Climate: Danes Looking Past Poznan to COP-15

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000625 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KGHG SENV ENRG DA SUBJECT: Climate: Danes Looking Past Poznan to COP-15 REF: COPENHAGEN 01 STATE 119282 COPENHAGEN 00000625 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a Noveber 25 meeting with DCM, Prime Minister Rasmussens climate advisor, Ambassador Bo Lidegaard, shard Denmark's raised hopes and concerns about the rod toward a global climate agreement in Copenhage at the COP-15 meeting in December 2009. Lidegard welcomed early signals from President-elect Obma on climate policy, but said they raise new cocerns about the negotiation process which Denmark opes to discuss with transition members before January 20. Of foremost concern is the need to continue a U.S.-led major economies process to drive negotiations on substantive issues forward between a series of head of state summits in 2009. Denmark wants its Prime Minister to be included in that grouping. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) DCM and REO met with Lidegaard on November 25. Lidegaard heads the Prime Minister's climate secretariat, which coordinates all aspects of Denmark's climate policy in the run-up to COP-15 (Ref A),involving eight ministries and the political parties in the governing coalition. Collaboration on Climate Change Negotiations -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The DCM noted Denmark's leadership role in international climate change negotiations as host of COP-15, and thanked Lidegaard for Denmark's helpful interventions at the UNFCC ministerial in Accra and within the EU Environment Council to encourage major developing nations to assume greater responsibility under a post-Kyoto climate framework. The DCM added that the U.S. agreed with Denmark on the need to engage major developing nations like China and India in the negotiations leading to COP-15. The upcoming COP-14 in Poznan, he suggested, presented opportunities for U.S.-Denmark engagement on climate policy, including with members of the U.S. Congress. Danish Concerns: Translating Substance -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Lidegaard said Denmark was eager to engage with the incoming Administration and was "extremely encouraged" by President-elect Obama's early emphasis on climate and energy issues. The Danish government interprets the President-elect's post-electoral statements on climate and economic issues to signal a "Big Bang" approach to address looming crises, and Denmark now hopes the new Administration will reveal an integrated plan of action on the economy and climate upon taking office on January 20. Denmark sees similar willingness to act on climate change in the Chinese government, he said. ¶5. (SBU) Lidegaard said President-elect Obama's post-electoral statements have "alleviated some of Denmark's concerns" as host of COP-15, "but raised new ones." First among those relates to what Denmark perceives as becoming its main task as host--i.e. "translating" the U.S. and Chinese approaches to the climate issue, which arise from different domestic contexts, to the international context of the UNFCCC negotiations. These approaches differ sharply in form and substance, he said, and will be "hard to reconcile." ¶6. (SBU) Elaborating briefly, Lidegaard said Denmark believes the incoming U.S. Administration will "certainly not move (in climate negotiations) without Congress being on board." Turning to China, Lidegaard said he was impressed by the depth of Chinese engagement on the climate issue. While authoritarian, the Chinese government is "extraordinarily sensitive to its own domestic constituencies." That sensitivity is reflected in the Chinese National Development Planning Commission, which has the lead on the climate issue. ¶7. (SBU) To succeed in mediating between the U.S. and China (and presumably India as well),he said, the Chinese would need to be assured the U.S. would do "x and y and z" and the U.S. would need similar assurances of Chinese commitments. Denmark hopes to assist in this process by assuming the role of mediator/host. ¶8. (SBU) Turning to the EU, Lidegaard said, it would be "no trivial matter" to reach consensus on the climate and energy package by the COPENHAGEN 00000625 002.2 OF 002 end of the year, since its 27 members represent a "microcosm of the world" on the climate issue. Nevertheless, he assured us "we (the EU) will certainly resolve that by December," albeit with "much blood on the floor." Ultimately, Denmark believes the U.S., Chinese and EU approaches must be "brought into synch," and it sees its own role as working toward that end. More Concerns: Timing/Process/Level/Inclusion -------------- - ¶9. (SBU) Beyond the substance of negotiations to come, Lidegaard fretted over the process to achieve a global agreement in Copenhagen, Denmark's ultimate goal. In Poznan, Denmark will seek to insert language permitting UNFCC to add to its set schedule of four meetings in 2009. But to be successful, the UNFCCC negotiation will need reinforcement from heads of government. To do so required continuation of "something akin to the Major Economies Process" begun last year, as well as programmed meetings of heads of government, to advance and "bless" the negotiation process from a higher political level. Denmark assumes the new Administration may modify the MEM grouping, and wishes its Prime Minister to be included in the future, given his unique role as host of COP-15, Lidegaard said. ¶10. (SBU) Lidegaard listed four key opportunities in 2009 to build negotiating momentum leading to Copenhagen at COP-15: --the U.S. Administration's policy pronouncements upon taking office in January; --the G20 summit on the financial crisis, probably in London, by April 30; --the mid-July G8 plus MEM summit, hosted by Italy; and --the UNSYG High Level segment prior to UNGA. ¶11. (SBU) Lidegaard said Denmark is eager for opportunities to engage the incoming Administration to share its views on the procedural way ahead before January 20, and is eagerly awaiting further U.S. signals, including whether the incoming Administration names a "climate czar" to oversee U.S. engagement on the issue. Concluding, he said the Danish government wished to pursue a "joint vision" in cooperation with the U.S., and hopes to build upon existing contacts with transition officials. Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Danish aspirations to mediate between the U.S., China/India, and the EU strike us as complementary to U.S. interests. We have encouraged the Danes to engage with U.S. officials in Poznan and Lidegaard assured us they would attempt to do so.