POLITICAL PARTIES NEGOTIATE PENDING OFFICIAL ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000281 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W DBANKS PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL BN SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTIES NEGOTIATE PENDING OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS REF: COTONOU 219 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Following the April 20, 2008 municipal elections, President Yayi has launched negotiations to bring representatives of opposition political parties into his government. Informal polling results published in the press continue to indicate that President Yayi's Force Cowry for an Emerging Benin (FCBE) grasped the majority of municipal posts nationwide, though it failed to win three major city halls in southern Benin. The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENA) has not yet released the official results of the April 20 election. The CENA conducted another round of polling on May 1 in areas where the April 20 polls did not take place or were nullified (Reftel). END SUMMARY. -------------- Renaissance of Benin did well on May 1 -------------- ¶2. (U) The CENA conducted new polling on May 1 in the six arrondissements in southern and central Benin where polling failed to take place on April 20 due to irregularities and logistics problems (Reftel). According to press reports, provisional results of the rescheduled polls point to the Renaissance of Benin (RB) party's victory in 5 arrondissements, followed by President Yayi's Force Cowry For an Emerging Benin (FCBE) in 1 arrondissement. The new polls in these 6 areas did not impact the initial general trends of the April 20 polls, which put RB ahead in the south and FCBE ahead in the north. -------------- FCBE's weakness in southern Benin -------------- ¶3. (U) Apart from FCBE's failure to win in the large southern cities of Cotonou, Porto-Novo and Abomey, its most striking defeat on April 20 occurred in Ouidah, where the Liberal Democrats' Rally for National Reconstruction-Vivoten (RDL-Vivoten),unexpectedly grasped the majority of the city council's seats. This defeat came in spite of the efforts of three ministers in Yayi's government, all natives of Ouidah, who campaigned hard for FCBE candidates. As reported in reftel, provisional results indicate that FCBE did not do well in Cotonou. However, according to a well-connected source in Cotonou's city hall, the CENA may proceed with massive vote cancellations in some of Cotonou's polling stations due to errors made by election workers. These cancellations could favor FCBE. In spite of FCBE's failure to win the big cities in the south, provisional results continue to show that FCBE has taken control of 52 communes (mostly in Northern Benin) out of 77 nationwide. -------------- -------------- President Yayi starts negotiations with opposition parties -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) According to a source close to RB party leader and former Beninese president Nicephore Soglo, party leaders are negotiating with Yayi over entering his government, but doubt Yayi's good faith and sincerity. Press reports indicate that President Yayi is also negotiating with representatives of the G13, a group of minor parties which stood against FCBE in the municipal elections, and representatives of the Party of Democratic Renewal (PRD) and the Social Democrat Party (PSD). It appears doubtful that PRD leader Adrien Houngbedji, who nourishes presidential ambitions for 2011, will enter the government as he will want to run against Yayi's performance in 2011. -------------- CENA delays final poll results -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The CENA announced that it would publish the official election results on May 5 but did not. An official from CENA's Permanent Secretariat (SAP-CENA) told post that the CENA continues to tally the votes and that results would not be released for at least another 10 days. He added that the CENA's president is coming under increasing pressure to release the results from the leaders of the political parties. After the CENA releases the results, they still must be validated by the Supreme Court. The validation process may take some time because of appeals voters can make to contest the results. A Supreme Court judge told post that the Supreme Court has already received over 200 appeals from voters and that those could increase in number upon the CENA's release of the official results. He added that a large part of the election contestations might be declared inadmissible by the Supreme Court for lack of evidence. -------------- COTONOU 00000281 002 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The results of the 20 April and 1 May municipal and local elections are a barometer for President Yayi to gauge his popularity and to re-direct his political management, particularly in Cotonou. It appears that many in Cotonou did not vote for President Yayi's FCBE because they did not agree with his policy, the poor quality of some of the candidates FCBE presented, and suspicion of Yayi as a "northerner". FCBE's failure to take Cotonou was a major setback, and surprise, for President Yayi who now turns to his former opponents to bring them into the government. President Yayi is trying to bring these other parties into the government as he seeks to satisfy parties' claims to participate in his government and to build a coalition for his victory in the 2011 presidential elections. A win for him in 2011 will be contingent upon his ability to win back the political allies who supported him in 2006 while also implementing his political and economic agenda. END COMMENT. BOUSTANI