SYRIAN DISSIDENT TAKES DIM VIEW OF ORGANIZED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000842 SIPDIS LONDON FOR WALLER, PARIS FOR TSOU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KPAO KDEM SY SUBJECT: SYRIAN DISSIDENT TAKES DIM VIEW OF ORGANIZED POLITICAL ACTIVISM REF: A. DAMASCUS 00176 ¶B. DAMASCUS 00224 ¶C. DAMASCUS 00373 ¶D. DAMASCUS 00757 ¶E. DAMASCUS 00010 ¶F. 07 DAMASCUS 00389 Classified By: CDA Maura Connelly for reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Civil society activist and economist XXXXXXXXXXXX, released from prison on XXXXXXXXXXXX, met with us recently to share his bleak assessment of pro-democracy and human rights movements in Syria. His appraisals differ from other civil society leaders (refs A-C),especially regarding the Damascus Declaration (DD) movement, in that he sees little cohesion among activists. XXXXXXXXXXXX’s lawyer, XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect),and former detainee XXXXXXXXXXXX attended the meeting. XXXXXXXXXXXX's associates offered insight and sometimes dissenting opinions on the current status of civil society activism. END SUMMARY. -------------- BACKGROUND -------------- ¶2. (U) SARG security forces arrested XXXXXXXXXXXX in 2001 during the Damascus Spring, a fertile period of open political debate in the months following Bashar al-Asad's brief flirtation with a more liberal approach to governance. During this period, XXXXXXXXXXXX was an outspoken critic against SARG corruption and political oppression; he wrote for the banned journal XXXXXXXXXXXX, and actively participated in lectures and discussions with other reform-minded activists. His arrest reportedly resulted from a lecture he gave in XXXXXXXXXXXX in which he called for democracy and transparency. In XXXXXXXXXXXX, the Supreme State Security Court sentenced XXXXXXXXXXXX to 10 years in prison. After enduring more than six years of incarceration, most of it in solitary confinement, XXXXXXXXXXXX was released on XXXXXXXXXXXX, in part due to his health, which had deteriorated precipitously while he was in jail. -------------- XXXXXXXXXXXX's VIEW -------------- ¶3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX met with us on November 19 to discuss the SARG crackdown on political activism that began with the Damascus Spring and crescendoed with the sentencing of 12 members of the Damascus Declaration National Council (DDNC) (ref D). XXXXXXXXXXXX stressed that activism at an individual level would continue despite the current climate, but attempts at coordination would meet little success. "The Damascus Declaration," XXXXXXXXXXXX said, "is finished as a movement. The people will continue working, but won't be able to gather...it is significant that they cannot organize." When asked whether these individuals could, acting alone, effect reform at any level, XXXXXXXXXXXX replied cautiously: "I don't see an open door, but I don't think it is impossible." ¶4. (C) Recent VIP visits by European leaders to Damascus only reinforce the SARG's belief that human rights have no real significance to the West, XXXXXXXXXXXX lamented. "We are afraid the authorities can use the new situation to oppress the opposition. I heard that when Miliband was here, they sentenced (Mustafa) al-Dalati," he said. "Asad (now) thinks the West depends on him, needs him, and will close their eyes to these (civil society reform) problems." For the West, XXXXXXXXXXXX asserted, the "human rights" issue was merely "one of many goods for trade at the table of international relations." ¶5. (C) Like many Syrians we have met, XXXXXXXXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXXXX, and XXXXXXXXXXXXi decried the U.S. sanctions against Syria as hurting the Syrian people more than anyone else. XXXXXXXXXXXX argued the sanctions had become a tool for controlling popular opinion in the SARG's hands. The Asad regime held up the sanctions as an example of how the West opposed the people of Syria, thereby reinforcing the idea that Asad and the Ba'ath Party alone had the Syrian people's interests at heart, XXXXXXXXXXXX said. ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX added that the West demanded reform, but it actually prefered an Asad regime to an alternative government, primarily because the West feared any alternative would be Islamist and/or violent, or simply would not willingly follow the policies of the West. He argued the West was afraid of a fully democratic country anywhere in the Middle East. Both XXXXXXXXXXXX, who spent five years in prison for DAMASCUS 00000842 002 OF 002 his role in the Damascus Spring and is now involved with the Damascus Declaration, and XXXXXXXXXXXX, who is XXXXXXXXXXXX's lawyer and the president of the XXXXXXXXXXXX, echoed XXXXXXXXXXXX's sentiments in their own comments. XXXXXXXXXXXX argued the "regime always uses this relationship with the West to project an image of importance...It allows him (Asad) to tell people: 'see, I'm needed and the West isn't interested in these (human rights) issues.'" -------------- MINOR DISSENT IN THE RANKS -------------- ¶7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX disagreed with XXXXXXXXXXXX on the DD's future effectiveness during the meeting, while XXXXXXXXXXXX withheld comment until afterwards when he could speak to us in private. XXXXXXXXXXXX said "The regime will not stop the movement through acts of dictatorship." The SARG crackdown, he argued, had not prevented the DD from continuing work and extending their organization. XXXXXXXXXXXX told us after the meeting XXXXXXXXXXXX was "a little out of touch" with the political reform movement as a whole, and the DD movement in particular, as a result of his imprisonment. He pointed out that XXXXXXXXXXXX had been put in jail before the DD was signed and was not fully informed of the organization's current status. ¶8. (C) When asked what concrete steps the DD would take in the future, XXXXXXXXXXXX said people were still very afraid of SARG reprisals and were currently focused on providing assistance to the families of political prisoners. He and XXXXXXXXXXXX requested U.S. monetary assistance in these efforts. -------------- NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶9. (C) Both XXXXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXXXX insisted the U.S. should work through the U.N. to pressure Syria instead of pursuing sanctions. They also said Western democracies could only foster civil society reform in Syria if they made human rights and civil society reform pre-conditions to engagement. XXXXXXXXXXXX pointed to CODELs Pelosi and Specter as examples of incidences where Western leaders came without any guarantees on human rights cases, received promises from the SARG for the release of specific individuals (refs E & F),only to have the SARG deny promises were made. Regarding CODEL Pelosi, XXXXXXXXXXXX stated that had Pelosi requested the release of Kamal Labwani prior to her arrival, the SARG might have done it. "To come and then ask for promises will get nothing; promises will be made, but will be worthless," XXXXXXXXXXXX said. ¶10. (C) When asked whether the National Salvation Front (NSF),a political opposition group in exile headed by former Syrian Vice President Khaddam and Muslim Brotherhood general supervisor Ali Sadr al'Din al-Bayanouni, represented a potential ally in political action, XXXXXXXXXXXX clearly stated they were not: "They are outside the country; what can they do without people inside the country?" ¶11. (C) COMMENT: Meeting activists of any stripe in Syria has always been fraught with difficulties. Since the SARG crackdown on the DD, however, activists have been particularly gun-shy; and after the alleged U.S. attack on Abu Kamal, direct contact with Syrians all but ceased. Therefore, Post considers the XXXXXXXXXXXX meeting to be a positive sign. While the "lenient" sentence of the DDNC might have played an encouraging role (ref D),fears that European engagement with SARG may go forward without human rights issues being front and center could also be a motivating factor. As the SARG steps from the wings onto the main international stage, activists may seek increased exposure as well. Post encourages the Department continue finding ways to provide direct financial assistance to the families of political prisoners through the Human Rights Defenders Fund. END COMMENT. CONNELLY