OVERVIEW OF BENIN'S DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COTONOU 000207 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/EPS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID KDEM PINR BN SUBJECT: OVERVIEW OF BENIN'S DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE REF: A. COTONOU 202 ¶B. COTONOU 201 ¶C. COTONOU 0196 ¶D. COTONOU 0197 ¶E. COTONOU 0104 ¶F. COTONOU 0043 ¶G. 07 COTONOU 817 COTONOU 00000207 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Gayleatha Brown. Reasons: 1.4 (b&d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Fully cognizant of the very public tilt in the political balance of power towards his opponents, President Boni Yayi has undertaken a full court press to regain the momentum of his triumphs in the March 2006 presidential and March 2007 legislative elections. At stake is regaining control of the National Assembly by his FCBE political alliance and the bid to wrestle control in April 20 municipal elections from the opposition in Benin's key cities of Cotonou and Parakou. His drive includes unusual overtures for dialogue with opposition party leaders and a lobbying campaign for donors' continued support of Benin's fledgling democracy, which he considers to be "under siege." Following polemics around 50,000 missing blank voters' cards, consideration of a third postponement of the election date, and charges and countercharges between FCBE and opposition parties, President Yayi's April 9 nationwide address on television and radio called for solidarity and mutual understanding. Meanwhile, the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENA) officially launched the electoral campaign. Post recommends that the USG continues to support Yayi's development and anticorruption program and efforts to strengthen democracy and the independence of the judiciary and to so state in upcoming Mission talks with the GOB on a range of cooperation programs. End Summary. //CORRUPTION LINKED TO LEADERS OF OPPOSITION PARTIES// ¶2. (C) President Yayi had resisted dialogue with old guard opposition leaders widely believed to be corrupt or to have gained excessive wealth at the expense of Benin's majority poor population. On assuming office in April 2006, he found an empty national treasury and embarked on an ambitious program to collect revenues from sale of the nation's primary cash crop cotton and fees from the Port of Cotonou, disrupting established and lucrative illegal operations associated with members of the previous Kerekou government and opposition political parties. Government-wide audits tracked missing funds and became the basis for prosecution of wealthy opposition members, including National Assembly Deputies for whom he sought lifting of legislative immunity. However, his bid to wrestle control of local governments in Cotonou and Parakou resulted in unification of the country's major opposition parties, including former President and current Cotonou Mayor Nicephore Soglo, a popular figure in Cotonou and Abomey, and PRD leader Adrien Houngbedji popular in Porto Novo, the country's legislative capital (Ref B). ¶3. (C) The resulting political free-for-all has threatened the April 20, 2008 local elections and cast a pall over the democratic process in Benin in an environment of tension and stress exacerbated by poor election organization and allegations of electoral fraud, including the arrest and release of eleven persons for theft of 50,000 blank voters' cards (Ref A),and a micro-credit situation threatening a stellar NGO, PADME, which upset powerful market women (Ref D) in addition to ongoing power and water cuts. Meanwhile, the GOB has moved to stabilize key consumer prices to forestall popular unrest and demonstrated a massive show of force in face of a spectacular day light robbery at the principal market in Cotonou (Ref C). //YAYI SEEKS CONTINUED DONOR SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY PROGRAM // ¶4. (C) Eager to gauge donor sentiment about recent political developments and to explain his position, Yayi and his wife hosted several ambassadors and spouses April 6 for dinner at their private residence to celebrate his second year in office. Yayi questioned the rationale for a donor position that encouraged him to engage the mostly corrupt opposition and to negotiate with lawbreakers and election saboteurs. He said that Benin's democracy was under attack by those threatened by his anticorruption program, who are using the judiciary and National Assembly to thwart progress. COTONOU 00000207 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Yet, President Yayi felt pressured to engage such opponents in a dialogue and asked for comments. Reaction was interesting. Before that discussion, the French had quietly left. (Note: The French reportedly supported Yayi's opponent Houngbedji's candidacy for president in 2006 and awarded him "Commandeur de la legion d'honneur Francaise" on November 15, ¶2007. Some observers in Benin contend that a well-organized smear campaign against Yayi in France and in Benin is run by Joel Aivo, Advisor to Houngbedji, who is said to have strong ties to France. End note.) The Ambassadors of China, Cuba and Venezuela said nothing. ¶6. (C) On the other hand, those included in the "western" group (USA, Germany, Brazil, The Netherlands and the EU) creatively supported free speech, inclusion, dialogue with the opposition, and regular communication with the population to explain his program and developments. The Dean of the Diplomatic Corps and Russian Ambassador applauded efforts to date to strengthen Benin's democracy and encouraged Yayi to stay the course. Yayi's team members present included the Special Advisor for Diplomatic Affairs, the two Ministers of State (Economy, Development and Public Evaluation and National Defense),and the two chief protocol officers from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Presidency. Yayi's subsequent April 9 nationwide message on T.V. and radio appealed for solidarity and mutual understanding in the run-up to the elections and beyond. The CENA also officially launched the electoral campaign after talks between the GOB and CENA (Ref A). ¶7. (C) As discussed in monthly meetings, donor (western group) reactions to the current scene note President Yayi,s political naivete and "quick draw" responses to situations that often create problems for his administration; detrimental centralization of power in the presidency; slow disbursement of assistance; and need for reinforcement of democratic capacity and institutions. //KEY PLAYER POSITIONS// ¶8. (C) Mr. Albert Tevoedjre, the Mediator of the Republic, who seeks a compromise between the GOB and opposition parties, is perceived by the latter as favoring the GOB (Ref B). In a conversation with the Ambassador before the April 7 boycott by opposition Deputies of the First Ordinary Session of the National Assembly, Tevoedjre affirmed that opposition parties, antics have undermined election preparations and that entrenched interests resent Yayi,s anticorruption stand. In post's view, this is largely the case. However, with Mayor Soglo, there is a slightly different perspective. In several conversations with the Ambassador, he has referred to Yayi's lack of respect and appreciation for Soglo's role in his success, including appointment to the West African Development Bank before winning the presidential election in ¶2006. An affronted Soglo views Yayi, a former advisor in the Mayor's cabinet, as the "junior" whom he had mentored but who now fails to seek his guidance and counsel. ¶9. (C) In Soglo's view, Yayi largely mismanages the Administration. However, it is only recently, since the bid to dethrone him from his Mayor's seat, has Soglo turned vicious, joining those widely perceived as responsible for many of Benin's current problems (Ref B). Moreover, Soglo's son Galiou, the current Minister of Sports, Youth and Leisure, also told the Ambassador that he was obliged to publicly condemn his father's association with the G-4, because "his position was wrong." This precipitated a crisis with his parents (including mother Rosine Soglo, also a leader of the Renaissance of Benin Party (RB)),both of whom, according to Beninese observers, favor the second brother Lehady, currently Deputy Mayor of Cotonou and point man for Soglo in local Cotonou politics. ¶10. (C) Mr. Jerome Dandjinou, the FCBE candidate for the Cotonou Mayor's position, current Port Director and key MCC interlocutor, told the Ambassador that Soglo,s recent antics were instigated out of fear of losing his position. In his view, Soglo considers Dandjinou to be a real threat, well aware of the FCBE mayoral candidate's stellar record of good management while he was in the Mayor's office (Ref B). ¶11. (C) Comment: Post recommends that the USG continues to support President Yayi's anticorruption program and efforts to strengthen democracy and the independence of the judiciary COTONOU 00000207 003.2 OF 003 and to so state in upcoming Mission talks with the GOB on a range of bilateral cooperation programs. BROWN