FOOD DEFICIT REPORTED IN BENIN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000288 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W DANA BANKS AND AF/EPS STATE FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP JANET SPECK DAKAR FOR FAS ROBERT HANSON DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS USAID/WA FOR NATALIE FREEMAN AND USAID/AFR/DP FOR TIM LAVELLE E.O.12958:N/A TAGS: EAGREAIDPGOVPRELBN SUBJECT: FOOD DEFICIT REPORTED IN BENIN REF:(A) COTONOU 262 (B) COTONOU 255 1.(SBU) Summary: Benin's National Food Aid and Security Office, ONASA, provided the Embassy on May 15 with an estimate of Benin's food deficit over the coming months. According to ONASA, Benin will have a deficit of 50,000 tons of corn, 20,000 tons of rice, and 3,000 tons of beans between now and the end of the harvest in December 2008. A high-level source in the Ministry of Agriculture told the embassy that Benin is formulating a request for international assistance in procuring fertilizer, irrigation equipment, and wells but not direct food aid. The World Food Program (WFP) Coordinator for Food Security in Benin told Poloff the food security situation in Benin will not become a "catastrophe" but will be "serious", particularly in northern Benin. The public remains frustrated with rising prices (inflation reached 5.7% in March 2008) but there is no indication that this frustration will turn violent or present a serious challenge to the government. End Summary. -------------- Food Deficit Reported -------------- 2.(U) Following President Yayi's letter to President Bush (Ref A) and at the request of the Embassy, ONASA provided an estimate of Benin's food deficit until December 2008. The 2008 harvest will finish in northern Benin in December. According to ONASA's projections, Benin faces a deficit of 50,000 tons of corn, 20,000 tons of rice, and 3,000 tons of beans. The deficit quantity is based on an estimate of the amount of each foodstuff currently available for sale, the amount held by households, and the possibility of importing additional quantities of the foodstuff. Evariste Gounou, the ONASA official preparing this estimate, added that ONASA did not know the locations which would be most affected by the deficit nor if the GOB would need to procure the entire deficit amount to avoid a food crisis. The projected deficit in corn is significant, given that Benin traditionally imports more food than it produces and is usually self-sufficient in corn production. 3.(U) Benin's projected corn deficit, and the 90% increase in the price of corn between 2007 and 2008 (Ref B),is in part due to increased demand from Nigeria and Niger. According to GOB officials most corn leaves Benin "informally" and statistics on corn exports do not exist. The lack of such statistics makes it difficult to verify the estimated corn deficit. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the 2007 harvest produced approximately 760,000 tons of corn. Benin consumes annually approximately 574,000 tons of corn, according to ONASA. This leaves an apparent surplus of 186,000 tons of corn. However, according to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report and GOB officials, there is an intense demand from Nigeria, and to a lesser extent Niger, for Beninese corn. -------------- Government Responses -------------- 4.(SBU) Aly Bouco Imorou, the Ministry of Agriculture's Secretary General, told PolOff on May 15 that the GOB did not intend to request international food aid but would instead request assistance with procuring fertilizer, irrigation equipment, and wells to boost agricultural production. He told PolOff the Minister of Agriculture was reviewing the proposal and he expected it to be released by May ¶19. This corresponds with President Yayi's May 13 speech to agricultural school students in Parakou during which he called for an increase in agricultural productivity. 5.(SBU) In response to rising food prices, the GOB has continued to sell subsidized corn from its strategic reserves in Cotonou and other urban areas (Ref B). According to Irenee Aboudou, the Director General of ONASA, sales of subsidized corn average thirty tons a day in Cotonou. Representatives from ONASA and the WFP Food Security Coordinator told Poloff that ONASA is having difficulty finding additional corn in the market, at a price the GOB can afford, to replenish its stocks. In addition to subsidized food sales, the GOB announced on May 2 the creation of a crisis working group to monitor the production and sale of food. The GOB also announced a three month suspension of the value added tax on ordinary rice, wheat flower, milk, pasta, and tomato paste. -------------- Comment -------------- COTONOU 00000288 002 OF 002 6.(SBU)Comment: Benin certainly faces, along with its neighbors in the sub-region, the challenge of feeding its population in the face of rising prices. While the GOB took early action to respond to these increases, there now seems to be some confusion in the GOB response. President Yayi's letter to President Bush (Ref A) which alludes to the possibility of social unrest if food aid is not forthcoming does not correspond with an outline for assistance the Secretary General at the Ministry of Agriculture described. President Yayi's request for assistance also came before ONASA's efforts to create a food deficit estimate. The value of this estimate is hampered by the lack of statistics on Benin's corn exports. The threat of hunger due to rising prices is real in some parts of Benin, particularly the north and among poor urban city dwellers; though food substitution may alleviate some of these pressures. In spite of this threat Post continues to assess as low, the possibility of violence or social unrest resulting from rising food prices. End Comment. BOUSTANI