in the June 27 round, "but only if non-Zimbabweans observe the counting at the polling stations, along with the party agents, and each person receives a receipt of the results; then all the numbers should add up." ¶12. (C) A/S Frazer reiterated that having as many monitors as possible inside Zimbabwe is the only way to re-assure Zimbabwe citizens that it is safe to go out and vote. In addition, monitors and observers must make strong pronouncements to assure that the GOZ will accept the results. Kikwete emphasized that the role of the U.S. is to continue "to shout" and send strong messages. "The people of Zimbabwe need to express their free will," he said. "Let Mugabe's forces call us 'Agents of Imperialism' or whatever they want; the key is that the opposition have the opportunity to beat them fairly." Sudan: Abyei and Darfur -------------- ¶13. (C) A/S Frazer asked Kikwete to give a message to President Bashir of Sudan that the problem in Abyei must be resolved. She stressed that Bashir has to allow the flow of humanitarian assistance. "We are in discussions, but have only one month to resolve it or the issue automatically goes to mediation," she explained. "Our request is that the Government of Sudan (GOS) also accept a temporary administration for Abyei." She told Kikwete that Southern Sudan is losing confidence, with more talk of secession; it is imperative the situation in Abyei be quickly resolved. ¶14. (C) Kikwete said that he met Bashir in Japan and was expecting him to arrive for the Sullivan Summit the next day, June 4. Kikwete smiled: "Bashir is in a better mood now to speak with us, based on the success in the Comoros." Kikwete added he knows Bashir suspects Libya of supplying the JEM and of Kaddafi wanting to "keep his hand" in the situation. ¶15. (C) Kikwete also stressed the Tanzanian Peoples Defense Force (TPDF) troops are ready to proceed to Darfur: "We are only waiting for the UNAMID peacekeeping operations' deployment." He relayed complaints he had heard from other African states ready to deploy to Darfur that it appears the UN is focused on PKO in Nepal and Thailand and consequently "do not have the resources to supply African PKO units." Uganda: Lord's Resistance Army -------------- ¶16. (C) A/S Frazer told President Kikwete the LRA is regrouping with an upswing in kidnappings, fighting, children and women taken to service the LRA. Also, LRA is making incursions into the Congo, the CAR and Southern Sudan. Kikwete observed that Museveni has infiltrated the LRA. He also believed Kabila is determined to track down the LRA. Kikwete said he had hosted Kabila and Museveni in Dar es Salaam in early May to discuss LRA issues and had understood that the Congolese army and the Ugandan army are still willing to work together. Participants -------------- ¶17. (U) The participants in the June 3, 2008 meeting were: Government of the United States: Jendayi Frazer Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Fatuma Sanneh Assistant to A/S Frazer Mary Johnson U.S. Embassy Dar es Salaam, Notetaker Government of Tanzania: Jakaya Kikwete President of the United DAR ES SAL 00000471 004 OF 004 Republic of Tanzania Bernard Membe Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Amb. Ombeni Sefue Tanzanian Ambassador to the United States Notetakers GREEN