Climate Change: Denmark Restructures to Host COP-15

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 COPENHAGEN 000601 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG DA SUBJECT: Climate Change: Denmark Restructures to Host COP-15 REF: A. STATE 116939 B: COPENHAGEN 501 COPENHAGEN 00000601 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) This cable responds to questions posed in Ref A. ¶Q. Has your host government altered its bureaucratic structure for addressing climate change over the past 12-18 months? If so, how? How might upcoming elections affect current policy positions and entities? ¶A. Yes. The Danish Government created a new Ministry of Climate and Energy in November 2007, shortly after the re-election of the coalition government headed by Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, of the Liberal Party (Venstre). National elections are not required again until 2011, but could be called at any time. There is persistent speculation that Rasmussen may consider leaving his post should an appropriate EU or NATO position become available. Should he do so, national elections might occur but are not required. Connie Hedegaard, a leading member of the Conservative Party, which forms part of the governing coalition, and who formerly served as Environment Minister, was appointed as Denmark's first Minister of Climate and Energy in November 2007. (Note: Hedegaard was recently passed over as Conservative party leader, but press speculated that she might instead become Foreign Minister in the future, assuming she handled COP-15 successfully.) Preparing for COP-15 -------------- Denmark has also established a new inter-agency coordinating structure, located in the Prime Minister's office, to oversee planning and preparing for COP-15. The senior body overseeing strategic issues and planning for the conference is the Danish Government's Climate Conference Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister and including the Ministers for Climate Change and Energy; Foreign Affairs; Development Cooperation; Finance; Economy and Business Affairs; Environment; Transport; and Science, Technology and Innovation. Below this, the Permanent Secretaries Group is made up of the civil service heads of the same ministries. Both of these bodies are supported by the Climate Secretariat, which comprises representatives from each of the same ministries. The Secretariat is headed by Bo Lidegaard, Head of the Climate Division in the Danish Prime Minister's Department (and career diplomat); the Secretariat reports to the Climate Conference Committee through the Permanent Secretaries Group. A smaller grouping comprising the permanent secretaries of the Departments of the Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs, and Climate Change and Energy, and their representatives in the Secretariat (including climate negotiator Thomas Becker) meets about once every three weeks to discuss strategic issues. The Danish Government has also established country task forces to consider strategic issues relating to key countries (Brazil, Russia, China, India, USA, South Africa, Indonesia and Bangladesh). Recently, the government has launched several cross-ministerial working groups to focus on climate change related issues. The "green growth" group focuses on agriculture and food production role in climate change. The "sustainable transport" group is tasked with addressing growing emissions from the Danish traffic sector. COP-15 Logistics Planning -------------- The MFA is responsible for logistical planning for COP-15. Svend Olling, Head of the COP-15 Secretariat in MFA, shared the following logistical information at a briefing of the diplomatic corps on September 30. The UNFCCC will handle all COP-15 accreditation issues. With the prospect of an agreement at COP-15, UNFCCC is projecting accreditation of 12-15,000 conference participants. The government has hired a professional conference organizer, the firm NGH, to handle conference accommodations. (The Danish Government website for the COP is http://www.cop15.dk/en and for NGH is cop15@nhg.dk.) NGH has reserved 10,000 hotel rooms in the metro Copenhagen area. (Note: per the Department's instructions, we have requested 250 for the U.S. delegation). COPENHAGEN 00000601 002.2 OF 004 Delegation rooms of varying sizes are being constructed at a special temporary pavilion connected to the Bella Center, the convention center where the official COP-15 meetings will take place. Requests made before June 24, 2009 will be accommodated. COP-15 official transportation will consist of a limo (for two passengers) and a van (for eight),per delegation. A combination of public transportation and shuttles will be available for others. A business conference called "Bright Green" will coincide with COP-15, but will take place at another Copenhagen venue on December 5-6. Taking the Initiative -------------- Denmark's lead climate negotiator is Thomas Becker, Deputy Permanent Secretary for Global Climate in the Climate and Energy Ministry. Hired under the government that preceded the Fogh Rasmussen-led coalitions, Becker can be a difficult interlocutor. Becker is a former boxer and can be critical of USG positions in private, but excuses his bluntness as a form of "tough love." In a recent meeting with the DCM he expressed willingness to engage more frequently with the Embassy in the run-up to COP-15. He is currently visiting the U.S., where the Danish Embassy is attempting to arrange meetings with the incoming Obama Administration. Denmark's climate diplomacy is explicitly intended to improve the chances of securing an "ambitious international climate protocol." It includes the Greenland Dialogue (inviting world leaders to visit Greenland to witness global warming effects on outlet glaciers there),bilateral negotiations and public diplomacy initiatives. Climate Attaches Sent to Key Capitals -------------- In August, Minister Hedegaard appointed five new climate attaches to serve in Danish Embassies in Washington, New Delhi, Moscow, Pretoria, and Brasilia. Their task is to work with host governments to help Denmark, as host, prepare for a successful COP-15 meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. The new attaches are responsible for covering their region to identify the key players, collect information and establish partnerships with local groups. They are members of embassy staff, but are responsible solely for climate and energy issues. The five are: Hans Jakob Eriksen (posted to Washington, DC),Steven Foster (Moscow),Tine Lund (Brasilia), Thomas Haahr (New Delhi) and Peter Krogh Soerensen (Pretoria). Eriksen, 44, is well and favorably known to the Embassy and comes from a position in the Climate Ministry. The Ambassador hosted four of the five new attaches at a lunch in their honor at his residence in August, before they departed for their postings (for a full report on the meeting, see Ref B). According to Eriksen, the naming of the five attaches grew out of Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard's push for greater reporting on climate negotiations from embassies in these key capitals. Lund more diplomatically credited the PM's office for the initiative. Eriksen said the attaches would go beyond reporting to conduct climate diplomacy (by "offering suggestions" to host nations) to build consensus in favor of an agreement in Copenhagen. The four attaches we met said they were meeting for the first time as a group. Two hailed from the Climate ministry (Eriksen and Lund); Foster, a career commercial diplomat, and Soerensen, a former military officer who has been working with the UN and NGOs in Iraq and the Middle East on humanitarian assistance, admitted they are new to the subject of climate change. Only Foster had served in an embassy before (including to Moscow). Eriksen said he had been selected by Becker for the Washington posting after having accompanied Hedegaard on her numerous visits to the U.S. over the past year. Hedegaard has made encouraging U.S. participation in the negotiation to replace the Kyoto Protocol a top Danish priority. Eriksen had accompanied Climate Minister Hedegaard to meetings this summer in Washington with Obama and McCain climate advisors. The Ambassador encouraged Eriksen to make contact with U.S. negotiators at State/CEQ/NSC as well. Echoing Minister Hedegaard, the attaches described themselves as COPENHAGEN 00000601 003.2 OF 004 "realistic" about chances a binding treaty could be signed at the COP-15 meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. Eriksen speculated that something short of that might instead be achieved. For example, there might be an agreement "with holes in it to be filled later." ¶2. (SBU) Q. To what extent are new ministries or foreign offices strengthening their embassies in Washington to represent views on climate change to the U.S. Executive Branch and Congress? ¶A. In addition to naming Eriksen as climate attache, the Danish Embassy in Washington has been actively pushing climate diplomacy with the USG and society over the past year. Minister Hedegaard travels regularly to Washington, and partly as a result of Codel visits to observe warming first-hand in Greenland, has developed a range of personal contacts in Congress (including with Senators McCain and Boxer, Representative Markey, and Speaker Pelosi). According to her staff, Hedegaard has had contact with advisors to the McCain, Obama and Clinton campaigns over the past year, and has personally conducted outreach to Hill staffers and members. The Danish Embassy has also maintained dialogue and conducted outreach to the Department and on the Hill on climate issues. This month, the Danes joined with the embassies of France and Poland to host a conference entitled "Rising to the Challenge of Climate Change Globally and in the United States," where U/S Dobriansky gave an address. ¶3. (SBU) Q. To what extent have your colleagues in other embassies sought you out to discuss the climate change issue or current and prospective U.S. policy on climate change? ¶A. We have not received many inquiries, but we maintain regular contact with counterparts in the British Embassy on climate issues, and are considering some joint events that could involve other embassies (e.g. visits to Danish innovation sites). We plan to reach out to other embassies here, especially the Swedes, French, and Canadians, to propose regular dialogue in the lead-up to COP-15. ¶4. (SBU) Q. How much of a restructuring has your government actually done to create the new ministry? What existing entities were simply rolled into the new ministry? What new entities have they set up within the new organization? Do you have details on the budget and number of employees in the new entities? In your judgment, are these entities making meaningful contributions to the domestic and international debate on climate change? ¶A. According to ministry sources, under Hedegaard's leadership, the Climate Minister's office has grown from an initial staff of 50 to a present size of around 90. Of these, 35 staff are dedicated primarily to preparing for COP-15. The Ministry's more technical Energy Agency has also been boosted, by 17 new staffers. The Climate and Energy Ministry retains the energy agencies of the pre-existing Transport and Energy Ministry. These include the Danish Energy Agency, the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, the Danish Meteorological Institute, the North Sea Partner and the North Sea Foundation, the Energy Savings Trust, the Energy Board of Appeal, Energinet.dk state-owned company, and the Danish Energy Regulatory Agency. While the transportation elements were lost to a separate ministry during restructuring, the Climate and Energy Ministry acquired the climate diplomacy function from the Environment Ministry that Hedegaard had formerly headed. The ministry's core budget rose 8% from 2007 to 2008, to $310 million. The government has allocated an additional $41 million has been dedicated solely to preparations for COP-15. Evaluating Performance -------------- The new Climate and Energy Ministry has had notable success shifting Government climate policy towards actively promoting an international climate agreement at COP-15. It is worth noting that in his first government which took office in 2001, Prime Minister Rasmussen had appointed notable climate skeptic Bjorn Lomborg to head the Environmental Analysis Institute, and had frozen new taxes, limiting resources for new renewable energy research and incentives. But after winning the right to host COP-15 and at Hedegaard's COPENHAGEN 00000601 004.2 OF 004 urging, the Government has become a very active promoter of an "ambitious" international climate agreement in Copenhagen. In doing so, Denmark's government has highlighted its own record on energy, and portrayed itself as leading the climate debate by example. Since the oil crisis of the 1970s, Denmark has successfully pursued energy independence, reducing its dependence on energy imports from 95% in 1980 to becoming a net energy exporter since ¶1998. It has done so by developing and promoting energy efficiency, renewable energy and increasing its exploitation of domestic hydrocarbon resources in the North Sea. Between 1990 and 2007, production of renewable energy in Denmark increased by 170% and today accounts for 19.1% of Denmark's total energy use. Most notably, wind capacity remains the highest per capita in the world, wind power accounting for 18.8% of Denmark's domestic electricity supply in 2007. Exports of wind and other innovative energy technologies more than doubled from 2000 to 2007, to US$9 billion, comprising 9.2% of Danish exports. The Government has also stepped up its international climate diplomacy efforts. The Prime Minister and the Climate and Energy Minister have both visited China, India and the U.S. regularly over the past year to promote progress towards a COP-15 accord. Denmark has played an active role in climate negotiations within the EU and UN frameworks. (Denmark has also directly participated in the MEM process by joining EU delegations there.) Denmark has repeatedly called for the United States to "take steps first" on climate, asserting this would create momentum for China and others to follow. Ambitious Goals -------------- Denmark has been active supporting ambitious climate policies and targets within the EU. Denmark has committed to increase its use of renewables to 20% by 2011 and by 30% by 2020. In accordance with EU goals, Denmark must reduce average emissions of greenhouse gases in the period 2008-2012 by 21% in relation to the base period of 1990-1995. Danish Energy Authority statistics for 2007 report that overall (adjusted) CO2 emissions have already fallen 13.3% below 1990 levels. Denmark's per capita C02 emissions had fallen 18.3% during the same period. The Danish government announced a national energy policy for 2008-2011 in February, with support from nearly all parties represented in parliament. Notably, the policy commits the nation to reducing its overall energy consumption by 2% reduction by 2011, from 2006 levels. Skeptics Remain -------------- Critics point out that despite its international activism on the climate issue, the Rasmussen governments have failed to keep pace domestically. They point out that though its share of domestic electricity production has declined steadily since 1990, coal still supplies the majority of Danish power generation (57%). They charge that investment in renewable energy technology has leveled off after rapid growth under the previous governing coalition, and wind developments onshore have been limited to upgrading old wind turbines. The government has countered criticism by creating new programs for public outreach like the "One Ton Less" energy awareness campaign which won EU kudos recently, and naming several "Energy Cities" to reward progress. Minister Hedegaard recently announced that the government had doubled funding for energy and climate research and development over the past four years (to $129 million). Denmark's international climate efforts have been popular and boosted domestic support for the government. After COP-14 in Poznan, Denmark will be challenged to transition from a position of international advocacy to the role of good host.