SENEGAL: DISMISSAL OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001325

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: DISMISSAL OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT
SETS THE STAGE FOR SUCCESSION BATTLE

Classified By: Classified by DCM Jay Smith for reasons 1.5 B/D.


1. (SBU) Summary and Introduction: On November 9, the
National Assembly voted 111 to 22 to remove Macky Sall from
his position as president of the National Assembly. The
sacking of Sall was the result of Sall's (likely politically
motivated) attempt a year ago to convoke President Abdoulaye
Wade's son Karim to testify before the National Assembly in
his role as chairman of ANOCI (the national agency for the
preparation for the Summit of the Organization of the Islamic
Conference - OIC). Sall immediately resigned from the ruling
Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) and as a result from his
positions as a deputy at the National Assembly and Mayor of
Fatick setting the stage for the upcoming succession battle.
End summary.

Origin of the Conflict: A Threat to the Would-Be Dauphin
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2. (SBU) Officially, Sall issued the request for Karim to
testify to clear up rampant rumors about misuse of state
funds and to inform the National Assembly about the progress
of preparations for the OIC Summit. However, it is commonly
believed by political observers in Dakar, both Senegalese and
diplomatic, that Sall, who is believed to have presidential
ambitions, wanted to publicly embarrass Karim. Ostensibly
this would have come about either through his inability to
properly account and explain how money is being spent or,
more likely, Karim Wade would have been posed questions in
Wolof (the most-widely spoken language in Senegal). Karim is
not a Wolof speaker and many believe that his inability to
either understand the questions or respond in Wolof would
have hurt his chances and been used against him during the
upcoming succession struggle.


3. (SBU) In any event, President Wade viewed the action by
his one-time political protg and prime minister from
2004-2007 as a grave political mistake for which Sall had to
pay "cash." Sall was immediately stripped, at President
Wade's direction, of his position as the titular number two
of the PDS and pressured to resign from his position as
president of the National Assembly. However, because the
position had a constitutionally mandated five-year term,
President Wade and his supporters in the National Assembly
could not force Sall to resign. President Wade temporarily
abandoned his efforts after the intervention of the new
caliph general of the Mourides Muslim brotherhood, of which
Wade is a member. However, he returned to the matter after
the summer recess of the National Assembly. His supporters
in the National Assembly modified the constitution at the
beginning of October to limit the term of the president of
the National Assembly (as well as that of the Senate) to one
year to allow for Sall's removal.

Where Does Sall Go from Here?
--------------


4. (C) In the immediate term Sall has opted to go to France.
The French ambassador told Ambassador that Sall fears for
his safety. While it is unclear if these fears are founded,
it is a truism of Senegalese politics that ambitious
political leaders that have fallen out of favor with or
challenge President Wade tend to find themselves spending
some time in prison. Former prime minister and rival to
Sall, Idrissa Seck first went to jail then into self-imposed
political exile in France following his falling out with
President Wade.

The Succession Battle Begins to Take Shape
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5. (C) Like Seck, Sall is likely to form a new liberal
political party in an attempt to set himself up to succeed
the 82-year-old Wade who is unlikely to run again at the end
of his term in 2012. ccording to political observers here,
Sall, who s the first and only member of the Halpular (Peul
or Fula and Toukoleur) ethnic group to become prie minister,
can likely count on a significant amunt of support from
members of his ethnic group (hich represents 24 percent of
the population) aswell as those of his wife, an ethnic Serer
(the erer make up about 15 percent of the population).


6. (C) This sets the stage for a succession batle on the
right. Seck has been in negotiation for a year now with
President Wade regarding the possibility of a rapprochement.
Seck has told us that his price for reconciliation is to be
publicly supported by Wade as his successor and to be made
the head of the ruling PDS. We suspect he would be satisfied
with getting the party. Meanwhile, Karim has begun to slowly
come out of the political closet. According to his advisers,

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he has come to the conclusion that he can successfully run
for president and has decided to do so. To that end, his
political support group, the "Generation du Concret," and
various &friends of Karim associations8 that he has set up
and seeded throughout the country will be participating in
the local and municipal elections scheduled for March 2009.
Karim himself is expected to try to become mayor of Dakar and
use this position as a platform from which to succeed his
father. Finally, the current mayor of Dakar and president of
the Senate, Pape Diop, is believed to have his own ambitions
for the top job. His position as Senate president makes him
the titular number two figure in the country. Moreover, were
Wade to leave office early, Diop would become acting
president and be responsible for organizing elections in 90
days. The Senegalese constitution does not bar him from
standing in those elections.

BERNICAT