TFGG01: DENMARK FIRM ON RUSSIA, CONCERNED ABOUT

S E C R E T COPENHAGEN 000436 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM OSCE UN GG RS DA SUBJECT: TFGG01: DENMARK FIRM ON RUSSIA, CONCERNED ABOUT U.S.-EU DIFFERENCES REF: STATE 87254 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Bill Mozdzierz, reasons 1.4b,d ¶1. (U) Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller warned publicly August 13 that Denmark will have to "reconsider" its relationship with Russia if Russian forces are in violation of the agreed cease-fire. Moeller, speaking after the GAERC EU foreign ministers meeting that day, acknowledged that Georgia had made mistakes, but asserted that the main responsibility lies with Russia for escalating the conflict. The Danish foreign minister also argued that, having encouraged Georgia to approach the West, we in NATO and the EU cannot now "turn our backs" on the country. ¶2. (S/NF) In response to August 14 reftel demarche, Danish MFA Head of Department for Eastern Europe (A/S-equivalent) Ruben Madsen underlined that Danish indignation at Russian behavior has been tempered by the recognition that Georgia has suffered a "catastrophic" loss and that there is no turning back the clock to August 6. Madsen welcomed our points and the President's August 13 statement, and indicated that the Danes will press the Russians on abiding by the cease-fire and allowing humanitarian access. Madsen also stressed the importance of getting more international observers, ideally from the EU, on the ground as soon as possible. He noted, however, that Danish military analysts remain unconvinced (despite a steady stream of reports from our defense attache's office) that Russian activities are inconsistent with the terms of the cease-fire, especially given the apparent latitude the agreement offers the Russians. ¶3. (C) Insisting that divisions within the EU over the conflict have been exaggerated, Madsen voiced concern about allowing differences to grow between the American and EU approaches to Russia in the weeks ahead. We cannot abandon the Georgians and we cannot allow Russian hegemony to go unchecked, Madsen agreed, but we must also recognize that Russia has won a clear military victory that will not be undone by sanctions. Moreover, Russia has responded to Western pressure and demonstrated some restraint in Georgia, as FM Moeller also noted in his remarks. Madsen expressed hope that Secretary Rice's consultations in Paris and Tbilisi would help bring U.S. and European views "closer together." CAIN